1095: Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings

**JJ Zachariason** (0:02)
This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.
What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1095 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. The NFL Draft starts on Thursday, and I, like you, could not be more excited. Over the last few months, I've been deep diving into these prospect profiles. Some of you have read The Prospect Guide, some of you have listened to the episodes of this show that have focused on the draft, and I've done more podcast appearances than I probably should have done. I'm ready to find out where these players are going to start their careers. As a little primer, I like to go over the top of my rankings for single quarterback leagues heading into the draft, where I'm at right now with things. Because not only have those rankings changed just a little bit since The Prospect Guide launched, albeit not by much, but it'll give you a good idea of where I stand pre-draft. You can compare that to post-draft, to show you how I'm sort of thinking about landing spot and how I let landing spot influence things.
Next week's episode is going to focus on more immediate reactions to the draft, but the one in a couple of weeks will be the post-draft rookie rankings. Of course, though, you can get my rankings immediately when the draft is over via The Late-Round Prospect Guide. That guide's available right now on lateround.com, and it features 170 pages of model talk, player profiles, and more. An updated version will be e-mailed to your inbox just a couple of hours after the draft ends on Saturday. So if you purchase now, you can get that pre-draft version, save that down, and then also get the post-draft version of that guide on Saturday. That's all found on lateround.com. Now let's talk about where I have things ranked just before this draft starts.
I'll be doing today's show by tier, and there's a player, Jeremiah Love, who's simply just in a tier of his own in this class, even in Superflex leagues. This is one of those don't overthink it kind of players. Even if he gets a rough landing spot versus one of the wide receivers getting a good one.
Love is looking like he's going to get top 10 draft capital, potentially top five. But even if it's just top half of the first round, he's in good company. Since 2011, which is when the ZAP model dates back to, we've had 10 top half of the first round running back selections. Trent Richardson, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley, Bijon Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, and Ashton Gentey. The only player who didn't hit 17 or more PPR points per game in one of his first three seasons, on that list has been Gentey. He's only played one year in the league though.
When teams spend up at running back, two things are being told to us. Number one, the player is likely extremely talented. Number two, the player is likely going to be fed. Teams don't want that pick to look bad, and coaching staffs, they can completely dictate the workload that they give to these running backs. But it's not like Love is talentless. His receiving profile within the context of the ZAP model, it's above average to really good. His best season in pro rated reception share, it's solid enough in the 65th percentile. His adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt, it's in the 83rd percentile. That's adjusted for strength of opponent and age, and it looks at his best season within that statistic. And in his adjusted yards per team play, total yards, 94th percentile. Meanwhile, according to PFF, you're looking at an 88th percentile avoided tackles per attempt, and 96th percentile yards after contact per attempt rate. He can truly do it all.
With his draft capital boosting him, he'll almost definitely be looked at as a legendary performer in the ZAP model. He's your 101
Things get really interesting after Jeremiah Love. In Superflex, you could argue Fernando Mendoza at the 102 spot. And I'd have him in that tier pre-draft. We're talking single quarterback rankings though today, but I at least want to shout that out.
Right now, pre-draft, I have this next tier as Jordan Tyson, Carnell Tate, and Mackay Lemon for all very different reasons. Tyson is my wide receiver one, and he'll likely be my wide receiver one post draft. The model objectively likes Tyson more than the other two guys pre-draft. That's unlikely to change post draft, and it's because his breakout score, which is age and schedule adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt, it's a 99th percentile number.