920: Week 5 Sleepers

JJ Zachariason (0:12)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 920 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. It's been a good couple of weeks for The Sleeper Show. Now, not everything has been perfect, of course. Last week, the Cardinals wide receivers weren't nearly as good as I expected them to be. Romeo Dobbs was pretty average, and DiMario Douglas went back to having a low target share. But I'm happy with some of the other results. Geno Smith and Justin Fields were both top 10 options. Justice Hill had a top 10 performance. Rico Dowdell scored. Wondell Robinson had a nice day. Josh Downs took advantage of his slot matchup. Tucker Kraft was good. Xavier LeGette had a nice day. Overall, with the type of players that I'm looking at on this show each week, I'm very happy with those results. Let's hope regression doesn't hit here in week 5 Now, before getting to the Sleepers this week, make sure you're checking out what's going on over at Underdog. Fantasy football draft season might be over, but it's not over on Underdog. You can draft teams each week over there based on the slate of games, and those drafts are for all sorts of price points in different sizes. There's also Pick'em and Champions mode that you can dig into as well. If you want to get in on the action, head to underdogfantasy.com and sign up. When you sign up, use promo code LATEROUND. That'll get you a free pick, a nice deposit offer, and you'll also get my rest of season rankings. Those rankings are emailed to you from Underdog after you sign up, and they're updated every Tuesday. That's underdogfantasy.com, promo code, LATEROUND.

We'll kick things off with players rostered in 10% to 50% of Yahoo! Leagues, and we'll start with Justin Fields. He's still not up to that mark. Fields gets a banged up Dallas defense this week that's ranked as totally average as an opponent for quarterbacks this year in Adjusted Fantasy Points Aloud. I'm also intrigued by the fact that Dallas' offense is probably the best one that Pittsburgh's faced all year. So we might see Pittsburgh in more of a neutral or even negative game script. They'll at least have to keep pace. And for some time now, the Cowboys have been pretty bad at stopping the run. That also might help Justin Fields. After a huge week four, he's a fine play in week five. Now, Trevor Lawrence is just over that 50% mark over on Yahoo, but I want to talk about him because some of you might be questioning whether or not you should start him. I kind of don't mind him this week against Indianapolis. The Colts are the sixth best matchup for quarterbacks by adjusted points allowed. They've given up 25 passing yards over expected to start the year. This is the defense that watched Caleb Williams throw 363 yards against them. Lawrence has no doubt struggled, but this contest is a reasonable over-under, and both the Jags and the Colts have played at a top 11 pace this season. We could see a lot of plays run and more scoring than usual. And then as hard as it is for me to say this, Deshaun Watson is a streamer this week. They get Washington, and yes, the Commanders played better. They looked better against Kyler Murray last week, but they're still the third best matchup and adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. And Cleveland actually has a team total over 20 points this week. Watson's been terrible, so I do think this is more of a desperation thing. Like if Geno Smith is out there, or if you can play Lawrence or Fields, do that. But the matchup is at least good on paper. Running back is always the toughest position to do on this show, because it's just in such high demand in fantasy football. When there's an opening for more work, the player gets rostered. But there are still some okay plays this week. First, if Jonathan Taylor is out, you could look at Trey Sermon. It's hard to find something super favorable to say about Sermon, but the match against Jacksonville, that's great. They rank as the third best matchup for running backs and adjusted points allowed. And if you want a super deep play, Tyler Goodson might get some touches in this scenario too, if Jonathan Taylor is out. At the time of this recording though, I don't know if Taylor's in or out this week. Now apparently the Patriots are considering making a switch at running back and giving Antonio Gibson the starter role because Ramondre Stevenson has these fumbling issues. Now I'm not sure if they're going to go that far, but Gibson has now seen back-to-back games with a 12.5% target share. He's seen his route participation rise every single week this season. Not only that, but Gibson leads Stevenson this season in rushing yards over expected per attempt, rushing EPA per rush, that's likely due to the fumbles, and he's a little bit better in success rate. It's not an apples to apples comparison of course, but it hasn't been terrible for Antonio Gibson this year. They're in a game this week against Miami that should definitely be low scoring, but it also could be run heavy. The Dolphins have seen the fourth lowest pass rate against them this season in neutral script situations. They're the sixth best matchup for running backs by adjusted points allowed. They're second worst for quarterbacks. So Gibson should at least be on people's radars. The Roshan Johnson usage in week four wasn't what many expected. There were multiple reports saying that he was going to be used more, and then nothing really changed week over week. But there's a decent chance that he'll see goal line touches for Chicago, and the Bears get the Panthers this week. Carolina has a lot of the second most adjusted points to running backs this season, so he's in a spot where he could hypothetically touch the ball ten or more times. I mentioned on the 15 Transaction Show this week, but Emmanuel Wilson has gotten legitimate run in this Packers offense. He's seen running back rushers of 41% and 47% over his last two games, and the Packers get the Rams this week. Green Bay is the third-highest implied team total on the slate, and the Rams are the seventh-best opponent for running backs by adjusted points allowed. Again, these backs are rarely going to be must starts, but Wilson isn't a terrible option if you're hurting. Now, sticking with the Packers and moving to wide receiver, yeah, we're going to talk about Don Tavion Wicks, but also Romeo Dobbs. They're both pretty good plays this week. I'm leaning Wicks right now because he's getting run as a starter, and he's coming off this monster game last week where he scored almost 25 PPR points and he had a 24% target share. As I said during the off season, and as I said on the 15 Transaction Show, Don Tavion Wicks is also good. But it does kind of feel like people have forgotten about Romeo Dobbs. He wasn't the one who benefited last week, but he did have a 91% route participation and a 15% target share. The Rams are also a team that's been torched on the perimeter this year. They ranked dead last in adjusted slot rate, which means they're getting attacked on the outside. And that's definitely where we'll see Dobbs line up and Wicks will be out there more often than not too. Honestly guys, all three of the Packers' wide outs are great plays this week. Now, I don't know if Malik Neighbors is going to be able to play this week. He's in concussion protocol as I'm saying this. But regardless of his status, I think Wondell Robinson is in play once again. The slot matchup isn't necessarily as desirable as last week's, but it's tough to not consider a guy who has a 28% target share on the season, and he could be in a negative game script. The Giants are six and a half point underdogs. So once again, I'm calling out Wondell Robinson. Now, one sneakier play this week, I think, is Keon Coleman. I know he's been a disappointment, which is often what happens during the first half of the season for rookies. But here are the positives. In weeks one and two, his route participation was 90%.