955: Week 14 Sleepers

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 955 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. Last week, Sleeper Show was pretty solid. Russell Wilson, Bryce Young and Drake May were all viable streamers. That was a plus. Antonio Gipson had his best fantasy outing of the season. Adam Thielen had a big day. Hunter Henry was a top 10 tight end. Even Tommy Tremble and Theo Johnson were decent. And the wide receivers with hyphenated last names, they both found the end zone. Now, on the flip side, I did say it was going to be a Lad McConkey day, given the matchup in Atlanta, but I called out Josh Palmer too. He did next to nothing. The Chargers backfield was also a disappointment. Xavier LeGette didn't work out, and nothing really happened with the Colts passing attack. So overall, I think it was an above average week for Sleepers. Let's keep things moving into week 14 Now, before we get to the Sleepers, I want to remind you to check out Underdog. There are tons of snake drafts you can join right now over on Underdog. For not just this week's Slay to Games, but for the playoffs as well. That's right. Playoff best ball is here. And there's one contest, the Gauntlet, that's a $25 entry with $2 million in prizes. If that's too high of an entry point for you, you can also join the $3 per entry Little Mitten. That's where there's $50,000 in prizes. There's always something at Underdog that will fit what you're looking for. If you've never played there, make sure you sign up right now with promo code LATEROUND. You can get a nice deposit offer with that promo code. You can also get access to my rest of season rankings. That's underdogfantasy.com promo code LATEROUND.

We'll kick things off as we usually do with players rostered in 10% to 50% of Yahoo! Leagues, and we'll start with quarterbacks. Will Levis is currently just 16% rostered, and he gets a juicy matchup against the Jags this week. Levis himself has averaged about 17 standard fantasy points per game over his last four. He hasn't dipped below 15.6 points during that time. The Jags are the top matchup for quarterbacks by adjusted points allowed, and they've given up the most adjusted passing yards this season as well. So I think Levis makes sense as a QB2 type this week who could find your lineup if one of your quarterbacks is on by. Jameis Winston has a really tough matchup on paper against the Steelers this week. In fact, Pittsburgh ranks as the toughest matchup for quarterbacks by adjusted points allowed. But he's been in some pretty mediocre positions so far this year, and he's been okay. Like last week, he posted 33 points against Denver.

Cleveland has had a really strong drop back over expected rate in six of their last seven games. And unlike the last time they faced Pittsburgh, this game is not projected to be in a snowstorm. And it's in Pittsburgh that's making the Steelers pretty strong favorites, which could lead to another high-volume day for Jameis Winston. And he's the type of fantasy quarterback that you would want in that scenario. Now, moving on to running back in this tier, let's go to that same game, let's go to Jerome Ford. Now, I mentioned Ford the last time the Browns faced the Steelers, and it was in L. But that game script was weird, and the weather played a role in how those offenses operated. This week, I think there's the potential for a forward game. Pittsburgh ranks as an above-average opponent for running max by adjusted points allowed, and they've given up an above-average target share per game rate, too. That benefits Ford. If this game script goes south, then that'll really help Ford as well. He saw 62% route share last week. He's been in a 56% route share since Nick Chubb returned to the field. He even out snapped Chubb last week 55 to 29 So we could see some production from Ford in this one. Now, at the time of this recording, I'm not exactly sure what this Raiders backfield is going to look like in week 14, when they face the Buccaneers. If Alexander Madison is back, I think you probably have to favor him, given he was seeing 45 to 50% of the team's running back rushes before he got hurt. And those numbers were significantly higher without Zemir White, who's also banged up. Now, if both of those guys are side-lined once again for whatever reason, Sincere McCormick becomes kind of an interesting deep play, so he would be in the other tier that I'll talk about later. Now, Amir Abdullah got more work than McCormick in week 13, but the Raiders might reward McCormick for a strong day of 64 yards on 12 carries. I just would worry a little bit about his receiving upside, because Abdullah has been playing that role for the Raiders, and in week 13, McCormick only ran a route on 9% of Vegas' drop backs. So monitor that situation. The Buccaneers are a better defense to throw on than run on, and that game script could go south. That would benefit someone like Abdullah if both Madison and White are out again. But McCormick is at least an interesting name to follow. Tajay Spears returned for the Titans last week, and it's almost like they didn't use him fully because he wasn't up to speed. Say what you want about them favoring Pollard. Last week was different. Spears is typically seeing double-digit percentage target shares when he plays, but he didn't see a target, and he only carried the ball one time against the commanders. I think there's a chance that that changes this week against Jacksonville. Tony Pollard, he's your go-to here. I talked about that earlier in the week. But Jacksonville is the second best matchup for running backs by adjusted points allowed, and the Titans, they're favorites in this game. There may be a point in time where the Titans decide to feature spears a little bit more if things do get out of hand. He's definitely risky, but that's why he's a sleeper. Now, moving on to wide receiver, let's stick with the Titans. Let's go back to Nick Westbrook-Ekene for like the fourth straight week. Now, his touchdown luck is gonna run out eventually, but his peripherals are getting better, which means there's a little bit more sustainability to his numbers. He's hit a 20% target share in each of his last three games, and like I said, the Titans get the Jags. That's arguably the best matchup for a passing attack in football. So he's definitely in play. Elijah Moore is averaging over nine targets per game over his last six. He's seen a target share per game rate of about 21% during that time frame. He's run about 61% of his routes from the slot. And he's gonna face a Steelers team this week that's seen an above average percentage of targets go to slot-wide receivers against them this season. If that negative game script does happen, like I talked about with Jameis Winston, that could benefit Elijah Moore, even if Cedric Tillman is back. Now, another slot matchup to potentially exploit this week is with Wondell Robinson against the Saints. Robinson has a 79% slot rate this year, according to PFF. New Orleans has seen the third highest adjusted target share go to slot-wide outs this year. Robinson's target shares haven't been as strong of late, but maybe things turn around in a decent matchup. Romeo Dobbs is going to miss another game this week, and that makes Don Tavian Wicks a sleeper once again. The Packers have an implied total of almost 24 points this week in a game against Detroit, and that game has the highest over-under on the slate, so there could be scoring. Detroit's been better against the Run than the Pass this year from a fantasy perspective. They're the second toughest matchup for running backs by adjusted points allowed, but they're the ninth best one for wide receivers. Wicks ran around on 82% of Green Bay's drop backs last week. He'll play as a starter in this really strong environment, and that could bring some fantasy points. And then the last wide out in this tier is Brandon Cooks. Cooks returned to action last week, hit a 19% target share while running a round on just 54% of Dallas' drop backs. It's not hard to see a scenario where that route share, it increases this week. And the Cowboys get a Bengals team that's pretty bad across the board, but they've allowed the fifth most adjusted points to wide receivers this season. At tight end in this tier, I only have one for you, and it's Will Disley. Disley didn't give us the goods last week, but he did run a route on 71% of Justin Herbert's drop backs. That's a solid number. Not only is Lad McConkey dealing with an injury, but the Chiefs are the third best matchup for tight ends by adjusted points allowed. They've also given up the third highest target share to the position. That's adjusted for strength of opponent as well. So Will Disley, solid play.