854: Week 16 Sleepers

SPEAKER_2 (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast, with your host, JJ Zachariason.

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason, and this episode, 854 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in.

I feel just okay with how last week went with The Sleeper Show. The quarterback streamers, they were all pretty usable, though none of them were amazing. Deontay Foreman didn't see the workload that I thought that he'd see, Josh Downs was a massive disappointment, and Chris Rodriguez didn't really get that much work or at least do that well, despite Bryan Robinson being sidelined. I at least nailed the Raiders' backfield situation, DeMarcus Robinson found the end zone, and Ty Chandler was a freaking monster. It was a below average week overall, though. It was also a really weird week in fantasy football. Let's hope for a more predictable one here in Week 16

We'll begin by looking at players rostered in 10-50% of Yahoo! Leagues, who you might consider starting this week. And we'll start with some admittedly average quarterback streamers. I talked about Joe Flacco in the 15 Transactions episode. He's been hovering that 17 point mark during his three starts. And those three games were against top half opponents by adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks. He's been in good matchups. Well, this week, he gets another top ten matchup against the Texans. Flacco's thrown it down the field at a higher rate than the other Browns quarterbacks this year. And Houston ranks fifth in air yards per attempt allowed this season. They've also given up the ninth highest completion percentage on 15 plus air yard throws. So there's a chance for a big play from Joe Flacco in this game. So he could score some points in chunks. The downside right now for Flacco though, is that this game lost a little appeal with the news that CJ Stroud's unlikely to play this weekend. We'd rather have a back and forth shootout, and that's less likely with Case Keenum under center. But Flacco's still an OK QB2 type this week. Gardner Minchou once again, he's an option this week. I do have some fear that this could go south if Michael Pittman doesn't play. But if Pittman goes, which actually could happen based on some early week reports, if Pittman goes, I'd be OK with Minchou. The Colts have a pretty average team total this week, and Atlanta's the 9th best matchup for quarterbacks by just the points allowed. Minchou has been a QB1 in two of his last three. He's been a top 15 option in weekly scoring in three of his last four. He could get it done again this week. Now, I hesitate to say this, but I do think that Derek Carr is kind of in this bucket too. I'd probably lean the other two quarterbacks over Carr, just because the inconsistencies that we've seen from Carr this year, but the Rams are the eighth-best matchup for quarterbacks by adjusted points allowed this season. The matchup's at least there, and Carr looked a little bit better in Week 15 I do think he's more of a desperate play, though.

And running back, let's go back to a 15 transactions running back, and that's Justice Hill. As I mentioned on that 15 transaction show, the Ravens have used Hill much more in their hurry-up, their two-minute offense, than Gus Edwards. According to Fantasy Life's data, Hill has played on 76% of Baltimore's two-minute snaps this year. Edwards, he's at 13%. That could matter against San Francisco, because the 49ers are 5.5 point favorites. I mean, Hill can see work even when that game is close. I'm just saying that if this game goes south, if they're trailing, he's gonna be on the field more than Gus Edwards. And the 49ers are third in the league this year, and adjusted target share allowed to running backs. Meaning teams are targeting their running backs at a higher-than-average rate when they face the 49ers. So, Justice Hill is actually okay in some instances this week.

I've got two game script-related plays this week, too. The first one, Tajay Spears. Spears, as usual, could have a natural chance to just see a high target share. Prior to last week, he had seen a double-digit percentage target share in seven straight games. The Titans get Seattle this week. The Seahawks are road favorites. Seattle's also an above-average team and adjusted target share allowed to running backs, which could help Spears in the passing game, and they're the 10th best matchup and adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. Now, I don't adore Spears this week, but he's in that high-end RB4 range or so. You might be able to play him. And then the other game script back is Kenneth Gainwell. The Eagles are 11.5 home favorites this week against the Giants, and the G-Men rank as an above-average matchup for running backs by adjusted points allowed. This is really just a play on a positive game script. If Philly gets up, if they're leading by a lot of points, we might see less DeAndre Swift and more Kenneth Gainwell. Gainwell's seen at least a 22% running back rush air in each of his last three, and he's played at least 40% of the team snaps in those games. It wouldn't surprise me if those numbers are a little bit higher this week if this game goes how we think it's gonna go. Moving on to wide receiver, I'm gonna talk about Tyler Boyd again. I did on the 50 Transactions episode, and he's technically at 51% rostered, but I think it's a worthwhile callout.