1129: 15 Transactions for Week 3

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up everyone, it's JJ Zachariason, and this episode 1129 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Before we get to this week's transactions, if you'd like this list directly to your email inbox, there's a solution for that, the Late-Round Newsletter. The newsletter is absolutely free, just hit the lateround.com and sign up. You get the data dump in your inbox on Monday morning, this transactions list on Tuesday morning, an awesome match-ups column from Brandon Gadula, and there's a wrap-up email from David Kitchen at the end of every week. So check it out, sign up for absolutely free, lateround.com.

Add Jonah Coleman.

So JK Dobbins now has a hamstring injury. The Broncos are saying that he's, quote, good, but who knows with a hamstring injury and who knows with JK Dobbins? Meanwhile, RJ Harvey, he also has a hammy injury. So Jonah Coleman could all of a sudden be in line for a lot of work in week three. After Dobbins left this past Sunday, Coleman saw an 83 percent snap share and he had 80 percent of Denver's rushes.

For what it's worth on his eight rush attempts, he had a 50 percent success rate. I thought he at least looked the part. Now, as many of you know, Coleman was a target of mine this summer, both in rookie drafts and in season long drafts, because I think he's a solid do-it-all back. There are three main production inputs in the ZAP model, which is my prospect model. Best season pro rated reception share, adjusted total yards per team play, and adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt. And this is for running backs. And those adjustments for the record, they account for age and they account for strength of opponent. Within those three categories, Coleman ranked in the 72nd, the 49th, and the 88th percentiles. According to PFF data, he was 89th percentile and avoided tackles per attempt. So this is all to say it was a weaker running back class, but I do think that Jonah Coleman was a good running back in that class. He's not the most explosive back in the world, but he can get tough yards and he can play every down. And now he might have some opportunity. So if Dobbins misses time, if Harvey is still limited, this could be the start of something big for Jonah Coleman.

By Drake London. It's honestly hard to talk about the Falcons offense because they've been that bad to start the season. It's been a disaster. And Drake London managers, you're probably not feeling that great. He's seen a 19 percent target share through two games. Jahan Dotson has more than double his area arts. But what if I told you that Michael Pennex, he has a chance to solve a lot of our Drake London problems. Pennex entered the league in 2024 Since the start of that season with Pennex under center, London's average 0.63 PPR points per route run and 2.99 yards per route run. And he's seen a target on almost 34 percent of his routes.

Without Pennex under center, those numbers dropped dramatically. London's PPR points per route run falls from 0.63 to .43. That's a 32 percent decrease. His yards per route run goes from 2.99 with Pennex to 1.91 without him. His targets per route run rate goes from 33.6 percent to 25.6 percent. Now, with Michael Pennex returning, it doesn't mean the Falcons offense is all of a sudden going to be amazing. I'm sure it's going to take a minute for him to get acclimated. There's obvious risk here in buying into Drake London, but I do think based on history, there's a chance that he could turn things around pretty quickly with Michael Pennex under center. So if you want to take a shot on a high upside player, one with some risk, there's no doubt there's risk here. I think Drake London makes a lot of sense given the way that he started this season.

Add Denzel Boston. This is a repeat transaction from last week, but I think it needs to be repeated. Denzel Boston is still available in nearly 70% of Yahoo! Leagues. Right now, he's tied with Casey Concepcion with 11 targets this year. But he's seeing more valuable looks in that offense. After two games, his average after target is almost 16 yards. He's generated 12.3 expected PPR points per game compared to Concepcion's 9.6.

Now, just to be clear, Boston is outperforming that expectation by roughly five PPR points per game. He's not going to keep this up. If he continues to see this kind of usage. And my prospect evaluation work said that Casey Concepcion was the better prospect. But we can't ignore a couple of things happening in Cleveland. Number one, the Browns are likely going to be playing from behind this season, even with what happened in week two.