832: Week 10 Sleepers

SPEAKER_2 (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast, with your host, JJ Zachariason.

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason, and this is episode 832 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's Sleeper Show was very hit or miss. Like, players either did really well, or they just couldn't get going at all.

Devon Singletary couldn't come through despite a really good snap-sharing usage. Elijah Moore, Jaden Reid, Justice Hill, Jonathan Mingo, they were not very good plays.

But there were a few very nice hits. Tank Del was featured, and he went completely nuts. Luke Musgrave finally found the end zone. The defensive streamers were strong, and Cade freaking Otten, man, Cade Otten had a multi-touchdown day.

Bi-weeks can make this show difficult because there are fewer players to choose from. So I was happy with some of the big performances from last week's show. But I'm hoping for more hits this week than last week, because there were a high number of misses too. Unfortunately, with us all experiencing these tough bi-weeks, things aren't going to get any easier here in Week 10

We'll kick things off and look at players rostered in 10% to 50% of Yahoo leagues who you might want to consider this week. And we're going to start with Josh Dobbs. The matchup for Dobbs this week is below average on paper. The Saints rank as the 22nd best matchup for quarterbacks in Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed. But we've seen Dobbs do just fine in tough matchups this year, including a QB1 performance against Baltimore. So it's not necessarily the end of the world.

Dobbs is averaging 36 rushing yards per game this season. He scored a rushing touchdown in four separate contests. Basically, when you look at his rushing production, he's giving you an extra passing touchdown worth of fantasy points in every single game based on that ground game work. So the rushing and just the way that he played last week, he's an okay streaming choice as a result.

There's also Will Levis. Tampa Bay's secondary has been really, really bad of late. In week 6, Jared Goff finishes the QB3 against them. Desmond Ritter the next week was the QB18, but it's also Desmond Ritter, and he threw for 250 yards, which was above average for him. Then, the last two weeks, we've watched Josh Allen and CJ Stroud tear them apart. They ranked as a QB2 and a QB1 in fantasy. The Bucs have allowed almost 350 passing yards per game over the last month. They now rank in the bottom 5 in passing EPA per drop back allowed, and teams have thrown it against Tampa Bay at the 7th highest rate in the league. So that leads me to Will Levis. He's been serviceable across his first two games as starter. The matchup is definitely there for him this week. And then finally, the guy that I talked about in the 50 Transactions episode, Taylor Heinecke. Heinecke gets Arizona. The Cardinals are a top 5 opponent for quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Atlanta, according to Fandl's sportsbook, currently has the 9th highest implied team total on this week's slate. Heinecke's also been pushing the ball down the field more, at least compared to Desmond Ritter. And Arizona ranks last in completion rate allowed on 15-plus air yard throws this year. I'd rather go with Will Levesse or Josh Dobbs, but don't sleep on Taylor Heinecke.

At running back this week, let's kick things off with Antonio Gibson. He's seen target shares of 10% and 11.4% over his last two games, and he's played a little more snaps compared to the two prior to that. He's also coming off his highest running back rush share since Week 4, where he saw a quarter of Washington's running back rushes.

Seattle's been a top-10 matchup for running backs this season in Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, and there's a chance that Washington trails in this game. That would lead to more pass-catching work out of the backfield for Antonio Gibson. I don't love him, but it's a tough week with buys, so he works.

In that same game is Zach Charbonnet, and he's still rostering in just 44% of Yahoo! leagues. Charbonnet has seen snapshares of 59% and 55% over his last two games, essentially doubling his snap rate from earlier this season. That's led to running back rushshares of 39% and 31%, and he's had route participation rates above the 50% mark. Those are not elite numbers, but they're flex-worthy numbers. Washington has a beatable defense, and like I said with Antonio Gibson, Seattle could lead in that game. That may make them want to use Charbonneau a little bit more to close things out, to save Kenneth Walker. So I think Charbonneau makes plenty of sense.