881: Insights From Building Projections

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 881 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. I don't draft off of projections. People sometimes give me a weird look when I say that, but I don't think you should take one singular median outcome for a player, which is what a projection is, and use that as the only data point when you're drafting. There's variance to projections. That's one reason why. You may hate that I talk about variance so much on the show, but it's true. We can say that a certain backup running back will only score 75 PPR points this year, but if that backup starter gets hurt in week one, then that projection becomes meaningless. It's not to say that that's a common occurrence. It's to say that we know projections can go south, and they can go south in a hurry.

Now, to that point, projections don't always properly capture range of outcomes. A rookie or a second year player probably gonna have a wider range of outcomes than a player who's been in the same offense with the same team for years. There's more ambiguity with that younger player. Sometimes that's good. Sometimes that's bad. But projections will show you just one final number for both the veteran and the younger player, that fantasy point total.

Most systems aren't giving you a range of outcomes. And even if they are giving you a range of outcomes, there's still a lot of variance to that too.

And let's be honest, there are points in your fantasy draft where you shift your focus when it comes to range of outcomes. In the early rounds, you may be looking for that median output. You may want a little safety. In round 15, round 16, why do you care about a player's floor? You should be looking at his ceiling and what he can become. This doesn't make projections meaningless, of course. They can give you an idea of where a player should be drafted, and they can also help you wrap your head around potential volume in an offense, or whether or not something truly is possible.

The actual process of building projections is often more helpful to me than the projection itself, because when building them, you're finding things out about players and teams that you might not have otherwise realized. And that's what this episode I do each year is all about. I'm here to talk about some of the interesting things that I saw and learned while building projections this year. Now, before getting started, I've got a couple of things I need to talk to you guys about. First, take a swing at Pick'em on Underdog during the next golf major. Underdog has the biggest offerings in the game, including full round projections and single hole stats. Get your entries in before the action starts or wait to see how your favorite golfers are doing with in-game Pick'em. It's all your choice. Download the Underdog Fantasy app today and sign up using code LATEROUND. New customers will receive a player special plus a deposit offer upon signing up. And that brings me to the second thing I want to mention. The Late-Round Draft Guide is live and ready for pre-order. The draft guide is different than the prospect guide. Instead of a guide focused on prospects, it's a guide focused on your season-long fantasy football leagues. Yes, we're getting closer and closer to those drafts. This is year three of the guide, and I plan on making it better than ever. I'll be talking game theory, players to target, players to avoid, late-round dart throws, and so much more. It's then updated weekly through August, so you're always getting up-to-date information for your drafts. You can pre-order it now over on lateround.com for $19.99. When it goes out on July 1st, you'll get an email with a download link. But I've got a special offer for you this year. If you're new to Underdog Fantasy, you've never signed up. If you sign up and make a deposit with promo code LATEROUND, you'll not only receive a deposit bonus, but you'll also get a free Late-Round Draft Guide. That guide will be emailed to you when it releases on July 1st. So there are so many reasons to sign up on Underdog. Do it today by heading to underdogfantasy.com or by downloading the app. And when you sign up, make sure you use promo code LATEROUND. You need that promo code and you need to make a deposit if you want a free Late-Round Draft Guide. Again, that's promo code LATEROUND.

I know Bijon Robinson didn't totally come to fruition last year, but this year, my projections think that he's going to come to fruition. Atlanta has a whole new offense this season. The coaching staff changed and they've got Zach Robinson running the show on offense. He comes from the Sean McVay tree, which is one that's not nearly as conservative as what we saw with Arthur Smith in Atlanta. You've got a team that's going to go from using the least amount of 11 personnel in the league to one that's going to be closer to the top of the league. That's what we've seen traditionally from this coaching tree.