2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker

**Jason Calacanis** (0:00)
Welcome back to the All-In Podcast, everybody. I'm your host, Jason Calacanis. I'll put in a bunch of plugs for the projects I'm working on throughout the show to annoy my co-hosts and continue the grift. But it is 2025, and we are doing our Bestie Awards. It's going to be amazing today. We've got so much to do today with us again for the second time. A truly amazing Bestie, Gavin Baker from Atreides Capital. Am I correct? Is it Atreides Capital?

**Gavin Baker** (0:27)
Atreides Management.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:28)
Oh, Atreides Management?

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:31)
Just call it House Atreides.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:34)
Nope, that's not going to be trouble. I pay. Gavin, welcome back to the program. Let us know, just briefly, what does Atreides do?

**Gavin Baker** (0:42)
Thanks for having me here, Jason, Chamath, and Dave. Atreides, we're a crossover firm. We invest publicly and privately in consumer and tech. And we go from Series A to MegaCap.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:55)
Got it. Okay, so you are a capital allocate, you're place bets on technology, on the most important new companies in the world. We'll get into that. And this is our prediction show. We did our Bestie Awards.

**David Friedberg** (1:06)
How big is your firm, Gavin?

**Jason Calacanis** (1:09)
Well, you just met the guy, Friedberg. You don't just ask him how big his firm is.

**David Friedberg** (1:12)
The audience wants to know, is this guy a player? Like, what's the deal?

**Gavin Baker** (1:16)
Roughly $4 billion.

**David Friedberg** (1:18)
Okay.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:19)
All right. So that's about a half an inch bigger than Chamath. He's really worried now. Not that he's the size queen or anything.
We're going to do a really great prediction show today, and we're going to do some super predictions this year, each bestie gets to make a super prediction or two during the show. And we're going to take those super predictions, Chamath, and we're going to put them on Polymarket. Yes, that's right, if you don't know Polymarket. There's a prediction market where people can place a wager, a bet, an investment in one or the other side.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (2:08)
Is my image good? It feels like it's blurry.

**Jason Calacanis** (2:11)
It's a little blurry. That's the avalanche coming. And so I guess, is that the MAGA avalanche? What is this avalanche? Is that people streaming across the border? What's the metaphor here, Chamath? Is that the huge orgasm that you're about to lay down in 2025 rocking the beam?

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (2:28)
No, no. This is a shout out to my friend Ruben Ostlund, who's the director of a bunch of really amazing movies, including the one behind me, Forrest Measurer.

**Jason Calacanis** (2:37)
There you go.

**David Friedberg** (2:38)
All right.

**Jason Calacanis** (2:39)
We did an amazing partnership with Polymarket. Friedberg, you want to detail the partnership in some way? I think you help work on it.

**David Friedberg** (2:45)
Well, we obviously have talked to Shane at Polymarket for some time, and we set up a deal with them where we could put our own markets up on the site. We're going to talk about a couple of our predictions this year, and then Polymarket will post them up on their site and people can trade them, obviously, XUS. We're really excited about it because it will allow us to track how we're doing and give us the opportunity on an ongoing basis to create markets. There'll be an All-In section on Polymarket where you can go in and see the All-In markets. It's going to be really cool.

**Jason Calacanis** (3:16)
Awesome. Fantastic. And so we just got, we're all wrapping up our ski trip here. Nick, I understand there was some footage, some found footage from the besties skiing. Is that true? Oh, here we go. Look at this. Here I come down the mountain. Gavin, I want you to rate everybody's skiing. Here I come.

**Gavin Baker** (3:36)
Looking great.

**Jason Calacanis** (3:37)
There comes Chamath. Looking good. And then here comes somebody, I think the technical term Joe Lonsdale does for that third person is a beep beep. OK, here we go. Look at this technique coming down. Look at Chamath. Chamath, you really advanced since last season. Look at him cutting those S turns. Gavin, what do you think? It's great.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (3:58)
Listen to me.
I made a very strategic decision to stop snowboarding so I could learn to ski with my kids. It is so hard to learn how to do something in your 40s. No, I mean, if you've never done it. But I do appreciate what you and your brother did for me last season. I learned a couple of things. So it's been my third season.