1068: Week 15 Sleepers

**JJ Zachariason** (0:02)
This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.
What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1068 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. Week 14 Sleeper Show, it wasn't the best. There were some hits in there like Christian Watson, Tyler Shuck, Blake Quorum, and Harold Fannon. Trevor Lawrence and Sam Darnold, they were both usable. Jacoby Myers got it done. Devin Neal did too. And Colby Parkinson and Dalton Kincaid both found the end zone. But the Broncos receivers weren't anything special. Chris Rodriguez was pretty mid. Adonai Mitchell and Tyrod Taylor busted, though Tyrod was hurt. And the defensive streamers were pretty bad last week outside of Miami. Miami was great. Now that it's the playoffs, more is at stake. So hopefully I can get you more Ws than Ls this week. With that being said, let's get to week 15
This first tier of players consists of guys rostered in 50% to 80% of Yahoo! League, so they're shallower sleepers. Brock Purdy is still under that 80% mark, and I'm not entirely sure as to why. I'd imagine this dude was bi-week last week, and he hasn't been like amazing in fantasy football. But he's not a bad play this week. The 49ers have a 28.5 point implied team total against Tennessee. That's the second highest in this week's slate. You might be worried about the 49ers not having to throw the ball as much. That's fair. Teams against Tennessee tend to see their pass rate drop by 2.5% this year. But the Titans are still the 12th best matchup by adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks, and as I always say, in order to get to garbage time, in order to get that lead, the quarterback is likely going to play a role. That high of a team total makes Brock Purdy a relevant starter. Jackson Dart's another one in this tier. Now, I will say I'm a little bit concerned about Dart's mobility. He didn't have a single design rush attempt the last time we saw the Giants. That was the first time that it happened all year as a starter. And we all know why it probably happened. His concussion. But the Giants do get the commanders this week, and Washington has been the third best matchup for quarterbacks this year by Adjusted Fantasy Points allowed. New York also has a healthy 24.5 point implied team total. So I think Jackson Dart is fine. And then Trevor Lawrence is the last one in this tier. The Jags also have a good implied team total at 26.5 points against the Jets, and New York has been an average to above average opponent this year for quarterbacks. Now, they have been better of late, but half of the quarterbacks that they've faced since Saas Gardner was traded, they've posted top 10 numbers. Just given the team total and given the trend that I talked about on this week's 10 trends episode about Trevor Lawrence and how well he's played since September, I think he's fine. At running back, Woody Marks is still at the 80% mark at the time of this recording. I love him this week. The Texans are favorites against the Cardinals. They have a 26 point implied team total. Arizona is the 6th best matchup for running backs by adjusted points allowed this year. And they're coming off a game where both Blake Corum and Kyron Williams were top 10 options. The week prior, Bucky Irving RB 15 The week before that, Travis Etienne RB 7 The week before that, Christian McCaffrey was the RB 1 Those are a lot of good running backs. Don't get me wrong. And Woody Marks isn't in that kind of tier. But each back still played above expected. With Nick Chubb banged up, Marks could see a lot of work. He had a 93% running back rush air last week. If he comes close to that against Arizona, he should have a nice day. Chuba Hubbard hit a 49% running back rush air the last time we saw Carolina. He was the better back between himself and Rico Dowdle. That was pre-buy. It was his highest share since week 8 Now, we probably are going to see a split backfield again here in week 15 But Carolina is in a spot where both running backs are in play. They get the Saints, and teams against New Orleans have seen their biggest decline in pass rate over expected compared to any other team in football. Team pass rates usually drop by 7 percentage points when they face New Orleans. And this is a team, the Panthers, that have the second lowest pass rate over expected in the entire NFL. So I'm expecting a lot of running from the Panthers this week. That should benefit Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle, but he's not sleeper eligible. In that same game as Devon Neal, Neal's been getting it done without Alvin Kamara in the mix. He's had a running back rush share of 70%, 74%, and 83% over his last three games. He's averaging a respectable 12.1 PPR points per game in those contests. Now the Saints get a Panthers team that ranks the top half opponent for running backs by adjusted points allowed. So I think Neal is an okay play. And then lastly is Kyle Menunggai. Now I know this one might sound a little bit weird because Cleveland's a bottom 10 matchup for running backs this year by adjusted fantasy points allowed. But the Browns have not been great at stopping running backs of late. Tony Pollard last week, RB2. The week before, we had CMC as a top 12 option. Ashton Gentian week 12, RB4. Derrick Henry, the RB8 right before that. And then in week 10, since it's all since their buy, in week 10, Breeze Hall was the RB7. The Bears are favorites, and Menunggai has been over the 50% running back rush air mark in three straight games. I don't think he's a terrible play at all. Wondell Robinson is still at 80% rostered, and I love him this week against Washington. Washington's allowed the 10th most adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers this year, and Robinson hasn't seen lower than a 31% target share in each of his last five games. But also, with Darius Slayton back and playing a full route share in week 13, Robinson went back to playing over 75% of his snaps out of the slot. That's big because Washington's given up top five numbers of slot receivers this year. They've allowed over four more PPR points per game to team slot receivers compared to the average team. Again, that's big for Wondell Robinson. There hasn't been much reason to be excited about Jordan Addison this year given the state of the Vikings offense. But if there's any week that he could be relevant, it's this one. The Vikings get the Cowboys, and Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers this year. It's the best matchup on paper for Jordan Addison, who runs frequently on the outside. He's also coming off of two games where he saw target shares of 34.5% and 30%. So I think this is a very interesting play. At tight end in this tier, we got to go to Harold Fanon, just because he's been crushing. Like I said earlier this week, no tight end has a higher target share than Fanon does over the last few weeks. Those are his games with Chador Sanders under center. In Cleveland this week, they get a reasonable matchup against Chicago. The Bears are the 13th best matchup on paper for tight ends by adjusted points allowed. And then the final player in this tier is Jawan Johnson. Carolina, his opponent, ranks as the 12th best matchup by adjusted points allowed, and Johnson has seen targeters of 27% and 22% over his last two games. I think there may be better streamers in the next tier, but Johnson should give you a good floor.