906: 15 Transactions for Week 2

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason, and this is episode 906 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. Before getting into the Transactions this week, just as a reminder, make sure you're checking out Underdog Fantasy. If you sign up with promo code LATEROUND, you'll get a free pick plus a first-time deposit offer up to $1,000 in bonus cash. That's underdogfantasy.com. Sign up and use promo code LATEROUND. Get ready to sign up for this week's Sleeper Show, where I'll be talking through some more picks. But it's a 15 Transactions Day today. Let's do it.

Add Isaiah Likely. The big question that everyone has right now is whether or not Isaiah Likely is the preferred tight end for the Baltimore Ravens. My answer to that is probably not. But I do think that he's a real chance to be a weekly starter. Over the first two years of Likely's career, he really only performed when Mark Andrews was sidelined. Even when Andrews was out last year, Likely's target share per game rate was only 14.5 percent. His yards per route run last year was 1.44. That's pretty ordinary. He was targeted on just 14 percent of his routes. In week one, though, his numbers were completely different. He hit a 30 percent target share, and he was targeted on over 34 percent of his routes run, according to PFF data. That was the result of the Ravens running a lot more 12 personnel. Last season, Baltimore's 12 personnel rate, that's when two tight ends are on the field, their 12 personnel rate was 11 percent. Last week against the Chiefs, it was 53 percent. Just for some context, last year, the Falcons, they were the league leader in 12 personnel usage. Their rate was 42 percent. If that keeps up, then that means that Isaiah likely is going to be on the field more. If he's on the field more, he's going to run more routes, and if he's running more routes, he's going to score more points. Here's the thing though with the Andrews vs. Likely debate. Andrews still finished week one with more routes run than Isaiah likely. He was lined up in the slot or on the outside on over 78 percent of his routes run. For Isaiah likely, it was 51 percent. To put that all another way, Andrews was playing more of a pass-catching role for Baltimore, even though the result said what it said. And that result is not that uncommon for Mark Andrews against the Chiefs. Since Steve Spagnola took over as defensive coordinator for Kansas City, Andrews has faced the Chiefs five times. In those games, here are his yardage totals. 15, 22, 57, 15, and now 14 According to Nate Yonkey of PFF, Andrews was double-covered on a higher percentage of his routes in week one than any of his games played from 2021 to 2023 It was very clear the Chiefs wanted Mark Andrews to not beat them. This really wasn't a normal outcome based on all of the usage metrics that we care about for tight ends in fantasy football. Mark Andrews should be able to bounce back, but just keep in mind that with more 12 personnel, legitimately, if they keep this up, there's a chance that we see both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely as tight end ones this year. Hold or buy Drake London? No one wants to hear this right now. Not a single person listening to this podcast wants to hear me talk favorably about Drake London. Everyone's sick of it. Everyone's sick of him from a fantasy football perspective, because all he's been for the most part is a disappointment. So like I said in my column this week, I'm going to say this very, very quietly. Now might be the time to buy low on Drake London. The Falcons week one offense looked like it was being led by a 36 year old quarterback coming off an Achilles injury. Kirk Cousins did not look right against the Steelers. His passes didn't have that much zip. It's not that surprising, but it's also somewhat of a concern. But what's most important with anything week one, in a one week sample, things can just go wrong. Atlanta faced a very good Steelers front. That front pressured Cousins at the sixth highest rate among all teams in week one. That's pre-Monday Night Football. London in particular saw a whole lot of Joey Porter Jr. And Joey Porter Jr. is becoming one of the better cornerbacks in football. People are looking at the box score and they're saying, oh my gosh, you kidding me, Ray Ray McLeod? He's the one that's leading the Falcons and receiving? But they don't look at the matchup enough. Literally, last week on The Sleeper Show, I talked about how the Steelers are bad against the slot. They're notoriously terrible at guarding slot wide outs. And so now London managers are really, really frustrated, despite the fact that it was a really tough matchup on paper. So in my opinion, if you can send a lowball offer, now is the time to do that. There's no need to get crazy, crazy aggressive here. I wouldn't do that. Because there are some worrying signs. Kirk Cousins' health being the number one concern. But this is likely not going to be the norm for Drake London. And something else to keep in mind, as we move forward in this season, and I know this is so, so far away, but in the fantasy football playoffs, the Falcons get the Raiders, Giants and Commanders. That's an awesome schedule for a player like London.