887: The Pocket Passer Trap

SPEAKER_2 (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast, with your host, JJ Zachariason.

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 887 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. Almost exactly a year ago, I published an episode of the podcast called The Rise of the Early-Round Quarterback. Years and years ago, when I first started in the fantasy football industry, quarterbacks were getting selected really early in drafts. But based on supply and demand and predictability, it didn't make much sense. A late-round quarterback approach was much more approachable. So I wrote about it. I published The Late-Round Quarterback eBook in 2012, and I've been brain-vomiting fantasy takes ever since.

We've been through a journey over the years. In that 2014-2015 timeframe, drafting a quarterback early was legitimately worthless. When looking at top 18 quarterbacks by ADP in 2015, for example, the correlation between where those quarterbacks were drafted and the number of fantasy points per game that they actually scored was zero. QB2s were getting you just as many points as QB1s. We were terrible at predicting performance. That all changed in 2020 And the reason it changed in my eyes is because of Lamar Jackson. Look, I've missed on a lot of things in fantasy football through the years. That's part of this gig. But the single take that I'm most proud of relates to this topic. After Jackson's monster MVP season in 2019, I wrote an article on whether or not he broke the late-round quarterback strategy. Yes, he was a late-round quarterback himself that year. But it was obvious that people were catching on. They were realizing the importance of mobility at the position in fantasy football. So I wrote about it. And at the end of that article, I wrote the following. You know, the truth is, the question about the late-round quarterback strategy in fantasy football this year shouldn't really revolve around Lamar Jackson. It shouldn't be about whether or not you're willing to take Jackson in the top 25 or the top 30 Instead, our focus should be on the fact that the fantasy football world has gotten smarter. Historically, fantasy managers didn't put a premium on quarterback rushing production. They ignored what's been dubbed the Konami Code of Fantasy Football. We don't see that anymore. The consensus top 7 quarterbacks this year are all players who bring that extra juice with their legs. So no, Lamar Jackson isn't what could break the idea of drafting quarterbacks late in fantasy football. You are. As the fantasy football world gets sharper, the late-round quarterback strategy may slowly morph into the middle-round quarterback strategy.

Now I bring this up every once in a while on the show because it's such a good example of why average draft position analysis is so important. You can be ahead of the game when you spot these macro trends. Not everything needs to be player analysis focused.

We've definitely seen a change in the position since that timeframe. When looking at the correlation between preseason expectation and postseason result over the last four seasons, it's night and day compared to what we saw in 2012, 2013, 2014 That's because the best quarterbacks in fantasy football are now running the ball and passing the ball well. You see, before, when friend of the show Rich Rebar wrote about the Konami Code in fantasy football, the cheat code that is quarterback rushing, quarterbacks didn't have this unicorn ability of being great rushers and passers. We saw these one-off spike seasons, but in today's game, it's Lamar Jackson, it's Josh Allen, it's Jalen Hertz. These guys are posting good rushing numbers and good passing numbers. And when you get that combination, it becomes much easier to predict which quarterbacks are going to be good entering a given season.

Now, I go through a lot of this in this year's Late-Round Draft Guide. But something else that I talk about that's related to this is what I call the Pocket Passer Trap. And that's what we're going to dig into today. Before going forward, I want to send another reminder about a very special offer. Right now, the Late-Round Draft Guide is available for pre-order. It's the thing that I put the most work into each and every year. That guide is available right now over on lateround.com for $19.99. It's going to go up to $24.99 on July 1st when it launches. But you can get it for absolutely free. All you need to do is head to underdogfantasy.com or download the Underdog app. And if you're a new user, go sign up on Underdog, use promo code LATEROUND and then make a deposit. That promo code will allow you to not only get a deposit offer, but you'll also get a free Late-Round Draft Guide. The guide will be emailed to your inbox on July 1st when it launches. So again, underdogfantasy.com or download the Underdog app. Sign up with promo code LATEROUND and make a deposit. You can do best ball drafts all while getting a free Late-Round Draft Guide. It doesn't get much better than that.