886: Reframing the Running Back Dead Zone

SPEAKER_2 (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason, and in this episode 886 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog Fantasy, thanks for tuning in. The Running Back Dead Zone is one of the most popular talking points in all of fantasy football. Every analyst will bring it up in their podcast over the summer. Everyone talks about it. I've done episodes on the topic through the years, plenty.

If you're unfamiliar with the dead zone, it's an area of fantasy drafts where two things are happening. The first is that running back value stinks. The dead zone consists of running backs who fail to reach expectation at a really high rate, and they're not giving you a ton of fantasy points. But all the while, and this is the second point to make, all the while, there are pretty good wide receivers that you're missing out on in that dead zone range. So not only are the running backs bad, but there's an opportunity cost component to it as well. And that opportunity cost side to the running back dead zone discussion can't be ignored. Because in today's fantasy football landscape, drafts have become really wide receiver heavy. When wide receivers get drafted earlier and more frequently, running back costs naturally get cheaper. And when running back costs get cheaper, the opportunity cost equation shifts. All of a sudden, the wide receivers were foregoing in a draft when we select a running back, those wide receivers aren't as good. And that makes it easier to draft the running back. Even if that running back is in the dead zone, right? Not so fast. We need to have a deeper conversation about what the dead zone really is. And that's what today's episode is all about. Now before digging in, I wanted to send another reminder to check out Underdog Fantasy. If you're listening to this episode of the Late-Round Podcast, then you would definitely have some interest in the best ball format. That's where you draft a team, and that's it. Your lineup is optimized for you each week based on how many points your team scores. There's no lineup setting, no trades, no waivers. You draft and you're done. Some might say that it's too early to draft teams for the 2024 season, but I disagree. Now is the time where you can get awesome values on players for the contests that are being drafted all summer long. But there are also contests that fill fast. So everyone's working off of the same information. There were some really cool new contests like the Marathon that dropped just last week. If you've never tried Best Ball Out over on Underdog and you want to give it a shot, head to underdogfantasy.com or download the Underdog app. When you sign up, use promo code LATEROUND. That's one word. When you do that, you'll not only get a deposit offer, but you'll also get a free Late-Round Draft Guide. That guide will be emailed to you on July 1st when it launches. And all you have to do is sign up with promo code LATEROUND and make a deposit. That's underdogfantasy.com, promo code LATEROUND.

So what is the running back dead zone? Where does it occur? What does it all mean? The gist of my dead zone research has revealed the following. In a 12-team league, when you reach the middle of the third round, running back production takes a hit, meaning the running backs you're taking in the late third round into the fourth round, there's a dramatic difference between those backs and the ones you're getting in the first and second rounds of your draft.

Now all the while, if you look at how running backs have performed historically in round six, round seven, their production isn't that far off of running backs drafted in round four or five. So it should make you question those round four and five running backs. Why draft them when you can get that production later? The opportunity cost side of things come into play here too. Wide receivers have been a little bit more attractive in that round four, round five range through the years. So not only are you drafting inferior running backs, but you're also missing out on a chance at a wide receiver, making that running back selection even worse. With today's wide receiver heavy approach, that opportunity cost equation then shifts. Running backs are now going later. Dead zone backs, instead of going in late round three and into round six, they may not go until round five and into round seven or maybe even round eight, especially on underdog. Underdog drafts are insanely wide receiver heavy, where top 12 running backs will fall into the fifth round.