2386: $13T Bitcoin Choice - BlackRock Sounds the Alarm

**Justin Verrengia** (0:00)
You're listening to this podcast, so I know you've got a curious mind. Here's a helpful fact you might not know yet. Drivers who switch and save with Progressive save over $900 on average. Pop over to progressive.com, answer some questions, and you'll get a quick quote with discounts that are easy to come by. In fact, 99% of their auto customers earn at least one discount. Visit progressive.com and see if you can enjoy a little cash back. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates, national average 12-month savings of $946 by new customers, surveyed who save what progressive between June 2024 and May 2025 Potential savings will vary. Everyone thinks retail investors will get priced out. But what happens when countries get priced out? Let's discuss it. The next country to buy 1 million Bitcoin might not be the United States. It could be China, it could be Russia, or it could be another nation that moves before America does. And the $13 trillion BlackRock just explained exactly why.
That's when I realized this isn't just another Bitcoin story. It's a geopolitical race for the hardest money on earth. Because BlackRock recently warned if the United States delays passing comprehensive crypto legislation, other nations won't. That completely changed how I viewed this story. Because they weren't really talking about regulation. They were talking about global competition. Most people still think Bitcoin is simply another investment. Governments are beginning to view it as something far more strategic. History has repeatedly shown that nations compete for scarce resources. For example, gold, oil, rare earth minerals, shipping lanes, energy, infrastructure. Every one of those assets becomes strategically important because supply was limited. There are no new discoveries left waiting underground. No technological breakthrough will ever increase Bitcoin's supply.
The protocol permanently caps the total supply at 21 million Bitcoin, regardless of how many buyers appear. That's exactly what changes the incentives for every nation. If one nation begins accumulating meaningful amounts of Bitcoin, every competing nation must immediately ask whether waiting creates a strategic disadvantage. The first nation secures the cheapest Bitcoin. Every nation that follows pays a higher price for an increasingly scarce asset. And every nation that waits even longer has fewer Bitcoin even available to acquire. That's where game theory becomes impossible to ignore. Every country's decision is influenced by the decisions of every other country. Nobody wants to finish second when the supply can never increase. Every participant must consider not only what they believe about Bitcoin, but what every other nation is likely to do next. That dynamic is already unfolding throughout the private sector. Strategy now holds 847,363 BTC, representing more than 4% of the entire supply.
Metaplanet continues expanding. It just reached 43,000 Bitcoin, becoming one of the world's largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries. US-bought Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold more than 1.3 million Bitcoin, representing roughly 6% of the total supply.
Long-term hodlers continue locking Bitcoin into cold storage, including Donald Trump, who has now disclosed having over 100 million worth of Bitcoin separated into cold storage wallets. Now imagine governments joining the same competition. Instead of companies competing for quarterly allocations, entire nations will eventually compete for hundreds of thousands or even 1 million Bitcoin. That's when the supply equation changes forever. Every Bitcoin purchase permanently reduces the supply available to every future buyer. That's why BlackRock's warning should not be ignored. If the United States moves slowly while other nations establish clear Bitcoin regulations, capital, innovation and talent will naturally flow to the countries that move first. The real story isn't whether one government buys Bitcoin tomorrow. The real story is that global incentives are beginning to change. As Bitcoin continues to mature, more governments will view it less as a speculative asset and more as a strategic monetary reserve. Once that transition begins, the conversation completely changes. The question is no longer whether Bitcoin matters. The question becomes how much Bitcoin is still available to accumulate before everyone else reaches the same conclusion. That's a completely different question. And if enough governments begin asking at the same exact time, Bitcoin's fixed supply will matter far more than today's headlines. BlackRock didn't predict which nation moves first. They simply acknowledge what the incentives now favor. And if they are right, the global Bitcoin race has already begun. Forget what I think, let's see what BlackRock thinks. Breaking news, $13 trillion BlackRock just warned that the Bitcoin Clarity Act delays. Other nations will rush to pass their own versions, quoting them here. You're going to see Asian governments pass equivalents to try to catch up and even get ahead of us. Here's a brand new clip.

**SPEAKER_2** (5:18)
I've been spending a lot of time in Asia. I've been in Korea and Hong Kong four times in the last nine months. They've, on the one hand, been waiting for the Clarity Act. I actually think if it's not passed, we're going to see Asian local governments pass equivalents to try to catch up and even get ahead of the US. So I'm long-term very optimistic.