1072: Week 16 Sleepers

**JJ Zachariason** (0:02)
This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.
What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1072 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. Last week's Sleeper Show wasn't that terrible. It was honestly the best quarterback week of the season. In terms of standard fantasy points, Brock Purdy had 26, Jackson Dart 22, Trevor Lawrence 44, CJ Stroud 23, and JJ McCarthy 24 Even Aaron Rodgers was usable. It doesn't get much better than that. Tight end was pretty good too. Harold Fanon had 12 PPR points, Dalton Schultz scored almost 22, and Darren Waller posted almost 26 And Chicago's defense? Great streaming choice. So the 1-Z positions were great. The running backs and wide receivers? Not so much. On the flip side, Chuba Hubbard, Kyle Menungai, Chim Ray, DK, Andre Josivache, and my preferred choice of Devon Singletary over Tyrone Tracy were all misses. Tajay Spears didn't get a ton of work either in a plus matchup for his receiving skill set. And then San Francisco, that defense that he faced, and Dallas, they were bad streaming defenses. It was hit or miss as usual, but there were some big hits in there. This is actually the last week for this Sleeper show because of the holiday, so I'm looking to finish strong. I'll still have all my rankings and such next week on Patreon, but for this show, this is the last one. Let's end things on a high note.
We'll kick things out by looking at players rostered in 50% to 80% of Yahoo! Leagues, and somehow, Jacoby Burset, maybe because he faced the Texans last week, he's 66% rostered right now, despite the fact that he's quite literally finished as a top 12 quarterback every single start of this season. Not only is Burset a good play because of that, but he gets a Falcons team that ranks 15th middle of the road and adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks. Atlanta's also been worse against quarterbacks of late, having given up 15 or more standard fantasy points and 7 of their last 8 So Burset's a strong option. CJ Stroud's another one. I do worry about the Texans leaning on the run in this game against Vegas, but Houston, they have a really good 26-point implied team total. Stroud's coming off a game that has similar potential game script and he posted 23 fantasy points. I'm not in love with him this week, but I do think that team total can carry him. At running back, I'm going to start with Chuba Hubbard. I know Rico Dowdell was sort of the more obvious selection for the Panthers backfield last week, and Hubbard ended up with just eight carries and one target. But Chuba still played 43% of Carolina Snaps, he had a 45% route share. He's been playing their long down and distance snaps. Now I'd anticipate a little bit more passing from Carolina in this game against Tampa Bay. That probably favors Chuba a little bit more than Rico Dowdell, not that I would play him over Dowdell straight up. But teams against Tampa Bay generally see their pass rates increase by five percentage points, and the Bucs have just been bad defensively. We saw that last week against Atlanta. They now rank 11th worst in adjusted points allowed to running backs. I wouldn't love to rely on Hubbard, but as a sleeper, I can see a path. Jordan Mason's a little bit of a deeper play, but just like Chuba Hubbard, I can see a path with Mason too. Don't expect volume through the air, but Mason's seen 11 in 10 rush attempts over his last two games. Now the Vikings get the Giants, and they're sitting as favorites, which means there's a chance they get ahead in that game, and they rely on their bruiser. And the Giants are the second best matchup for running backs this year by adjusted points allowed. They've allowed 30 rushing yards per game this year over expected to running backs. That's the second highest mark in the league. So like Hubbard, I prefer Mason's backfield teammate Aaron Jones, but there's at least some potential here. Kamani Vidal is playing more snaps than Amari and Hampton. And while Hampton did get more work on the ground than him last week, Vidal still saw a 44% running back rush air. The Chargers get the Cowboys this week, and yes, Dallas has been better against the run since trading for Quinn and Williams. But Williams is also in concussion protocol. I think even if he goes, it's a pretty high scoring environment where Vidal is going to find the field. Especially if there's a trailing game script, because they trust him more in pass pro. So I think he's in okay play if you're desperate. Kenneth Gainwell is the last running back in this tier to call out, and I don't love this matchup against Detroit. They're the third worst matchup for running backs by adjusted points allowed, and within this game, what's kind of interesting, Detroit's fourth lowest and adjusted target share allowed to running backs. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh ranks second in the NFL in running back target share. So the matchup is not good on paper, but Gainwell has now had an RB-1 performance in PPR leagues in four of his last five games, for real. He's averaging a target share per game rate of almost 22% over his last five. That kind of usage, especially in PPR formats, it's just hard to ignore. At wide receiver, I don't mind Jordan Addison. The Giants are a top half matchup for wide receivers by adjusted points allowed, and while Addison only saw two targets last week in an awesome matchup, he did see target shares of 35% and 30% in the two weeks prior. There's definitely volatility here, but that's to be expected at this point with these non-elite wide receivers. The matchup is at least strong, and we've seen him with high target share games. The matchup that Addison couldn't take advantage of last week, Dallas, that's one that Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston, they're going to get this week. Now, obviously, if Johnston can't go again, then I'd be in on Allen. I think Allen is fine regardless. He's seen target shares of 25%, 24%, 13%, and 27% over his last four games. He does take a decent hit if QJ is back, because QJ will push Allen more into the slot. This past week, Allen only played 25% of his snaps from the slot. That was a season low. And Dallas, they've been bad against perimeter wide receivers. They're the best matchup on paper for wide receivers, and that's why these guys should be on your radar.