880: Post-Draft Rookie Rankings

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharissa.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason in this episode 880 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. We've had some time now to let the NFL draft sink in. For those of you who got The Late-Round Prospect Guide, or for anyone on the Late-Round Fantasy Football Patreon, you've seen my thoughts on this class post-draft. You guys heard some of those thoughts on last week's episodes, too.

I just haven't formally done a post-draft rankings episode, which is what today's show is all about. Just like the pre-draft one, I'll be going through my top 12 post-draft rookie rankings, and I'll be doing it by tier. You can get the rest of these rankings in the spots that I just referenced. There weren't a ton of changes from the pre-draft show to this post-draft one, but there were still some, and there's definitely more to add with these players based on their landing spot. We'll get to those rankings in just a second. First, I just want to remind you to check out Underdog Fantasy. Becoming a Best Ball Bro is a new show that's starting in the Late-Round Podcast feed next week, and you'll want to be set up and ready to go on Underdog for when that happens, because Underdog's got best ball contests, pick-em games, and more. To get started, just head to underdogfantasy.com or download the Underdog app. And when you sign up, make sure to use promo code LATEROUND for a deposit match offer on your first deposit. That's promo code LATEROUND. It's officially best ball season, and I can't wait to experience it all with you. Now let's get to these rankings.

Pre-draft, I had Marvin Harrison and Malik neighbors in the same tier. Post-draft, Marvin Harrison Jr. is the only player in this top tier of single quarterback rookie drafts. In Superflex, you can add Caleb Williams into the mix. So the question would be why the change? Why were they in the same tier before, but they're not now? Well, we got some confirmation. We all kind of thought that Arizona would go with Harrison, and then there was that possibility of neighbors going to the Giants. But now we know those two things are true. And the spot in Arizona is one where Harrison Jr. has a pretty legit year one opportunity. My projections currently have Harrison as the wide receiver 17, but there's plenty of upside in that projection. He could just be more efficient than where I've got him, but there's also not that much in terms of alternatives in that offense. He's got an above-average quarterback situation in Kyler Murray, too. The other side of this is the market. In dynasty, you always have to be cognizant of player value, because that's still an important part to building a dynasty roster, and it's very clear that the market is favoring Marvin Harrison Jr. a decent bit higher than Malik Neighbors. I've been in drafts and superflex drafts where Marvin Harrison Jr. has gotten 101, and then all the while, Malik Neighbors is going like 106, because people were into those four quarterbacks before Neighbors. But overall, Marvin Harrison Jr. is a stud. I said it pre-draft, I'll say it post-draft. He's a cornerstone piece for your dynasty roster.

This next tier, let's talk about Malik Neighbors. He's alone in this next tier. When looking at the ZAP model, which is my prospect model, Neighbors had a pretty identical score to Marvin Harrison Jr., but the ZAP model isn't looking at landing spot. Landing spot shouldn't be everything, just for the record. We shouldn't let it solely dictate whether or not we like a player. But when we're talking about two guys with very similar prospect scores, I'll gladly let landing spot along with market valuation, I'll let that dictate how I view a player.

I do think that some might be overstating Neighbors' landing spot to some degree. Yes, he's walking onto a team where the quarterback situation is a lot more unstable than what Arizona is working with. With that being said, Neighbors definitely has a high target share projection.

Similar to Marvin Harrison Jr., there's not a whole lot of competition in New York. In fact, you could argue the competition is even worse in New York than it is in Arizona. There's no Trey McBride on the Giants.

This is why these two teams took wide receivers at the top of the draft. Not only are Neighbors and Harrison Jr. elite prospects, but there was a need there.

But in the end, Neighbors, number one, has worse market value than Marvin Harrison Jr., like I just talked about. But number two, his year one projection also isn't as strong. He's more in that wide receiver 25 to wide receiver 30 range, which makes me believe that Harrison Jr. will appreciate in value better than Malik Neighbors will. Just don't go crazy discounting Neighbors. Like I said, I've been in some rookie drafts where he's fallen way too far for being an elite prospect. He should be valued highly because he is an elite guy. I just think it's safer and smarter to go with Harrison at this point, which is why there's that tier separation.