1067: 10 Trends for Week 15

**JJ Zachariason** (0:11)
What's up everyone, it's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1067 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. Before I get to the trends this week, I just want to send another reminder to subscribe to The Late-Round Newsletter. It's free, and you get my content straight to your inbox. Just head to lateround.com, click newsletter, and sign up. It just takes a couple of seconds. Now let's get to these trends.
The Steelers were pass heavier than usual against the Ravens on Sunday. I don't know if this is a sign of things to come, but it was kind of encouraging from a fantasy perspective. According to Fantasy Life's pass rate over expected data, Pittsburgh saw a plus 9% pass rate over expected against Baltimore. That was the highest of their season. And it was just the second time they've been over plus 3% this season. The Steelers finally really focused their offense around DK Metcalf. He saw a 38% target share, and his 14.8 average at the target was his highest since week 10 It was his second highest since week 7 I know Arthur Smith is an avid listener of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, so Artie, more of that please.
Dan Campbell started calling plays for the Lions in week 10 against Washington. Up until that point in time in their five previous games, Jameer Gibbs had peaked at a 10.7% target share. And during that stretch of five games, he hit a 10% target share just once. His target share per game rate was 8.6%. From week 1 through week 9, Gibbs had a target share per game rate of 13%. But since Campbell took over play calling duties, Gibbs has had a target share per game rate of 21%. Now this could be Sam Laporta related. Laporta went down with a season ending injury in week 10 That's exactly when this trend started. Regardless, Gibbs is seeing more work through the air. That's why he's been so dominant in fantasy football. It'll be interesting to see how it all translates to the fantasy playoffs though. Detroit, they get the Rams, Steelers and Vikings. Not only are those teams bottom 12 matchups for running backs by adjusted fantasy points allowed, they're also bottom 12 teams and adjusted target share allowed for running backs. Not that you're mentioning Jumeir Gibbs, of course.
Trevor Lawrence has been better in fantasy football than you realize. It was a brutal start to his season. But there may be some anchoring bias going on after he averaged his 12.3 standard fantasy points per game across his first four games. Since week five, Lawrence is averaging 18.6 points per game. He's essentially been a low-end QB1, high-end QB2 for most of the year. And with Jacoby Myers over the last four weeks, Lawrence hasn't had fewer than 15 points in the game. Now, I don't know if he's going to be super usable against the Jets, Broncos and Colts. That's his schedule in the fantasy playoffs. But I do think he's been a better option than people realize. The Cowboys traded for Quinnen Williams midseason. He's been playing with them since week 11 So it's been four weeks now. Across the Cowboys' first nine games, they allowed a little over 110 running back rushing yards per game. BACs were averaging 4.9 yards per carry against them. Over their last four games, all with Williams, Dallas has given up 55 running back rushing yards per game, so half of what they were allowing pre-trade. Their yards per carry allowed has gone from 4.9 to 4.1. Now, matchup is obviously going to play a role here, but the Cowboys over their last four games, they've faced Ashton Gentey, Saquon Barkley, the Chiefs running max, and then Jameer Gibbs and David Montgomery. The first two backs, they underperformed on the ground, and Gibbs did too by his standards. Dallas is becoming a beautiful pass funnel for fantasy purposes.
Speaking of the Cowboys, let's look at their offense for a second. Dallas' offense leads the league in yards per game, and the offense has by far the most passing yards per game. Dak Prescott on the year from a fantasy perspective, he's the QB 4, averaging 19.9 standard fantasy points per game. But here's what's really impressive about that. When looking at JJP allowed, Dallas' median opponent so far this season has been the fifth toughest in all of football. Which means that you could argue that from a fantasy football perspective, the Cowboys have had a bottom five schedule for quarterbacks in the league. And when you dig into it, you can see that. Dak has faced just four top half opponents this year by adjusted fantasy points a lot. The Giants, Bears, Lions and Commanders. Everyone else has ranked 18th or worse in terms of being a favorable opponent. And really, Dak hasn't performed significantly better or worse in those matchups. Now, in the fantasy playoffs, Dallas gets the Vikings, Chargers and Commanders. Those first two matchups are not a cakewalk, and that's why Dallas has one of the toughest playoff schedules for quarterbacks. But given this passing attack's performance in fantasy, I wouldn't be overly worried. And that commanders game in week 17, it could be a great one. Without Roma doonsay on Sunday, the Bears ran 12 personnel on 34% of their offensive snaps according to FantasyLife data. Across the rest of the season, that number has been 29%. So there was a little bit more 12 personnel. That's not that surprising when you have Colston Loveland and Cole Comed. The crazy thing though is that Comed actually ran one more route than Colston Loveland. Loveland was at just a 59% route share, and he hasn't been above a 70% route participation rate since Week 9 That's when Cole Comed was hurt. Now look, Loveland looks like the real deal. His secondary numbers, they're great for a rookie tight end. But until we see these route shares change, he's going to have to be super special in the efficiency front to be a higher end fantasy asset in the fantasy playoffs.