1120: Bold Predictions

**JJ Zachariason** (0:02)
This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.
What's up everyone, it's JJ Zachariason, and in this episode 1120 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in.
Bold prediction pieces are really popular. People love consuming them, because it allows us, especially an analyst like myself, to really stop thinking in range of outcomes. I can just think about a single outcome. The problem I've always had with bold predictions content though, is that they're often not totally based in reality. So with this episode each year, and with the newsletter that I send out, I attempt to explain the why. I genuinely think that all the predictions that I talk about are very possible. Maybe that means some of them aren't quite as hot takey as you'll see elsewhere. But I do think just because it's bold predictions content, doesn't mean that we can't learn something. So on today's show, I'm bringing you 10 bold predictions for this upcoming fantasy football season. Realistic bold predictions. Bold predictions that I genuinely think could come true. Of course, only some of them are going to hit. I'm usually happy if like five or six of them do. But that doesn't mean that they aren't possible. Now I've got five additional predictions that I'm sending out in the late round newsletter on Wednesday. So make sure you subscribe there. You can head to lateround.com, click newsletter and subscribe for absolutely free. There's also the late round draft guide that you can check out while you're there. But without further ado, let's get the bold prediction number one.
Terry McLaurin and Stefan Diggs will both finish as top 24 wide receivers. This one's bold because according to Fantasy Pro's consensus average draft position, neither player is being drafted inside the top 24 at the position. And Stefan Diggs is well outside the top 24 These guys are also teammates and that could limit their individual ceilings. But here's why this could happen. Teammates finishing together as wide receiver 2s in Fantasy is not as uncommon as you might think. Since 2011, we've averaged about 4.5 teammate pairings finishing in the top 24 together per year. And this year, one of them could be Washington. Obviously, we like Dallas, we like Cincinnati, but why not Washington? I'm just not convinced that these two older wide receivers are cooked. Terry McLoran is coming off a season where he posted the best per-route run numbers of his entire career. Stefan Diggs last year, he ranked 10th in yards per outrun, and his targets per outrun rate ranked in the 90th percentile. Look, I really do like Antonio Williams, and I'm excited for what he might be able to do in the NFL. But overall, this Washington offense lacks pass-catching firepower. And with McLoran stretching the field, Stefan Diggs playing more underneath, a high percentage of the team's targets could just be funneled to these two wide receivers. And if this David Blau offense is better than advertised, this prediction can definitely come true.
Both Kenneth Walker and Chase Brown will outscore Jonathan Taylor. This one's bold because Taylor's locked in as a first-round pick, Walker and Brown, they're more second-rounders. Here's why this can happen though. The Colts were so good to start last season. They were first in the NFL in points per drive, first in drives ending in touchdowns, and first by a wide margin in percentage of touchdowns that came via the ground through week 10
It was the perfect storm for Jonathan Taylor. Through 10 weeks, the Colts had run just 11% of their offensive plays while trailing by seven or more points. That was the second lowest rate in the league. That's just tough production to bank on year over year, and Jonathan Taylor, he needs those positive scripts to really hit a massive ceiling. That's what we've seen historically. I talked about this on the Late-Round Podcast with Rich Rebar not long ago, but Taylor's had some of the most extreme win-loss splits of any running back in fantasy football. Even last year, during those first 10 games, he averaged 31.5 PPR points per game in wins. That fell to just over 11 points per game in their two losses. Over the last three years, Taylor's averaged 13.7 PPR points per game in losses. He's averaged 11 more points per game in wins. So what I'm basically saying here is that Taylor's profile is a little bit more fragile than the market's making it seem. Indianapolis' current win total is 7.5. Their top-wide receiver has not been healthy, and their quarterback is coming off an Achilles injury.
Meanwhile, Chase Brown averaged 21 PPR points per game last year with Joe Burrow. He's been one of the best pass catching backs in football over the last couple of years. Kenneth Walker is moving to a Chiefs team that faced the fewest stack boxes in football a year ago, and even with Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco, they were top ten in success rate. Just a slight bump in receiving usage for Kenneth Walker could take him to the moon in fantasy football. All three of these backs should be drafted high, but if the Colts take a step back offensively this year, it's not that crazy to think that both Chase Brown and Kenneth Walker could outscore Jonathan Taylor.