870: Free Agency Fallout

SPEAKER_2 (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up everyone, it's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 870 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog Fantasy, thanks for tuning in. I know every Fantasy Football Podcast is going to break down free agency, and some of you might be tired of all the takes at this point. And I can't lie to you, I don't know if my stances on what happened during free agency, I don't know if those stances are going to be unique. I don't know if any perspective is going to be different than what you've already heard. What I can tell you is that I always do my best to be rational with my thoughts, and I have plenty of math to back up my feelings on these moves. But yeah, this episode is a pretty generic episode. It's one where I'll be looking at some of the bigger moves that went down in free agency, and I'll be talking about how those moves impact things in fantasy football. And because there were so many things that happened, I won't be able to get to everything. But I chose some of the bigger storylines that may be tougher for gamers to figure out right now.

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I think the single biggest move of free agency, at least in terms of how things will impact fantasy football, is with Kirk Cousins going to Atlanta. Over the last two years under Arthur Smith, the Falcons ranked 31st and 29th in pass rate. They had 415 and 530 pass attempts over those two seasons. Now we're getting a new coaching staff in Atlanta, which includes Sean McVeigh coaching tree hire, Zach Robinson as offensive coordinator. Robinson had worked as the quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator in LA over the last two seasons, and he was on the staff since 2019

Chances are, the Falcons are gonna wanna sling it, at least far more than what they did under Artie Smith. Cousins is also coming from Minnesota, where he played under Kevin O'Connell over the last two seasons. And Minnesota was third in the NFL both seasons in pass rate. Right before he got the head coaching gig for the Vikings, Kevin O'Connell, as most of you guys know, he was the offensive coordinator for the Rams. That was in 2020 and 2021, under Sean McVay. A pass heavier offense with Cousins is going to have a massive effect on the weapons in Atlanta. Kyle Pitts should become a more reliable piece. Drake London, who scored really well in my year two model last year, and he's someone I've touted a lot over the last year, he now looks like a potential wide receiver one in fantasy. And then there's Bijon Robinson. Robinson had what many thought was a disappointing season given the cost to acquire him last year, but his target share, his receiving work, was excellent. Among rookie running backs since 2011, Robinson's per game target share trailed only Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara. Now I know a lot of people are saying that you should buy into the Falcons offense right now, and even though that's gonna drive up their ADPs, I still think it's valid. Unless you just started listening to me, you know that I'm a fan of a lot of the pieces there. And now you've got the right kind of coordinator and the right kind of quarterback to score fantasy points. My early projections think that London and Bichon Robinson specifically could be studs this year. London, a lower end wide receiver one, and Robinson, the RB2 in 2024 I think if anyone can get close to Christian McCaffrey this year, it might be Bichon Robinson, if things break his way. And Breece Hall gets a nod there too. But this is a giant W for fantasy managers who invested in these guys last season. Assuming that Kirk Cousins can come back and be his healthy self. This result could have been much, much worse.