959: Week 15 Sleepers

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 959 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's sleeper show was a little disappointing. The quarterback streamers were fine, but none of them were great. I'd call it a pretty mediocre week on that front. Nick Westbrook-Akine did nothing. Dontavian Wicks, Elijah Moore, and Wondell Robinson were kind of bleh. And the deep sleepers of Trey Tucker and Parker Washington, they were bad picks. Now on the plus side, I had one of the best sleeper calls of the season with Tim Patrick. Sincere McCormick had a decent day, and Brandon Cooks found the end zone too. I talked up Isaiah Davis elsewhere, but didn't have the Breece Hall information by the time that this show went out. So, I wasn't able to officially lock him in as a sleeper. Unfortunately. It was a pretty bad week overall, though. It's the fantasy playoffs now, so I really want to end the season on a high note, so let's get to this. But before we get to the sleepers, I want to remind you to check out Underdog. Right now over on Underdog, you can enter into Snake Drash for this week's Slay to Games, but there are playoff contests available for you too. If you think you have a better grasp on the league's playoff picture than others, then you can have a serious edge right now in those contests. To check them out and more, head to underdogfantasy.com or download the Underdog app. When you sign up, of course, use promo code LATEROUND. That will get you a really nice deposit offer as well as my rest of season rankings if you still want those. That's underdogfantasy.com, promo code LATEROUND.

Now as usual, we'll start with a look at players rostered in 10-50% of Yahoo leagues, and we'll look at quarterbacks. And we'll start with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers had his first 300-yard game in ages last week. He gets a Jags defense this week that's the best matchup at the NFL for quarterbacks. On the season, the Jags have allowed the most adjusted fantasy points to the position. They lead the league, and adjusted passing yards allowed too. The Jets have an okay enough 22-point implied team total, so I think Rodgers can find your line up as like a QB2 this week. Jameis Winston as well. The Browns get the Chiefs, and Kansas City has been a slightly above average opponent for quarterbacks this year. Cleveland has an implied team total over 20 points, so it's not like sportsbooks think that they won't be able to score. And look, the bottom line is that Jameis Winston has gotten it done since becoming a starter, at least from a fantasy perspective. He's averaged over 20 standard fantasy points per game, and his average opponent has ranked 23rd in adjusted points allowed to the position, meaning they've been far below average from a matchup standpoint. Kansas City is 13th, so I think Winston is a solid enough bet this week. Now at running back, I'm going to just quickly call out Patrick Taylor if Isaac Garendo can't go on Thursday. At this moment, I don't know if Garendo will be in or out, but if he's out, I'd anticipate Taylor getting most of the work in that backfield, or at least leading that backfield in touches. And the Rams are a pretty average matchup overall for running backs. Next is Sincere McCormick, who still needs to be rostered in way more leagues. The Raiders get the Falcons, and Atlanta's low-key actually been pretty good against running backs this year. It's their secondary that's the bigger problem. But even if Alexander Madison is able to play, the Raiders may just give McCormick a shot to be the early-down guy. That's what Antonio Pierce essentially said on Wednesday. And it's a game where Vegas is only a 3.5-point underdog. Maybe this game ends up being closer. That matters a lot because the Raiders have used Amir Abdullah as their pass catcher even during this sincere McCormick stretch. So I have McCormick as a higher-end RB3 this week. In that same game as Tyler Algier, because there's a chance that game script doesn't go the way that we think, and Atlanta does do well against the Raiders, Algier could be in play. He's seen running back rushers of 29%, 23.5% and 36% in three of his last four games. Vegas is a team that you can definitely run on. They're below average in running back rush yards allowed versus expected, and they rank in the top 10 as an opponent for running backs and adjusted points allowed. Now, Bijon Robinson should have a big day, but Algier might be able to sneak in 8 to 10 carries. That makes him a deep league flex option. And then a more obvious sleeper this week is Isaiah Davis. As I said in the 50 Transaction Show, the Jets really made their backfield a 50-50 split this past week without Breece Hall, and it's not sounding great for Hall this week. And the Jets get the Jags, the second best matchup for running backs by adjusted points allowed. Braylon Allen is obviously in play, but this is a great spot for Davis in your flex too. Now, wide receiver this week, even if Vlad McConkey is back, I don't think Quinton Johnston is a terrible play, and Josh Palmer works here too. But QJ had a 24% target share this past week without McConkey. Palmer had a season-high 31% target share, and now they get a better matchup this week against the Buccaneers. It's a team that ranks as a top 10 favorable opponent for wide receivers by adjusted points allowed. If McConkey goes, I think there's way more volatility, but they're still viable in deeper formats. The Browns could be getting Cedric Tillman back this week, but like I've talked about before in the show, each of those wide receivers, they play a specific role in the offense. For Elijah Moore, it's more of a slot role. He's usually in the 60 to 70 percent slot range. More than Jerry Judy, more than Cedric Tillman. Well, the Browns get the Chiefs this week, and Kansas City is the number one team in adjusted slot target share allowed to wide receivers, meaning teams against the Chiefs are using their slot wide outs more than usual. A lot more than usual. And that could really benefit more this week, especially with David and Joku now banged up. Now another slot matchup to target this week is Demario Douglas. He's averaging a target share per game rate of about 22 percent in completed games with Drake May. And while his ceiling hasn't been super high, his floor is okay in PPR formats. This week the Patriots get the Cardinals. Arizona hasn't been a great matchup for wide receivers this year, but they've allowed a well above average yards per out run to the slot, as well as the 7th highest adjusted target share to that area of the field. Douglas has run 78 percent of his routes from the slot this year, so the matchup is there. Nick Westbrook-Akene did not come through last week, really for the first time in a while. He also saw just a 6 percent target share when he had seen three straight games with at least a 20 percent target share. This week, the Titans are involved in a game with a 46.5 point total. That's not bad for them.