819: 10 Trends for Week 7

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up everyone, it's JJ Zachariason, and this episode, 819 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Before getting into the trends this week, I'm gonna do what I did last week and ask for a favor. If this show has helped you out in the past, if you listen to it and you enjoy it, do me a favor and leave a rating and review. Apple Podcasts is usually best for it, but it really helps the show grow. So that's my call to action to kick off today's show. Hit pause and leave a rating and review, and then enjoy the 10 trends that I'm about to throw into your brain.

Trend one this week is about Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints. I actually almost had Carr as one of the transactions for the 15 Transaction Show this week because of two things. First is the schedule. Over their next four games, the Saints get the Jags, Colts, Bears and Vikings. According to my Adjusted Fantasy Points allowed numbers, the Jags are the 16th best matchup for quarterbacks, the Colts are fifth, the Bears are sixth, and the Vikings are 15th. So they're all average to plus matchups.

But more related to this trend show is that the passing attack, it's set to see a little bit of regression. Based on Derek Carr's yardage total, he should have closer to eight touchdowns rather than the five that he currently has.

That plays into the fact that Carr's touchdown rate is just 2.5%. That's a career low. And that's a number that typically does regress. So I'm expecting the passing attack to look a little bit better statistically moving forward.

Speaking of team touchdowns, did you know that the Broncos currently sit with a pass to rush touchdown ratio of 12 to 1? They have 12 passing touchdowns this year to just one rushing touchdown. That's a passing touchdown rate of about 92%. Based on their overall pass rate or how often they're throwing the ball, we should expect that number to be almost 25 percentage points lower than it currently is.

So while I'm expecting the Saints passing attack to look better, I think Denver's might lean the other direction moving forward.

There was some evidence that Minnesota was going to start leaning into Cam Akers a little bit more in that backfield a couple of weeks ago. In weeks 4 and 5, Alexander Madison had snap shares of 66% and then 53%. But in week 6, that number shot back up to 78%. He's not the sexiest running back in the world, but the running back position is an absolute disaster right now. So Madison's fine enough as an RB too.

Zach Moss out snapped Jonathan Taylor 49 to 10 during Taylor's return two weeks ago. In week 6, that gap shrunk. Moss had 37 snaps. Taylor was at 32 Taylor saw his route participation almost triple, which led to an 11.5% target share. Now Moss was still getting better usage in week 6, but it's clear that week 7, it might be the week where we see these numbers flip. Where they start to favor Jonathan Taylor a little bit more. Unfortunately, the Colts get the Browns.

The Atlanta Falcons have seen more drop backs than Rush Attempts in each of their last four games. They've been throwing the ball more. And when you compare that to 2022, it's pretty crazy. Because the Falcons last year, that happened just three times. They had more drop backs than Rush Attempts only three times last season.

On the year, Atlanta ranks 24th in pass rate. As we know, last season, their pass rate was historically low. So things have definitely bounced back, as we see happen each season in the NFL. And that's helped make some of these weapons in the passing attack more viable. Drake London, in particular, has seen back-to-back top 20 performances in PPR leagues. He's averaged over eight targets per game since that week one outing where he had just one target. This is why we shouldn't overreact to week one performances. Right, Calvin Ridley managers?

Devontae Smith has been a low-key frustrating player for Fantasy this year. After such a promising start to the season where he had back-to-back top 20 performances, Smith hasn't finished in the top 20 since then. And over his last two, despite seeing 16 targets, he's combined for 11 PPR points. I'm concerned here, but I'm not overly concerned. The target shares haven't been horrendous. He's hit a 23% target share in 4 of 6 games. And one thing that I really like about Smith is the playoff schedule. The Eagles get the Seahawks, Giants and Cardinals in the Fantasy playoffs. So if you can buy low, I don't think that's a terrible idea.