900: Bold Predictions

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 900 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. This is always one of the most popular things that I do each year. People love them some bold predictions. And I do too. I enjoy coming up with them. But for anyone who's new to all of this, or new to me, I do need to make a general statement here. These are not hot take bold predictions. They may not be bold enough for you. I'm not sitting here saying some rookie running back who was drafted on day three is going to finish in the top five of the position. Or that some quarterback is going to throw 70 touchdowns. I try to be realistic with my bold predictions. I explain why they're bold, and some of them may not be bold enough for you. But I do explain why they're bold, and I give reasons as to why these predictions could come to fruition. Every player has some range of outcomes in fantasy. These predictions are essentially looking at the lower and the higher end of those outcomes. Now I emailed out 15 bold predictions in the Late-Round Fantasy Football Newsletter. And that email will eventually be added to the newsletter archives on lateround.com. But today, I'm picking 10 of those to share on the podcast. Now before digging in, here's your reminder to take advantage and get a free Late-Round Draft Guide. All you have to do is head to underdogfantasy.com, sign up with promo code LATEROUND, make an apposit, and you'll be emailed the guide shortly after signing up. That guide includes tons of strategy-related research, as well as the typical players to target, players to avoid, late-round dart throws, and my top 200 rankings and tiers. There's one more update to the guide which happens on Friday. And when you sign up, you can also get a deposit offer of up to $1,000 in bonus cash. You can play best ball while also getting the Late-Round Draft Guide. So take advantage, underdogfantasy.com, promo code LATEROUND.

Brian Thomas will finish as a top 24 wide receiver. This bold prediction is bold because Brian Thomas is being drafted as the wide receiver 49 That's according to Fantasy Pro's Consensus ADP. So if he's a wide receiver too, a top 24 wide receiver, that would be pretty crazy. That's a great value. That's why this is bold. Now, why this could happen is because my zap model, my prospect model, really like Brian Thomas. He scored a 94.5. That gives him very good odds to succeed in fantasy football throughout the first three years of his career. Since 2014, there have been 23 rookie wide receivers drafted in the wide receiver 40 to wide receiver 60 range with a zap score above 90 On average, those players outperformed ADP expectation by 1.4 PPR points per game. Over 39% of them ended up as what I call a moderate breakout, a player who outperforms ADP expectation by three or more points per game. That's one of the best subsets that you're going to find at the wide receiver position. Rookie wide receivers in the wide receiver 40 to wide receiver 60 range. And that's exactly where Brian Thomas is. Thomas could play the Calvin Ridley role this year. That might not seem like anything special given how Ridley underperformed last season, but according to PFF and their expected fantasy points model, Ridley finished 14th and expected fantasy points per contest last season. So, Brian Thomas could definitely get this done. Javante Williams will outscore David Montgomery. This one's bold because Williams gets drafted around RB 28, Montgomery around RB 19 Now, the downside case for David Montgomery, which is the case that I need to make for this bold prediction to come true. The downside case, it's really straightforward. David Montgomery doesn't score as many touchdowns this year. Montgomery only had a 5.1% target share per game rate last season. With Jameer Gibbs in the lineup, we shouldn't expect that number to be much higher. So he'll probably be a relatively touchdown reliant player. As we know, Montgomery did get 13 touchdowns last season. But down the stretch, his usage close to the end zone changed. After he came back from an injury in Week 10, he ended up splitting goal line carriers with Jameer Gibbs through the playoffs. He had 11, Jameer Gibbs had 10 So without that receiving ceiling, if they do continue to split the goal line rushes, that could be bad news for David Montgomery. He could hit the lower end of his range of outcomes. Now on the other side is Jovante Williams. He's two years now removed from that knee injury. He wasn't overly effective last season, but of all the running max in Denver, even though I love me some Jaleel McLaughlin, of all the running max in Denver, he has the most upside. There's no doubt about it. He's the one who profiles most as a true bell cow. And the system itself is awesome for running backs. I've been saying this all off season. Sean Payton led teams, own eight of the top 17 team running back target share seasons since 2011 According to PFF's numbers, Williams actually finishes the RB 17 in expected points per contest last year. Without the injury, he might end up seeing more work. And that could make him a surprise winner in 2024