873: A Strong Quarterback Class

SPEAKER_2 (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 873 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog Fantasy.

Thanks for tuning in. I do this show every year with my friend Jim Sannes. Sannes, who's a managing editor of digital media at Fandl Research, he puts together a great article on statistically superior quarterbacks every draft season. And he's come away with a lot of hits through the years. So on today's episode, I ask him about that article, about that study. And I ask him questions about this year's draft class.

I know that Late-Round Perspectives is a thing now, and you're probably wondering why this isn't just a perspectives episode. And that's a valid question.

Perspectives is a show that covers a wide variety of topics, and I might get lost in conversation with the guest a bit. This episode is to the point. It's one overarching topic, and it's in the standard Late-Round podcast format. No fluff and to the point. Over the next three weeks, you'll be hearing from other analysts who cover the NFL draft. And I'll be doing an episode on running backs and wide receivers to go along with this one. It's something I've done each year on the show to give you guys something a little different as opposed to just hearing my takes and my takes only on these players.

Now, before I get into the interview with Jim, don't forget to check out Underdog Fantasy. I've been drafting over there over the last month or so. It's giving me a nice early prep on the fantasy football season. I've got tons of slow best ball drafts going on at all times, where I've got an eight hour clock with each pick. Now, if you haven't played best ball before, the idea is simple. You draft a fantasy football team and you can do it in minutes. There's no waivers, there's no trades, there's no lineup setting. Your team is optimized for you in season based on how players perform.

Drafts are happening right now over there. And you can use the information that I share on here or in my prospect guide or any future information because I am going to do more best ball content. You can use that info to help you draft. If you're new to Underdog and you want to check it out, make sure you use promo code LATEROUND when you sign up. If you do that, you'll get a deposit match up to $100. Again, that's promo code LATEROUND. Head to underdogfantasy.com or download the Underdog Fantasy app to sign up. Now let's talk to Jim about this year's quarterback class.

So Jim, we do this episode every year, but for anyone who hasn't listened to this episode in the past, you do a study where you analyze that particular year's draft class to find which quarterbacks are statistically superior. Can you sort of talk through that study and the things that you're looking for?

Jim Sannes (2:49)

Yes, I think the key word there is statistical. It does not include the sentiment of scouts, and that matters, but I'm not a scout. And so I know that I'm not going to be able to build a model that can be like that. But I think that the model I use, which looks at just players' collegiate efficiency, their age and their experience level, it does test pretty well, and it can do a pretty good job of identifying a risk level. Like it's not going to say this guy's a bust, it's not going to say this guy's a definite hit, but it can identify risk level in players beyond just draft capital. You know, it's hard to check all the boxes of getting players who are young, efficient, and experienced because it's hard to, you know, be both young and experienced unless you're starting as a true freshman and declare early and stuff like that. But the closer you get to checking those boxes, the more likely you are to succeed. And again, you know, opinions of scouts matter because they're good at what they do, but like, I want to focus on what I'm good at. And like, just from a true numbers perspective, you can get a lot of useful information by looking at this. So if we look at since 2010, there have been 43 quarterbacks who have been first round picks. And of those 43, 14 have ranked inside the top 10 of number fires, total net expected points, and one third of their qualified season. So total NEP looks at expected points added throughout the year, including what you do as a rusher.