1078: Mailbag - Free Agent Running Backs, Slot Receivers, and More

**JJ Zachariason** (0:11)
What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason, and this is episode 1078 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
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The first one's from Twitter. It's from at rhcpvikings. It says, thoughts on Trevion Henderson vs. Ramandre Stevenson going into next year? Henderson played, I think, like four snaps Sunday? So here I am, not even in the fantasy season anymore, still talking about this Patriots backfield. What a world. But in all seriousness, this is a really, really valid question. I've seen a lot of wild narratives out there on social media this week already about that backfield. Specifically, people just saying that Ramandre Stevenson has been significantly better than Trevion Henderson all season long. And now Henderson is just a boomer bust player. I just think there's an insane amount of recency bias going on with a take like that. Because Ramandre Stevenson really has been good over the last month or so. Genuinely, objectively, but season long numbers don't paint this picture of like Stevenson being so far and away the better running back in that backfield. In fact, you guys probably remember, but back in like week 13 or so, Henderson was one who analytically looked so much better than Ramandre Stevenson. But when you combine regular and postseason numbers, according to next gen stats, Henderson had a better EPA per rush than Stevenson this year. That's not amazingly surprising because Henderson showed off that big play ability. An EPA per rush is going to favor big play running backs, which is fine, that's just part of the metric. And Stevenson also dealt with fumbles early on. So the next stat to look at is success rate. Success rate is more binary. It doesn't favor players who just make those big plays and sort of warp their statistics. So it's sort of discounting those extra yards and expected points that a player like Henderson might generate. There was a tweet that I saw where someone said like, Ramondre Stevenson is just so much more successful each rush. Henderson is more boomer bust. Data doesn't agree with that at all. Across the season, both regular and postseason, Henderson has had a 40% success rate to Stevenson's 37%. And to be clear, both players were within 4 percentage points of each other when it came to percentage of inside rushes and stack boxes faced. What's interesting is that Stevenson is actually boosting both of his numbers in EPA per rush and success rate with what he's done in the postseason, which again, I said at the top, recency bias. I think a lot of people are seeing him play well, seeing him play well in a national stage, and drawing conclusions based on that. Now Stevenson's been better than Henderson within a metric like rushing yards over expected per rush. Because Henderson's expected yards per carry is just simply higher than Stevenson's. I don't want you to walk away from this show thinking that I believe Travion Henderson has been better than Ramondre Stevenson. I'm merely pointing out that this is not some clear-cut obvious case, where in all circumstances, Ramondre Stevenson has been better, because earlier this season, he was not. I think what we're seeing right now is that he's the veteran and he's more reliable, especially in past pro, especially in these big moments. I even tweeted during the AFC Championship Game, and I said that, quote, talked about this on the podcast on Friday, but Ramondre Stevenson really stepped up the final month or so of the season. And I took my L, don't worry, has been a totally different inspired player. This current environment is why they need him. And I sent that tweet during that AFC Championship Game. The snow was coming down, the weather wasn't very good, they needed that bruiser, they needed Ramondre Stevenson. Stevenson wins in different ways than Henderson does. We've talked about that, we've known about that all year. I still to this day don't think that they're using Henderson optimally, but that's for another discussion. The fact is, New England's been in some games as postseason in particular where they've needed that bruiser. And that's more Ramondre Stevenson style than Treveon Henderson's. They've seen positive game scripts. They've faced offenses that haven't been lighting up the scoreboard. Their defense is playing really well. All of that is a formula for a player like Stevenson, not Henderson. I think that combined with the potential shoulder injury for Henderson, that's why we saw so much Stevenson in that game against Denver. Now, what this looks like beyond this season is kind of anyone's guess, because running back usage, it comes down to a coaching decision. You guys are probably so sick of me saying that, but it's true. Running backs like Henderson tend to progress and see more work. For him, I think that will come in the form of receiving, especially. But we can't deny a couple of things here. Number one, Ramondre Stevenson is very likely going to be there in 2026 It looks like his contract has an out, but that out is in 2027 And his play really does mesh well with Treveon Henderson. That means I'm still expecting someone of a decent split in the 2026 season. This run that New England's on currently only reinforces that point, in my opinion. So I think things would look a lot different for this backfield if Stevenson didn't turn it up during the final month of the year, and if New England didn't go on this playoff run, where they've been forced a little bit to lean on that bigger running back. But that's just the reality of what happened. That's where we're at. And it's probably going to hurt Treveon Henderson, at least in the short term, at least in 2026