928: Week 7 Sleepers

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason in this episode 928 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. We had some good and some bad with last week's Sleeper Show. On the bad side, Jalen Tolbert, he didn't do that much, and he only had a 12% target share. The Colts backfield was pretty bad. Roshan Johnson didn't get it done. Daniel Jones was a bad top streamer, and Will Levis was a bad deep streamer. And Jalen Polk and Xavier Hutchinson were big busts. On the plus side, Romeo Dobbs found the end zone twice. Tyler Algier had a great game. Zach Ertz was a decent play. Michael Wilson found the end zone. Josh Downs had another great week, and Drake May was a good streaming choice. It was far from the best week of the season for this sleeper show, though. Let's hope that week 7 treats us better. Before getting in the sleepers this week, though, I wanted to let you know about a cool new game over on Underdog that you can play through October. Head to the Promotions tab in the Underdog app and play Red Zone Rush. It's sort of like a dating app, but instead of swiping left or right on a potential significant other, you're swiping left or right on who you think will get into the end zone that week. And best of all, every Red Zone Rush entry will receive a boost. You can check out Red Zone Rush by heading to underdogfantasy.com or downloading the app. If you're new to Underdog, make sure you sign up with promo code LATEROUND. You'll get a nice deposit bonus. You'll also get access to my rest of season rankings for absolutely free. Just sign up, use promo code LATEROUND, make a deposit, and start playing. That's promo code LATEROUND.

We'll kick off this show as we always do by looking at players rostered in 10 to 50% of Yahoo! leagues who you might want to consider this week. We'll start at quarterback, and we'll start with Drake May. Now, I talked up May on the 15 Transaction Show earlier this week. Not only can he bring a little bit with his legs, he had 38 rushing yards last week, but he gets the Jags this week. The Patriots don't have a high implied team total, but the Jags have been horrific against quarterbacks this year. Their worst and adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position, they've given up a top 12 performance to every quarterback they've faced, including Deshaun Watson. You couldn't ask for a much better spot for May. Matthew Stafford works this week too. I do have some concern that the Rams are going to go with a run-heavy approach against Vegas, especially if Cooper Cup isn't back. But for what it's worth, the Raiders have ranked 11th this year in pass rate allowed in neutral game scripts. Teams are throwing on them more than you might expect. Stafford hasn't been a great fantasy asset this year, but just a third of the Rams' touchdowns have come via the pass. There's some regression heading Stafford's way. And in a game where he's facing a top five matchup and where the Rams have a top five implied team total on the slate, he makes plenty of sense out of there by. And I think that you could go back to Andy Dalton this week too, if the other two quarterbacks aren't available. The Panthers get Washington. Back in the first few weeks of the season, the commanders were an obvious opponent to target. Now, they actually rank as just a slightly above average matchup and adjusted points allowed. But this game actually has the highest total on the slate. I do think that we could end up seeing a pretty run-heavy script by both offenses, but the environment overall is pretty good. That's why Dalton's getting a shout. Moving on to running Mac, there's a chance that we don't see Ramandre Stevenson again this week. And if that's the case, then Antonio Gibson makes for a good play. Last week without Stevenson, Gibson handled 62% of New England's running Mac rushes. He had a 13% target share. Now, I will say, his route participation, it was a little bit concerning. It was only 33%. They were rotating some other backs in there, too. But we're looking for any kind of volume here. And the Patriots get an advantageous matchup against the Jags. So Gibson could be okay. We've also got Tyler Algier in this tier. I'm going to go back to him. Why wouldn't I go back to him? He's now seen running Mac rush shares of 53%, 33%, and 55% over his last three games. He's not going to give you a ton in the passing game. But the Falcons get a plus matchup against Seattle this week. And it's a game with one of the highest totals on the week. You could do worse than Tyler Algier. Now I know the Vikings traded for Camakers, and he may dig into Ty Chandler's workload a little bit this week, as long as Aaron Jones is out. And Aaron Jones could very easily miss this game. It's just that at the time of this recording, I don't know if he's in or out. But if he does miss the game, I do think that Ty Chandler is the 1A in that backfield. Now it's not a great matchup. The Vikings get a Lions team that's been 2nd best in the league this year against Running Max by adjusted points allowed. But they've been pretty average in adjusted target share allowed to Running Max. That's where Chandler can get his work done. So it's not a terrible play in a game with a healthy total. At Wide Receiver this week, I'm going to look closely at the Packers' Wide Receivers. Romeo Dobbs is available in 60% of Yahoo leagues. Christian Watson is also available in over half of them. So they both qualify here. I like them more than usual this week for a few reasons. First, the Packers could play in a relatively high scoring game against the Texans. Second, the Texans have been much better against Running Max than they have against receivers this year. They're a bottom five team for Running Max by adjusted points allowed, but they're top ten for Wide Receivers. And part of that is because teams have an above average pass rate against them in neutral scripts. Third, Dontavian Wicks is banged up with a shoulder injury. He might still go this week, but even if he does, he may not see his normal snap rate, which means the Packers will have more stability at Wide Receiver with Dobbs, Watson, and Jaden Reed. The environment's there, the circumstance is right. Romeo Dobbs and Christian Watson are not terrible flex plays. Well, there's no more Amari Cooper in Cleveland, so I guess Jerry Judy is their guy. Now, is that gonna bring fantasy football production? I mean, this week, I think Jerry Judy is still more of like a Wide Receiver four, but the matchup's not terrible against Cincinnati. The Browns could see a pass-heavy script, and Judy's already had a 19% target share this year. We could see that rise by a handful of percentage points without Amari Cooper. So if you're desperate, he's not a bad volume play. And you could probably say the same thing about DiMario Douglas. As I talked about in the 15 Transactions episode, we've seen Douglas hit some big target shares in three of his last four games. As a slot operator, he gets a Jacksonville team this week that's allowed an above average target share to that area of the field. And the Jags are also just bad against wide receivers in general. They've given up more adjusted points to the position than any other team in football. So DiMario Douglas is in a good spot. Xavier LeGette, when healthy, has been running routes on over 80% of Andy Dalton's drop backs. And that route date is from PFF, by the way. Now that didn't match to an awesome target share last week for LeGette, but getting on the field and running routes, that's the first step needed for fantasy production. And there's a chance that we see more of that production this week. LeGette gets a Washington team that's allowed the third most adjusted points to wide receivers this year. And like I said earlier, that game has a high game total. So with this one, you're associating a player getting reps, a young player who hypothetically should only get better. You're associating that with a high scoring affair. That's why LeGette works. With Marvin Harrison Jr. dealing with a concussion, there's a chance that he doesn't go this week. That would make Michael Wilson the team's top target. He's hit double-digit PPR points in three of his last four. He's got a target share per game rate of 23% during this time. He's also been above a 90% route participation in three of those four games. Now, the Cardinals get the Chargers this week. LA actually ranks first in the NFL and adjusted slot target share allowed to wide receivers, meaning teams are really attacking the slot against the Chargers. That doesn't benefit Wilson like it does their main slot guy, Greg Dortch. Dortch is actually rostered in just 5% of Yahoo! Leagues, but since I'm already talking about the Cardinals' wide receivers, I'll shout him out here. We've seen Dortch hit a 15% target share in three of his last four. It wouldn't be surprising if he gets well over that mark in this game, especially if Marvin Harrison Jr. sidelined. So Wilson is probably a safer option without Harrison, but Greg Dortch has the matchup. At tight end, I'm going to go back to the weekly trusty floor pick, and that's Kate Otten. Otten hasn't dropped below a 17% target share in over a month, and he's still running routes at one of the best rates that you can find at tight end. The Bucks get the Ravens this week. That's a good setup for the passing attack. Teams are throwing the ball a lot against Baltimore. The Ravens have faced the highest pass rate in the league by far in neutral game scripts. Tampa Bay ranks seventh in neutral script pass rate. So a 17% target share could go a really long way in this game.