1087: Free Agency Fallout

**JJ Zachariason** (0:02)
This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.
What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1087 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. The Late-Round Prospect Guide is done. It's finished, at least the pre-draft version is. If you pre-ordered the guide, a link to download that guide is now in your inbox. If you didn't, you can still get the pre-draft version by heading to lateraound.com. It's just $5 more than it was last week. Now, if you buy the guide or if you bought the guide, you'll get access to the post-draft version, which will hit your inbox the day the NFL draft ends. And that'll have all new player blurbs and write-ups and zap scores. And that's for running back wide receiver and tight end prospects. The guide is over 170 pages long. It's got player profiles for those positions. There's zap scores. You learn what goes into the models. There are year two profile write-ups, rankings, and more. Again, you can get it yourself and read it immediately over on lateraound.com. Today's episode of the show, though, it's a straightforward one. You heard some of my thoughts on the free agency period on last week's perspectives episode, but this is a little bit more of a deep dive and not a general conversation like the one that I had with Derrick Brown. I'm going to talk through a ton of moves that we saw go down last week, and I'll do my best to provide some early fantasy takes. Let's dive in. I think Kenneth Walker going to the Chiefs is probably the biggest move of the free agency period from a fantasy perspective. I haven't sat down and done my projections for the 2026 season, but I wouldn't be surprised if Walker looks like an RB1 in fantasy football entering next season. Brandon Gadula sent a newsletter out last week that I'm going to reference throughout today's show. But in it, he noted that while Kansas City was 25th in rushing yards per game last year, they were 7th in EPA per rush, and they were 8th in success rate. They were also 12th in rushing yards before contact per attempt. Where things went south for them was in the explosive runs department. Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt combined for one run of 20 or more yards last year. That's on over 280 carries. Their rate of gaining 10 or more yards was 8.5% and 6.1%. Those were both well below average numbers when compared to other running backs with 50 or more carries. And that includes Kenneth Walker, who gained 10 or more yards at a near 15% rate. That was a fringe top 5 number in the league. I've said this for years on the show now, but Walker's a big play home run hitting running back. He often finishes seasons with more mediocre success rates, but he can break these big plays that really can change games. And that's why this fit is so interesting to me. Because despite Kareem Hunt just clearly not being a studly running back, he was fourth last year in success rate according to next-gen stats. The line, the situation, the system, it's clearly helping things here. Now, the obvious problem for Walker in Seattle was that he had a lot of empty calorie usage. He was being used between the 20s, not that much as a pass catcher, and not as much as the goal line. I'd anticipate him at least being the primary goal line back now. That's huge. And with the receiving stuff, look, do I think Walker is going to step into a 14-15% target share role? No, he's too good on the ground for them to deploy him that way. Not many running backs get to that point of seeing that much usage in their backfield. And he's not an elite pass catcher. He's good, but he's not elite. And I do think that he's good, even if that hasn't been the case on the volume front in three of his four years in the league. It's a little scary that he's been under that 8% target share mark in three of four seasons. But if it makes you feel any better, and I think it should, he's been above 1.3 yards per outrun in three of those seasons. His only inefficient receiving season happened when he was a rookie. Like, I think there's a serious chance that we see a double-digit percentage target share with goal line work for Kenneth Walker in 2026 And in that Kansas City offense, that can go a long way. Meanwhile, the result of Walker leaving Seattle, is that they've got a pretty open backfield now to start the 2026 season, right now. Zach Charbonneau is recovering from an ACL. He almost definitely won't be ready to start the year. The Seahawks signed Emmanuel Wilson from the Packers, and they seem to like what they have in George Helani. We're likely going to see them invest in running back in the draft. That's what I'd imagine they do. But this running back class is not super strong. So I'm actually not against using those running backs as sort of like throw-in pieces in trades right now, just to see how this backfield unfolds. Because it might unfold in a way that we don't expect. Because right now, things are pretty ambiguous.