840: Week 12 Sleepers

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason, and this episode, 840 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by FanDuel.

Thanks for tuning in.

I'm pumped about the results of last week's Sleeper Show. There were a handful of misses. Darnell Mooney didn't do anything. Curtis Samuel got ejected. Tajay Spears was a disappointment despite another target share north of 12%. Luke Musgrave was okay enough as a streamer, but Chigga Conkwo wasn't.

But I think last week's episode was one of the best of the season. Jordan Love scored over 20 fantasy points. Jaden Reed showed up. Rondell Moore didn't see a ton of volume, but he did get a long touchdown. Khalil Shakir scored over 20 PPR points. Ty Chandler was really solid. Daryl Henderson was a top 20 running back, and even Deep Sleepers Tanner Hudson, who was the tight end 12, and Justin Watson, who was the wide receiver 16, those guys showed up. Now, I can't expect that kind of performance each week, but I'm going to do my best. We've got a crazy one in week 12 Let's get to it.

So this episode is dropping earlier than usual this week, which means the percent roster numbers aren't as reliable as they usually are. And doing this episode earlier, it also means that it's harder to pick out usable players with really low percent roster numbers.

Because I have even less of a feel for injuries across the league. I don't know as much right now. That can often help me find super deep plays each week. Now this isn't going to make some dramatic impact on today's show. It's just that a few players may be over that 50% mark by the time that you hear this. And some players may become obvious sleepers by Friday or Saturday. But that technically happens every single week anyway. With that being said, we're only going to look at one tier of players this week. We're going to look at players who are rostered in to 50% of Yahoo leagues. And as usual, we're going to kick things off at quarterback. Baker Mayfield is under that 50% rostered mark right now. That might change by the time that he plays, but regardless, I think he makes for a good quarterback streamer this week. The Bucks get the Colts, and Indianapolis is the ninth best matchup for quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Indy's given up the eighth most touchdowns in the league this year, and they're completely average in passing EPA per drop back allowed and air yards per attempt allowed. It's just a pretty neutral to above average matchup overall, but Baker's been pretty strong over the last month. He had a tough matchup against San Francisco this past week, but he was a top 12 weekly quarterback in each of his four games prior to that, so I think he's fine enough this week.

In that same game, though, is Gardner-Minshew. The Colts actually have the 10th highest implied team total this week, according to Fandl Sportsbook, and Tampa Bay has been great for fantasy quarterbacks. Like I mentioned on the 50 Transactions episode this week, they've given up a top three quarterback performance in four of their last six games. Each of those quarterbacks hit at least 320 passing yards.

Teams throw against the Bucks. They've allowed the 7th highest neutral script pass rate and 6th highest overall pass rate this season, all while generating a bottom six pressure rate. So, Minshew should have time to throw. It's against a secondary that ranks 28th in EPA per drop back allowed.

I'm gonna go back to Jordan Love this week, too. Green Bay gets the Lions this week, and they're in a domed environment in Detroit, and the game has a respectable 46.5 point over-under. The Lions have allowed the 8th highest pass rate against them this season. They've been below average in EPA per drop back, and they've given up the 6th most adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Now Detroit's been pretty good at getting to the quarterback this year, but Green Bay's actually top 5 in pressure rate allowed. That's a plus for Jordan Love, so he's not a bad option. Now moving on to running back, let's talk about Ty Chandler some more. I know I talked about this on the 10 Trends episode, but Ty Chandler was easily the better running back this past week for Minnesota between him and Alexander Madison. He had a 70% success rate. Madison's was 33%. Now I'm not sure if Minnesota is going to reward him with more work, even though they should. But the Vikings do get the Bears this week, and Chicago is the fifth best matchup for running backs by Adjusted Fantasy Points allowed. Even if he's capped at like 12 or 13 touches, Chandler might be able to be flex-worthy given the matchup.