1116: Mailbag - Breece Hall's Value, Ambiguous Backfields, and More

**JJ Zachariason** (0:02)
This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.
What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1116 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. Before getting to the mailbag questions this week, I just want to send another reminder to check out the Late-Round Draft Guide. There's over 270 pages of content that includes game theory, strategy, ways to spot breakouts and busts, players to target, players to avoid, and more. You get cheat sheets with the guide, and the guide is updated every week, and it goes directly to your email inbox when the guide is updated. You can learn more about it over on lateraound.com.
The first question this week is from Ranchdressing in the Members Hub. It says, Hi, JJ and crew. I was looking at the rankings, and one thing that stood out was Breece Hall being ranked a number of spots ahead of current ADP. He seems like a very risky running back, given his past usage as well as the offense he plays in. He could be a good value where he's currently going, but I have a hard time clicking his name due to the factors listed above. Out of the top 14 running backs, he's got the biggest delta. I would love your insight on him and what you are seeing. Thanks for everything you do.
Yeah, I mean, look, part of that is because I have him ranked as the RB14, and when you talk about early-round running backs, there's just less volatility with the rankings in general. So with him being at the end of that range, there's more of a chance that there's differentiation versus ADP. No different than how a late-round pick might be 20 running back spots higher than the market. That's just what happens as you get deeper into the draft. But that's beside the point.
I've contemplated putting Breece Hall as a player to target in the draft guide. The reason I haven't is because of where my tears sit with him, and the fact that I like so many wide receivers in that range. Even I'm not super overweight on Hall because of that. But yeah, I do think Breece Hall is at least an interesting option. First off, I do agree that the situation in New York is generally risky. Geno Smith, Frank Reich, the last time we saw these guys, it was bad.
With that being said, we have a pretty stable backbone with Hall himself. He saw 77% running back rush share last season to go along with a 10.7% target share. He's one of six players that hit a 70% running back rush share and a 10% target share last year. The other five were CMC, Jonathan Taylor, Ashton Genti, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs. The biggest problem for Hall was that the offense was complete garbage. The Jets were 29th in total yards last year, 30th in total touchdowns, 27th in plays run, and 29th in yards per play.
The thesis here is that they could easily be better offensively with Geno Smith under center. Of course, I'm not trying to predict greatness from Geno Smith. Look at what we saw last season. But I do think they're going to be better. In the Jets offensive line, it's not a huge problem for them at this point. This is also just where we're at with the running back landscape. After Derrick Henry, Devon Aitchey, and Kenneth Walker, whoever that RB12 is in your draft, after that player's off the board, there's a pretty big gap to the RB13.
Which by the way, I think I said RB14 for Breece Hall earlier. I actually have him at RB13.
And maybe you want to throw Kyron Williams in there, or Kam Skadabu in there, maybe even Josh Jacobs. But literally all of those running backs come with question marks.
Hall has offensive situation questions, though there was that report this past week, which was nice to see, that said Breece Hall is being treated as the bell cowl. Although to be fair, he kind of was treated that way last year. I just think that he has room to see more work as a pass catcher, because he's a very good pass catcher. But then Jeremiah Love, what's that backfield split really going to look like? Javontae Williams was super inefficient as a receiver. Kyron Williams has Blake Corum to deal with. Kam Skadabu has the injury, though I am pretty high on him. Josh Jacobs is a healthy Marshawn Lloyd now. He has a lot of seasons with a lot of touches. And he has off-the-field stuff too.
So it's really just me trying to bring all of that together and say, hey, I think Breece Hall is extremely talented and really good at the position. And we've seen evidence of him being a true three-down bell cow back. His situation might be a little bit better this year, so I'll rank him in that RB 13 spot. Do I feel unbelievably confident? No, not necessarily. Like I said, I think there's a drop-off to him. And that's why I haven't made him a player to target. I just don't want to force it. But I do think that he is a very good running back, and that's why I have him ranked there.