(39-15, 72%) NFL Week 6 Best Bets & Player Props 2026: Cowboys-Packers, Bears-Falcons

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Warren Sharp (1:01)

I'm Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, and I hope that this has become your new favorite football podcast. I've assembled a team of experts, and we're going to be breaking down all the action in this weekend's games. We're going to be hitting college football and the NFL. In college football, here's some of the games we're going to be covering. Ohio State versus Indiana, Alabama versus Tennessee, and Notre Dame versus BYU. And then we're going to pivot over to discuss the NFL. We're going to be getting some NFL ref angles, some prop bets, and my best bet of the week, of course. Some of the games that we'll be breaking down in the NFL, we're going to hit the Texas at Jaguars over in London. We're also going to cover the Ravens at the Browns, the Cardinals at the Rams, the Steelers at the Bucs, and then Sunday Night Football, the Dallas Cowboys at the Green Bay Packers. We'll save Monday Night Football for our Monday recap show, where Curtis has been really hot on his favorite bets since several in a row. We're going to be talking about that game on our next episode. Make sure that you guys are subscribed. But before we get into that, let's sit back and start breaking down these games.

All right, guys, obviously, the crowning jewel of this show is going to be the best bet at the end. We're 39 and 15 lifetime, an outstanding record, but hungry for a win this week. I got a best bet that I really like. Before we get into that, I want to talk about some of the biggest keys to these games, and I think some things that you should be aware of. I've got an interesting angle here on some underdogs. But before I get into that one, I do want to talk about the fact that there is a team in the NFL whose defense through five weeks has gone up against four backup quarterbacks.

That might sound hard to believe, but it's absolutely true. And I'm talking none other than the Green Bay Packers defense.

That's right. By my accounting and my strength of schedule tool, the Green Bay Packers have played the number one easiest schedule of opposing defenses.

But primarily for quarterbacks, it's been pretty much of a joke. Let's start with week one. They're scheduled to face Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray gets knocked out of that game very early in the game. So completely cold off the bench, not having taken practice reps, in steps Carson Wentz, backup face number one. Then week four, they get a rookie quarterback, Jalen Daniels for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, making his first ever start in the NFL. The very next game, they get Tyson Bajent, the backup quarterback for the Chicago Bears, who then was so bad that he gets benched after averaging 4.1 yards per temp, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and in steps Case Keenum. That's five games, four backup quarterbacks faced. They also got to play Michael Pennex in his first game off of a season ending injury. So very unique situation there. The only quarterback that hasn't been a backup or that wasn't playing his first game off of a prior season ending injury was Geno Smith.

And if you look at the overall schedule of passing defenses, passing offenses that the Green Bay Packers have faced, which will pop up on the screen right now, you could see that these passing attacks with the Green Bay Packers defensive face are not very formidable. We're talking about every single one of these teams has ranked below average so far this season, and most of them have been well below average, including the Vikings, Jets, Falcons, and the Bucs. Now they're going up against the Dallas Cowboys. And one thing that I want you guys to do, obviously you could see on the strength of schedule, significantly more difficult assignment here, trying to slow down the Dallas Cowboys passing attack than those prior passing attacks and all those backup quarterbacks that they were going up against. Pay close attention in this game to when the Dallas Cowboys have the football because they have been elite in yards per drive and plays per drive, where they rank number one in yards per drive at 41.2 and plays per drive at 6.8. And as a result, they have the number three highest red zone trip rate at 40% of their drives, make it to the red zone. They have the number one highest goal to go trip rate, 27% of their drives get into goal to go situations. They have the number one highest scores per drive, 56% of their drives score points. That's the best in the NFL. And they have the number three highest points per drive, 3.1 average points per drive for the Dallas Cowboys offense. So they should progress the ball into the Green Bay Packers 20 yard line. So the Dallas Cowboys red zone fairly frequently. And that could pose a problem for the Green Bay Packers when Dallas does get in there. Because Dallas has scored touchdowns on 83% of their red zone trips. That's the number two best rate in the NFL behind only the San Francisco 49ers. Meanwhile, the Packers defense, you know what they're surrendering? They are surrendering 81% touchdown rate inside of the red zone, which ranks 31st in the NFL. And that's despite facing the number one easiest schedule of opposing quarterback. So we've got the number two best scoring team inside of the red zone in the Dallas Cowboys going up against the number two worst red zone defense of the Green Bay Packers, who has that number two worst ranking despite playing the number one easiest schedule in the NFL of opposing passing attacks. This game could be fun for the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.