885: Mailbag 5/31/24

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharissa.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 885 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Hey, thanks for tuning in.

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This first question is from Twitter. It's from at AyushMittal23. It says, with the Colts drafting AD Mitchell, is there a chance Josh Downs goes down the Elijah Moore path and gets pigeonholed as a slot receiver with minimal fantasy value? Got burned by Moore. Can we identify these types of wide receivers ahead of time?

So I think there are some pretty big differences between Elijah Moore and Josh Downs. Obviously, neither player is very big. So there are some similarities there. And they both had really good collegiate production profiles too. But the reason myself and others were so bullish on Moore after his rookie season is because he wasn't a slot receiver. That's what's so infuriating about the Elijah Moore story. We thought that he would be a slot, but he only ran 29% of his routes from the slot as a rookie. And all of his peripheral numbers is per route run numbers, his target share, I mean, even his fantasy points per game. They were all really strong. I think the story of Elijah Moore has just as much to do with off the field stuff as on the field stuff. That's just my honest take. Missing on him after year one, you're gonna hit on those types of peripherals quite often. It just didn't work out with Elijah Moore. Sometimes that's gonna happen.

But that's a key difference between Moore and Downs. Moore wasn't just a slot guy. He played everywhere in year one. Downs was basically a slot receiver last year. He ran 81% of his routes from the slot. But fantasy gamers aren't valuing him the way they valued Elijah Moore after his rookie season. That can't be ignored. According to Dynasty League Football's ADP, Moore was wide receiver 24 in May after his rookie season. Right now, today, Josh Downs is wide receiver 53 The cost to acquire and invest in Downs is totally different. For a projection standpoint, it's tough to get there with Josh Downs. There's no doubt. We're talking about probably a middle of the road passing offense at best in terms of volume. And he's got competition in that offense. The way they've built the wide receiver room, Downs probably won't be out there in two wide receiver sets. And there's a chance that AD Mitchell hits. And then all of a sudden, Downs becomes easily the number three target getter on that team.

But my philosophy with situations like this, when prices aren't substantial for a player, I want talent on my fantasy rosters. I think Josh Downs is a very good slot receiver. He was a good prospect. He had a good first year in the league. Rather than getting worked up about situation, I'll follow the talent when the price point is as low as it is for Josh Downs.

So I don't really think this is a similar situation as Elijah Moore. Moore hasn't even been a slot guy throughout his entire career, like beyond year one. He's played everywhere. Downs is more limited at the moment, but the price reflects that.

This next question is from Patreon. It's from Robert. It says, using the two most recent podcasts tying ZAP and Year 2 model scores to redraft, are there any players who are more in or more out now? Yeah, so on that show, I talked about Chase Brown. That's because I just think Year 2 running backs in general are good bets across the board, similar to rookie running backs.