1112: Early-Season Schedule Analysis

**JJ Zachariason** (0:02)
This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.
What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 11, 12 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. To me, fantasy football is about finding small edges that come together and add up to become a big edge. We look at certain metrics. We have a specific process. We do things to give us an edge over our competition. And one of those things, albeit not the most important thing in the world, is schedule analysis. It's looking at who our players might be facing because we know that matchups are not irrelevant.
I do this episode every year on early season schedule analysis. Like I said, it's not the end all. But I focus on the early season stuff because number one, teams are healthy. We have some idea as to what defenses are going to look like. Whereas if we did this before the season, looking at like week 15 or 16, we might have some idea, but defenses are going to look a lot different personnel wise. Because injuries happen and things change. But number two, we want to have confidence in the players that we draft, and we want to turn a profit immediately. If your first round pick has a tough early season schedule, and if he struggles, even if you know those matchups were tough, you're still going to have some doubts.
You ideally want to win and win right away. Not only in the win-loss column, but you want your players to increase in value, so you can feel more comfortable with what you have on your team. And in more active leagues, you can then trade them for a profit.
So the idea with the analysis that I'm about to get to, is that it shouldn't be the sole decision maker for you. But as a tiebreaker, as something to at least keep in mind as you draft players knowing you might need some backup if the player has a tough schedule, I think it could be useful for that. Actually, I know it can because it has in the past. Now before getting to that analysis, just as a reminder, check out the Late-Round Draft Guide. It's well over 270 pages of content where I go through game theory, I explain how to spot breakouts and busts, there's a section on players to target and avoid, there's cheat sheets and so much more. You can order it right now on lateround.com. Or, you can become an all-access member. If you're an all-access member, you get access to not only the draft guide, but the prospect guide, too, alongside all the member perks like Discord access, rankings and tiers, and more. You can learn more about everything again over on lateround.com.
I've said before on the show that Malik Willis is the easiest pick to make in season-long leagues this year. Not necessarily best ball, but season-long, yes. Because if he's terrible and we see that he's terrible, you can make a move and start streaming as your worst-case scenario. Or you just draft Malik Willis in another quarterback this year to increase your odds with hitting on one of them. Maybe pair him with a more stable piece like Brock Purdy or something. Willis showed off some upside in a small sample in Green Bay, but this episode, it's not about digging into why you should be into him. I'm bringing him up because there's something a little extra to get excited about. Miami has a really favorable schedule to open up the season. Willis could actually get off to a hot start. Miami opens the season against the Raiders, then they get the 49ers, Chiefs, Vikings, Bengals, a bi-week, and then the Jets. Now, I'll be referencing the secondary rankings on today's show from Sharp Football Analysis, just to have something objective to share with you guys. And according to those rankings, five of those six opponents rank 23rd or worse in past defense entering the year. The one team who ranks higher than that is Minnesota. Minnesota ranks 16th according to those rankings. That means Miami doesn't have a super tough opponent in terms of past defense across their first six games. And we know Miami, they might lean run heavy. But like I said, in that stretch of games, they get the 49ers, the Chiefs, and the Bengals. Those are games where they might be forced to throw the ball a little bit more. We don't know what this past catching room is going to look like for the Dolphins. But I do think that this should make you feel a little bit more comfortable in drafting Malik Willis this year. We know the upside is present, and there's not that much in the way in terms of schedule.