889: Mailbag 6/28/24

SPEAKER_2 (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 889 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog Fantasy.

Thanks for tuning in. Before getting to the questions this week, this is another reminder to check out Underdog Fantasy. I've got a legit offer for you. As you know, The Late-Round Draft Guide is currently available for pre-order for $19.99. It's the piece of content that I put by far the most time into each year. You can get that guide for absolutely free if you've never played at Underdog. Here's how you do it. Head to underdogfantasy.com, sign up. When you sign up, use promo code LATEROUND and then make a deposit.

On July 1st, or just a couple of days from now when the guide launches, you'll get an email with a link to download that guide. You'll also be getting a deposit offer when you make your deposit. So there's really nothing to lose here, especially if you were planning on getting that guide anyway. So check it out underdogfantasy.com or download the Underdog app. When you sign up and you make a deposit, use promo code LATEROUND.

The first question this week is an email. It says, Hi JJ, love your work. Thanks. You have shown in the past how having a rookie quarterback can statistically have a negative impact on fantasy production for all other player positions. However, is it worse than poor quarterback play? More specifically, do you think the commanders and Bears position players will have reduced fantasy production even if the rookies entering show more talent in their incumbents? And yes, I know Jaden Daniels is a rushing quarterback, which also has a negative impact on player fantasy production. But am I wrong to think that he still might be better for that offense than Sam Howe? Can Caleb Williams give DJ Moore a better season than Fields? Thank you so much for your insight. Can't wait for the release of the Draft Guide, Eric.

So I think a lot of people have this thought process and then ask this exact question. I, JJ, sit on this podcast and talk about how rookie quarterbacks are generally bad for their pass catchers, which they objectively are. This is in the Draft Guide, but since 2014, there have been 159 wide receivers who were drafted in the top 72 at the position and scored 15 or more PPR points per game. Now I say who were drafted in the top 72 because I was doing research on average draft position. Technically, there are 6 more players in general who got to that number.

And these 159 wide receivers are wide receiver seasons because a wide out could get to that 15 point per game number more than once.

Out of those 159, guess how many of them had a rookie quarterback play for the majority of the season? Four of them. Now, this technically doesn't include Tank Del because he didn't have an ADP that high. And I believe he's the only one of the six who played with a rookie quarterback who got to 15 PPR points per game. He was exactly at 15 PPR points per game. But even still, let's just throw Tank Del in there. That's five of 160 wide receiver seasons. Five of 160 who are giving you what? Mid-range wide receiver two numbers? Now that statistic admittedly sounds a lot cooler than it actually is. Rookie quarterbacks definitely aren't boosting their wide receivers, but there haven't been a ton of rookie quarterbacks in general over this timeframe.

In the end, the rate of getting to 15 or more PPR points per game for a wide receiver with a rookie quarterback, when they've been top 72 wide receiver picks, it's been 8.3%. For non-rookie quarterbacks, it's 25.8%. And the players with non-rookie quarterbacks are beating ADP at a higher rate too. Which is really important to look at here, because wide receivers with rookie quarterbacks, they're going to get drafted later, more than likely.

Now I say all that just to reinforce the general idea that yes, wide receivers with rookie quarterbacks don't have the same type of ceiling as the alternative. The reason for that is because rookie quarterbacks aren't as good. Their offenses don't score as many points, and they average fewer yards per play. So if you're a question, if the previous quarterback was also not good, then no, we shouldn't consider the rookie quarterback a downgrade. DJ Moore going from Justin Fields to Caleb Williams is probably going to be an upgrade. Caleb Williams will probably be a better quarterback than Justin Fields. The issue for Moore is that he's now competing with Keenan Allen and Roma Dunze. And there's a chance, a chance, that the market just overstates the impact that Caleb Williams is going to have. Because rookie quarterbacks in general don't perform that well. My thing is, I don't think we should just simply look at previous year numbers and attach them to the current season. DJ Moore is a great example of that. He finished with 16.9 PPR points per game last year. That was on a team with honestly horrific quarterback play, at least from a passing perspective. A lot of people will just look at that number and assume that he can maintain that or even exceed it because he's getting the perceived quarterback upgrade. It's just not that simple. There's statistical regression. There's competition for targets. There's changes in coordinators. So many things are different year over year. But to your question, no, a rookie quarterback is not automatically worse than poor quarterback play. It's just that rookie quarterbacks often bring poor quarterback play. And the market doesn't always recognize that.