2475: $2 Million Bitcoin Supply Shock - Saylor Is About To Set It Off

Justin Verrengia (0:00)

Bitcoin's approaching a breaking point. The pressure is building, the money is lining up, and the window is closing. Most won't see it until it's too late. Today, we're breaking down exactly why. Let's get right into it. There isn't enough Bitcoin for what's coming. Saylor wants more, Wall Street wants more, companies want more, governments want more, and they're all fighting over the same shrinking pile of available bitties. Now Samson Mow says we're heading straight for a supply shock. One where the exchanges start running out of Bitcoin. And when that happens, the chase will get absolutely insane. This is how $2 million Bitcoin happens. Samson believes that Saylor and Adam Back are about to buy so much Bitcoin that the available supply simply won't be able to keep up with the demand. And his thesis goes way beyond two Bitcoin legends just stacking sats. He believes every company will eventually have a Bitcoin treasury. For years Bitcoin adoption was driven primarily by individuals. Then the corporations entered the game, then Wall Street arrived. Now governments are accumulating Bitcoin and discussing strategic reserves. Every new class of buyer enters the same market, but Bitcoin doesn't magically create more supply because demand explodes. That's the part the market continues to underestimate. There will never be more than 21 million biddies. An estimated three to four million are permanently lost. Long-term holders now control roughly 84% of the Bitcoin supply.

Public companies and governments collectively hold around 1.9 million Bitcoin. US-spot Bitcoin ETFs control another roughly 1.3 million Bitcoin, or more than 6% of the entire supply. Saylor's strategy alone holds 847,666 biddies, and BlackRock's iBit controls 801,769 biddies. Think about what that means. Corporations are stacking, governments are accumulating, ETFs are absorbing Bitcoin at an institutional scale. This is how supply shocks get built. And Saylor has spent years demonstrating exactly what aggressive corporate accumulation looks like. Now imagine that strategy spreading across corporate America. Not one strategy, hundreds of them, thousands eventually, all chasing the hardest asset on earth. That's where things can get violent, because price is ultimately the mechanism that forces the buyers and the sellers to meet. If Bitcoin holders refuse to sell at today's price, the price has to move higher. If they still refuse, higher. And if genuine supply shock develops, while billions of dollars continue chasing Bitcoin, the repricing can happen much faster than most people expect. That's why $2 million Bitcoin isn't simply some random number pulled out of thin air. Bitcoin reaching $2 million would put the network in the neighborhood of a $40 trillion market cap. Massive? Absolutely. Gold alone has already demonstrated that the world will store tens of trillions of dollars in an asset, primarily because people believe it preserves value. Bitcoin takes that monetary competition global. 24 hours a day, seven days a week, no borders, no central bank, no company controlling the supply, and no ability to print more Bitcoin when demand goes vertical. Meanwhile, the backdrop keeps getting more interesting. US-bought Bitcoin ETF started October with fresh inflows. Bitcoin has been outperforming gold. October has historically been one of Bitcoin's strongest months, hence the nickname October. And even mainstream financial television is openly discussing whether another bull market is beginning. None of those things guarantee what happens next, but they're all arriving while the competition for available Bitcoin continues growing. That's the setup. And if Samson Mow is right about what comes next, the question won't be who wants Bitcoin. It'll be who is still willing to sell it. Because while the Bitcoin supply squeeze is building, the signals around this market are starting to flip at the same time. E-Tev money is flowing back in, Bitcoin is outperforming gold, October has historically delivered, and even mainstream financial media is asking whether the bull market is back. But first, let's listen to Samson Mow explain exactly what he believes is coming next.

Samson Mow (4:12)

These are buyers of last resort. They will always buy Bitcoin. They're price insensitive. They will always buy, even if it's 500,000 a coin or 700,000 a coin. So I just think the supply shock is really inevitable. The amount of Bitcoin available is actually lower than most people think. People think there's, you know, two, three million coins on exchanges ready for sale. But those are not coins that are meant for sale. That is the quiddity, that's market makers and trading firms and hedge funds.

Justin Verrengia (4:40)

I want to talk to Samson. He makes a lot of good points here, predicting the supply shock, discussing the available float on the exchanges. If we look at the on-chain analytics, you may see there's two to three million available Bitcoin, but they're not all available for sale. Some of them have to remain on the exchange for liquidity purposes. So once all the available float does dry up, it doesn't stop MSTR, BlackRock and the largest buyers on the planet from buying. They're going to be forced to buy the top. It's all irrelevant what the price action is, because there's investors, obviously, that are going to continue to buy and ape in regardless of the price. In fact, when we're at price discovery at all time highs, history has shown us that's when people ape in the most. So very fascinating times. And then when you start to also add an addition, the sovereign wealth funds, all the massive banks and institutions on a worldwide level, including nation-state game theory, United States government, Russia, China, Japan, Korea. And the list goes on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on. Rest in peace, Oliver Tree. That's one of my jams right there. If you don't know, now you know.