#774: Quarterly Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis

**Marty Bent** (0:07)
You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.

**Matthew Mežinskis** (0:10)
When you talk about a Fed just going nuts, all the central banks going nuts.

**Marty Bent** (0:16)
So it's all acting like safe haven.
I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor. I mean, that's part of the bold case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

**Marty Bent** (0:36)
In a war in Iran, Yemen has stepped in. They're embargoing Saudi Arabia. We got AI taking over.
Models leaking into other models, destroying them. Open AI and hugging face. Regulatory capture coming to America. But the most important thing out there right now is the fact that the power law, or the power trend is broken.

**Matthew Mežinskis** (0:59)
Power curve.

**Marty Bent** (1:00)
The power curve.
Power curve is broken, sir. Are we going to be able to do this moving forward? What are we going to talk about?

**Matthew Mežinskis** (1:09)
You know, I'm always up for a challenge, my friend. And when I hear the chirps and see the tweets of, uh, you know, those very astute mathematical trend followers on Twitter saying, the good old power law doesn't work anymore. I'm happy to rise to the occasion to show you.
As I've been showing you on this show for how many years now?

**Marty Bent** (1:39)
I think we're at eight.

**Matthew Mežinskis** (1:40)
Yeah, for the monetary base. I don't think we've done power law updates all those times, but I have actually first charted that back in 2018 as well. So I'm happy to put some minds at ease that know the good old power curve of Bitcoin's network adoption is still growing fantastically well.
And you should take comfort in that fact, not try to get all upset and worried about it. And that's what I'm here today to help you with. Just ease minds and let Bitcoin help you. That's it.

**Marty Bent** (2:21)
Well, if I recall correctly, the last time we met here, we were probably around the same price level. And it was generational buying times. We looked at Bitcoin pricing, silver pricing, gold. And they were they were around.
The I think the lowest band, it could be 90th percentile below the mean or the trend, excuse me. And.

**Matthew Mežinskis** (2:47)
It's even lower.

**Marty Bent** (2:49)
It's even lower now.

**Matthew Mežinskis** (2:50)
Yeah.
You want to take a look at it? Yeah.

**Marty Bent** (2:55)
I think we did February.
We are five months from our last recording. Generational buying opportunity five, five months ago, obviously, we've gone down, we've gone up, we putzed around. So what are we looking at now?

**Matthew Mežinskis** (3:09)
So I'm going to take off this for a second. This is the old Bitcoin power law or the power curve, if you like, what I like to call it, because the word law seems to trigger people, which we can we can also talk about. But you know, I do these these updates a lot. I do streams like this. If people want to see more, I check this stuff a lot. But every day we get a new data point here. And I don't know, you and I, Marty probably started to do it.
I feel like it was somewhere around 2020, maybe. Can't remember, honestly, when I started to get these charts running full time. But anyway, if you go log linear, like most charts, like a stock or if you're looking at bond yields, you're going to see straight lines. But Bitcoin log linear, we have that nice rainbow parabola. That should immediately make you think that something else is going on with Bitcoin. If you go log log, you can see that straight line actually starts to emerge. But this chart I like, and I've been showing more, because I'm showing how the bands of regression deviations have evolved over time, and that they're not always perfect, of course. You want to draw those straight lines in the past, you're basically actually extrapolating from present, back to the past and into the future. So you see that I'm doing it into the future here, but back to the past, it's actually not. We see those nice, beautiful straight bands, which I can show you as well. I have plenty of charts like that. It's not how it looked at the time. This is how the power law looked at the time every day.
A couple of things to take away from this chart basically, as you see, early years 2011, even after 2013, you see there's more spaces between the bands. Bands aren't as close together, and they can be a bit lumpy. I'm actually taking Q100 off, because it's a wild one.