823: 10 Trends for Week 8

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This is The Late-Round Podcast, with your host, JJ Zachariason.

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up everyone, it's JJ Zachariason, and this is episode 823 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Before getting into the trends this week, I want to shout out the Late-Round Fantasy Football Newsletter. If you want my written content, aside from my draft guide and my prospect guide, that's where you can find it, and it's totally free. Just head to lateraound.com, click newsletter, and subscribe. Now let's get to these 10 trends.

Trend 1 this week is that Alexander Madison saw a decline in usage. I had Cam Akers as a dart throw buy candidate a couple of weeks back, but then Alexander Madison saw a jump in usage in week 6 against Chicago.

But that jump came back down in week 7 Madison saw his snap share go from 79% to 53%. He's now been below the 55% snap rate mark in two of his last three. And in week 7, he saw his lowest running back rush share of the season at 44%. Cam Akers had more rushes than Alexander Madison had. If Akers is still on your waiver wire, he should be added. He just was rostered in too many leagues for me to recommend that on the 15 Trends Action Show this week.

Speaking of the Vikings, I talked about this before, but the trend just keeps continuing. The Vikings currently have 16 offensive touchdowns, and all 16 of those scores have come via the pass. It's absolutely wild. That type of number regresses. That's not going to keep up. And when it does regress, it will make Kirk Cousins a slightly less viable fantasy option. Now, fortunately, the Vikings are a pass-heavy team, so their rate of scoring passing touchdowns is going to be higher than the league average. It's just not going to be this high.

Okay, I've got one more Vikings trend for you this week. Justin Jefferson has now been sidelined for two games. In those two games, TJ Hogginson has averaged a target share per game rate of 27.3%. Before that Jefferson injury, his target share per game was 19.2%. I made the comparison the other night on Twitter, but Hogginson is essentially the tight end version of Alvin Camero right now. He gets low average at the target dump offs, which are basically a cheat code in PPR formats. As long as Jefferson is out, those are going to continue coming his way at a high rate.

During the Chicago Bears' first four games this year, they ranked second in total touchdowns allowed defensively, they were 30 second in sack rate, and they were dead last in passing EPA per drop back allowed. But that Bears defense isn't the cakewalk matchup that it once was. Over their last three games, their 20th in offensive touchdowns allowed and their 10th best in passing EPA per drop back allowed. Now they faced relatively easy competition against the Commanders, Vikings and Raiders. But it's something to keep in mind when you're using players against the Bears. The matchup probably isn't as easy as it looks on paper.

The Saints are using Taysom Hill more as a traditional tight end. He saw a 17% target share in week six. He followed that up this past week with a 9.4% target share. His route participation over his last two games have been 62% and 71%. His previous season high was 43%. That's making him very viable in fantasy football because not only does he have some reception viability now, but we know the touchdown upside is there given how they've used him historically at the goal line.

According to fantasylife.com's data, and I say this each time that I reference that site, but this is absolutely free, you guys. You should check it out. But according to fantasylife, Christian McCaffrey is tied for the league lead right now in route participation with one other running back. That one other running back is not Bichon Robinson, it's not Travis Etienne, it's not Kyron Williams, it's Rachaad White. Now White hasn't had the best season in the world from a fantasy perspective. He's kind of just been fine. But he's seen a double digit percentage target share in each of his last five games. And Tampa Bay running backs have faced the toughest schedule in the league thus far in Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed. The schedule does open up for him moving forward, so I'm optimistic.

Now another player that I liked pre-draft, Drake London. He saw one target and he didn't catch a pass in week one. Since then though, he's averaged a 24.3% target share per game rate. He's averaged 13.9 PPR points per game. That PPR points per game rate since week one, it ranks as a low-end wide receiver 2, high-end wide receiver 3 And he's done that with just two receiving touchdowns. He's not doing anything special in the touchdown department.