910: 15 Transactions for Week 3

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast, with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason in this episode 910 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. Before getting into the transactions this week, I want to send another reminder about my offer with underdog Fantasy. If you sign up on underdog with promo code LATEROUND and then make a deposit, you'll get a deposit bonus as well as a free copy of my rest of season rankings. But it's not just a static copy. You get a link to those rest of season rankings, and those rankings, they're updated for you each week through the end of the fantasy season. underdog is the best and easiest place to play fantasy sports. There's a lot to play. There's a lot to have fun with on that platform. So check it out, underdogfantasy.com, and make sure you use promo code LATEROUND when you sign up.

By Ja'Marr Chase. So we've had two weeks of Ja'Marr Chase not really being Ja'Marr Chase. In week one, he went 6 for 62 against the Patriots, and this past week, 4 for 35 Now I can't really sit here and tell you that his peripherals have been unbelievable because they haven't. In week one, he had a 20.7% target share. In week two, it was only 14.7%. But as we know, Ja'Marr Chase didn't have a typical summer due to his contract situation. And as we know, Ja'Marr Chase, there's a lot of evidence that he's an elite wide receiver. Throughout his three years in the league as target share per game rate, it's been about 26%. There's a chance that the chase manager in your league is frustrated right now. And maybe they're nervous because T Higgins could be coming back soon. But the thing is, historically, that hasn't really been that big of a deal. Ja'Marr Chase's target share per game with and without T Higgins has been basically the same. The main reason to buy right now, aside from the fact that he's an extremely good player, who's just kind of underperformed, Cincinnati in week three, they get Washington. The commanders have arguably the worst secondary in football and it's been that way for about a year now. Early numbers show that it's the most advantageous matchup for wide receivers. That's according to my Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed Method. So if you're going to buy Ja'Marr Chase, right now is probably the time to do so.

Hold Chase Brown. So let's stick with Cincinnati. Let's just shift our focus to that backfield. As you guys know, I talk about ambiguous backfields all the time. I talked about it throughout the summer. I've talked about it for years. And this Cincinnati Bengals group was one that I highlighted. We saw Chase Brown get a lot of hype in July and August, and he was rising in rankings. But as usual, it was important to not get too hyped up about it. That's why Brown and Moss ended up in the same tier for me. Now, some might see that as a cop-out. I didn't take a strong enough stand because both guys were in the same tier. But running back has a lot of factors to it that are out of our control. Coaching decisions drive the volume of these running backs see. And we're seeing that go down in Cincinnati right now. Zach Moss has dominated touches, he's dominated snaps through two games. He's seen three quarters of the teams running back rushes, Chase Brown just one quarter of them. Zach Moss is the one who's running more routes. So in shallower leagues, I can understand dropping Chase Brown. But in 12-team leagues with normal-sized benches, I would wait a couple of weeks. Cincinnati's offense has not been that great. And the underlying metrics between Zach Moss and Chase Brown, they've favored Brown. Moss has seen more stacked boxes, yes. But Brown has been significantly better according to next-gen stats. And expected points added per rush, success rate, rushing yards over expected per attempt, and 10-plus yard run rate. Now I get it, it's a tiny sample, but it really has not been close. So at the very least, Chase Brown right now, he's a handcuff. He's someone that you can just stash on your bench. But there's still time for him to create a larger role for himself. Moss hasn't run away with that job, even if his peripherals are far, far better. Add Carson Steele and Smaj P. Ryan. So Isaiah Pacheco fractured his fibula on Sunday. He's gonna be out for an extended period of time. If you look at the Chief's running back depth chart, it's really, really lacking. And the question right now is, which running backs should we prioritize off the waiver wire? And I don't know if I have a clear-cut answer. Let me just give you some information. So first off, I think the Chiefs could end up adding more to this backfield. It was reported that Kareem Hunt was visiting with the team on Monday. So who knows which direction that goes in. But Carson Steele got some short yardage work. He got some goal line work in week two. We should expect him to probably play that role with Isaiah Pacheco sidelined. P. Ryan, meanwhile, he's played as the third down back. And we have years of data showing that P. Ryan's a reliable pass catching threat. Just last year, he had a target share above 10% and he's seen a few targets in 2024 And remember, he just joined the team. It hasn't been that long that he's been a Kansas City Chief. So strictly from a projection standpoint, Steele's probably going to see more early down work, but P. Ryan's going to still be sprinkled in. And I think P. Ryan is going to be the pass catcher. So it is a messy situation, but these two running backs do kind of complement each other. A potential problem though is that clyde Edwards-Alaire could return in a couple of weeks. We don't know either way right now. So if he does return, it's just going to make this situation even muddier. Now, one thing I do think is worth noting is that at the end of that game, when Isaiah Pacheco was already out, Carson Steele was in the lineup. He was seeing touches. He was trying to close things out or at least get them in field goal range. If that didn't happen, I think I'd more easily lean Samajay Peerine off the waiver wire this week. And in PPR formats, I'd probably still go in that direction. Probably. Clearly, there's not much conviction here. I think both of them should probably go for a similar dollar value, just based on the information that we have right now. But I think it's important to not overstate this situation. Yes, it's the Kansas City Chiefs, but the value of a running back in that offense is when that running back sees all of the touches. It's when that running back has a clear workhorse role. And I don't know if one of these running backs is going to emerge and be that guy.