1085: Mailbag - Rome Odunze's Ceiling, Wide Receiver 40 Times, and More

**JJ Zachariason** (0:02)
This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.
What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 1085 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. Before I get to the mailbag questions today, I just want to send another reminder that The Late-Round Prospect Guide is currently available for pre-order, and it's better than ever. This year's guide includes an outline of what goes into the models, prospect profiles for every running back wide receiver and tight end who went to the combine, over 30 year two profile write-ups, there's rankings and more. It'll launch in mid-March, so pre-order it now at $14.99. That's going to rise to $19.99 in less than two weeks when it launches. You can find out more over on lateraound.com.
The first mailbag question this week says, Hey JJ, thanks for all the great work you do. Thanks. This draft cycle, I've heard several fantasy analysts say something to the effect of, Malachi fields as my wide receiver X, but he'll probably get moved up after the draft. Basically, no one likes him analytically as a prospect, but everyone agrees that the NFL will probably draft him highly, so he'll have to get moved up prospect boards. What I'm wondering is, at what point do we just ignore outlier draft capital? Is there a point when a player is so overdrafted compared to their analytical profile that it's just more misleading to consider that draft capital? Anecdotally, it feels there are some types of players we always get burned by, especially a wide receiver, Meekle Hardman, Jaylen Rager, etc. Wondering if you've looked into this before, or have any data that would be interesting to share. Thanks, Eric. Well, first off, clearly we're gonna be burned by bad profiles more than good profiles, because bad profiles, they're bad for a reason. When a player doesn't have good age-adjusted production, he's less likely to succeed in the NFL. But I think what's difficult with a question like this is that not every player has the same expectation, right? Like, you're talking about Malachi Fields and fading him. I have no problem with that general idea. I think Fields has a lot of glaring red flags to his profile. But we're not drafting Fields in the same spot as Jordan Tyson. We're drafting Fields amongst other players with red flags to their profiles. Like right now over on Keep Trade Cut, you have Zach Branch going ahead of Fields at wide receiver. You have Chris Brazel and Chris Bell going right after him. Which all three of those guys have something you can point out as being negative to their profile. Like a lot of things. It's a second-round rookie pick. Now, to your question of, is there a point when a player is so over-drafted compared to their analytical profile that it's just more misleading to consider that draft capital? I don't know if there's a point in which that's the case, but this is exactly why having a model can be so helpful. It allows you to know how to balance all of this. Now I'm not trying to say that you have to go buy the guide or you have to build a model on your own. I'm just being truthful. It weighs draft capital, but then also weighs in the crappy production profile. And if it's crappy enough, it'll say, hey, don't draft this guy. This guy is probably overvalued. But you also have to remember that there's still subjectivity involved in what you consider to be a bad production profile and what someone else might consider to be a bad one. Even if you're both looking at things analytically, I measure things differently than someone else does. There's not just one way to do this. So my overall stance here is the following, just to be super straightforward. Number one, if people are saying that, if they're saying they're gonna rank him high post draft, I get it to a degree because you have to keep an open mind. But if you're anchoring to projected draft capital, things shouldn't change that much, especially because the difference between certain spots on day two isn't as significant as people think. Number two, you can't ignore cost in these situations. I'll draft bad players and rookie drafts if the cost is right, or players where I question how good they are. Although admittedly, I do that a lot more at running back than I do wide receiver. Number three, and probably the most important one, if you feel off about a player, don't draft that player. Seriously, rookie drafts are not some exact science. Get your guys. You don't need to play the ADP game like you do in best ball or even a regular redraft league. If there's something that really concerns you about a player, don't draft that player. You have my permission. I play in enough dynasty leagues where I can keep an open mind. But when you hear me say, I'm going to be lower than the market on this player, it generally means that if you're in one league, chances are you shouldn't be targeting that player in most leagues, unless the cost is undeniable. So don't overthink this. But if you need me to say this, I will, because I firmly believe it. Don't let draft capital dictate everything.