#422 David Rosenberg: The Fed Is Going to Trip, Recession Odds Now Above 50%

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Julia La Roche (1:01)

Hey everyone, welcome back to another in-studio episode of The Julia La Roche Show, where we are joined by David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research. In this episode, we get Dave's sobering outlook on the economy and the markets, and why he thinks we're in the 13th inning for the markets. He also explains why he thinks Fed chair Warsh is making some dangerous moves with the rate hikes and what everyone is getting wrong about inflation. He also shares how he wants to be allocated and why he is favoring treasuries, which is a bit of a contrarian call.

We also talk about his brand new book, A Bear in the Bull Ring. By the way, if you purchase a copy, all of the benefits go toward charities for Crohn's and Colitis, Parkinson's and cancer.

As always, I really enjoyed this conversation with Dave. I certainly learned a lot and I think you will too.

Hey, everyone. Welcome back to another special in-studio episode of The Julia La Roche Show where we are joined today by David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, author of Bear in the Bull Ring, How Independent Thinking Protects Your Money and Improves Your Life. Dave, so great to see you. Thank you so much for being here.

David Rosenberg (2:18)

Well, Julia, thanks for having me in and doing it live.

Julia La Roche (2:22)

I love doing it live.

SPEAKER_1 (2:23)

We'll have to do more of these.

David Rosenberg (2:24)

It's better live than virtual. I agree. I think it's been like seven years or so since.

Julia La Roche (2:30)

That's right. It was when we did our first interview together. It was a live event. It was, I guess, the Battle of the Davids because it was David Zervos and David Rosenberg.

David Rosenberg (2:39)

Yeah.

Julia La Roche (2:40)

Debating.

David Rosenberg (2:40)

Yeah. And when I asked people until this day that we're there, do you remember what it was I said?

They say, not a word. And I say, well, that's people I warm to the most or those with short memories.

Julia La Roche (2:52)

That's funny. Oh, Dave. It's been a while since we've even had you on the podcast. And I would love to get your updated view on where we are in the economy. Let's throw markets in there as well. More of the big picture macro view for you today.

What's been on your radar of late? What do you make of where we are and where do you see things headed, Dave? Okay.

David Rosenberg (3:14)

Well, do we have enough time to go through dinner and have pizza? There's a lot to cover there. I'll just say that it took me 65 years to write that book, but I really crammed it into the last few months. And I've been in this business 40 years, okay? And I don't remember a time in my professional career where I have seen so many imbalances, divergences and extremes, not just in the market, but also in the economy as I see today.

So we talk about the markets and we can see just how narrowly based it is.

Ten stocks accounting for over 40% of the market cap. We're still within striking distance of the all-time highs. And yet the average and median stock are down almost 20%. 40% of the SMB 500 is actually in a bear market right now. But everybody just looks at the headline major averages and makes the conclusion that we're still in this very flashy bull market, which seems to me ended probably a couple of months ago.