816: Week 6 Sleepers

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharissa.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason, and this episode, 816 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by FanDuel.

Thanks for tuning in. Last week's Sleeper Show was definitely better than the Week 4 one. It was a nice bounce back. I talked up Sam Howell. He had a big game. Jaleel McLaughlin and Tajay Spears were both top 10 running back options. Rashid Rice scored a touchdown. Zach Ertz did too. And Josh Downs, a sub 10% play. He was a top 20 option in PPR formats.

Now, I didn't get everything right. That's never gonna happen. Both Josh Dobbs and Zach Wilson, they were bad streaming choices. Michael Wilson didn't give us an encore. Wondell Robinson wasn't used very creatively once again. That limited his upside despite a 20% target share.

Overall, though, it was a pretty good week. I'll give it a 5 out of 10 Let's try to be even better here in week 6

We'll kick things off this week the same way that we did with last week's show, and that's with Sam Howe as a quarterback streamer. He fits the criteria of being a player rostered in 10% to 50% of Yahoo leagues for this tier of players. Howe's facing Atlanta. The Falcons have actually been a below average matchup for quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed this year. That's not a good thing for Howe. But what I'm intrigued by is that the commanders have been very bad at keeping Howe upright, and Atlanta isn't very good at getting to the quarterback. Quarterback sacks aren't just an offensive line thing. This is on Sam Howe too. But the commanders have given up a bottom five pressure rate in football this year. The Falcons are bottom five in pressure rate defensively. So the matchup is actually decent for him. And honestly, Howe's been low-key not bad in fantasy. He's averaged 16.4 standard fantasy points per game. That's not great, but that includes a contest and a much more difficult matchup than this one where he faced the Bills. He scored less than a point in that game. So I think Howe's a pretty solid play. I also think that Baker Mayfield's a solid play. Mayfield's given us a top 12 QB1 performance and two of four games this year. Now, he faces a Lions team that ranks as a top 10 favorable matchup and adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

There's a chance for a pass-heavy script for Tampa, because Detroit's a good team, and they faced the third highest pass rate in football this year. So Baker Mayfield makes sense.

Now, moving on to running back, I guess I should just talk about this Dolphins' backfield in general. There's no Devon Aitcham. So Raheem Mostert, he's the RB1. You should play Raheem Mostert. It's a great matchup. He's going to see a lot of volume. But because it's a great matchup against the Panthers, and because Miami's a 13.5 point favorite, there are going to be other running backs involved more than likely. Will it be Jeff Wilson? Well, at the time of this recording, I have no idea if he's going to be ready to play. And I'm not sure the Dolphins are going to rush him back in a matchup where they could be leading, where they're big favorites.

Chris Brooks and Savon Achmed are the other two running backs to focus on. Brooks played ahead of Achmed last week because of his special teams ability. But Achmed played ahead of Brooks back in week one when Devon Achand was out. And Brooks was only on special teams in week two when the four running backs were all together. So my best guess today, right now, is that Savon Achmed gets the second most touches in this Dolphins backfield this weekend. Because Jeff Wilson might not be ready. Chris Brooks, as much as he's intriguing, he's been a special teamer. And Achmed does sort of fit the Devon A. Chan mold. But this is subject to change. Hopefully, we learn a little bit as the week goes on. For now, as a deep sleeper, it's Savon Achmed. As a not-so-deep sleeper, it would be Jeff Wilson. Kenneth Gainwell is not the lead back for Philadelphia. That's Deandre Swift. But he's averaged a 26% running back rush air per game over his last two. That's led to 11 touches on the ground, and he's seen four targets. He's not a horrible desperation play this week. Philadelphia is facing the Jets. They're seven-point favorites. New York is a top ten matchup for running backs and adjusted fantasy points allowed. If a positive game script hits for Philly in this one, which is entirely possible, then Gainwell could see eight to ten touches.