1064: Week 14 Sleepers

**JJ Zachariason** (0:02)
This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.
What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1064 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. I'm definitely not upset at the results of last week's Sleepers episode. There were definitely some misses. Dio Johnson only scored 5.9 PPR points. Jackson Dart could have been a lot better. Woody Marks was just under 8 PPR points. Kenneth Gainwell had just 6.5. Troy Franklin was an L. And Aranda Gadsden was too. But there were some really good callouts that I'm happy about. Jordan Love had a monster Thanksgiving. Kamani Vidal, he had a huge game. Quentin Johnson found the end zone. Christian Watson was awesome. Sean Booty, Jayden Higgins, Dalton Schultz, Harold Fanon, Blake Horum, Tyler Shuck, Brenton Strange, and Isaiah Likely, they all had usable performances. And then Adonai Mitchell, he really topped it off with 24 PPR points. It was a good week overall. I'm hoping we can do that over the final month of the season.
This first tier consists of players rostered in 50 to 80 percent of Yahoo! Leagues. We'll start with a couple of quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags, they have a solid 23 point implied team total against the Colts this week. Indianapolis has given up middle of the road numbers to the quarterbacks this year by adjusted points allowed, but at least Stoss Gardner, he has his calf injury that's listing him week to week. This really just comes down to a decent enough matchup combined with a solid implied team total. And Trevor Lawrence, honestly, he's not playing terrible football. He's been a top 12 quarterback option in each of his last three. Those are three games where Jacobi Meyers has been more involved in this offense. Since week five, Lawrence is averaging 18 and a half standard fantasy points per game. He's a solid choice this week. Sam Darnold is another one. Seattle is in a better spot this week than they were last week. They get Atlanta, they're in a dome, and they have a 26 point implied team total. And while Atlanta does rank 17th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, they're an average matchup on paper. They've given up top six performances to Bryce Young and Tyrod Taylor over the last three weeks. Sam Darnold should be fine. At running back in this tier, Devin Neal. I mentioned this on yesterday's 10 Trends episode, but Neal had really good peripherals and usage in week 13 He saw 74% of the team's running back rushes, he had a 9% target share, and he had 17 total touches. The Saints don't have a great total against Tampa Bay this week, but they never have a great total. But the Bucs have been a top half opponent for running backs this year by adjusted points allowed, so you could do worse. And then I'll give Jordan Mason a shout here too. Aaron Jones is day to day with a shoulder issue, so he could easily go this weekend, but the Vikings may lean a little bit more on Mason. They also get a Washington team that's given up the 7th most adjusted points to running backs this season, and they've been below average and adjusted rushing yards allowed to the position. There's not much receiving upside with Mason, especially if Aaron Jones plays, but he could find the end zone in a plus matchup. I really like the wide receivers in this tier. Jakobi Meyers is one. There's a chance that Parker Washington doesn't go this week. I don't know for sure at the time of this recording. And that could funnel more looks Jakobi Meyers way. As I say with Trevor Lawrence, the Jags get the Colts. Indianapolis has been a top 5 matchup for wide receivers this year by just the fantasy points allowed. And Meyers has seen target shares of 27%, 20% and 24% over his last three games. That's resulted in 11, 15 and 21 PPR points. He's a really underrated play this week. Christian Watson is another one. The Packers are getting healthier, but Watson continues to see good target shares in this offense. He's been at 33% and 36% over his last two games. He's averaging over 16 PPR points per game over his last three. And now he's facing a Bears team that's allowed the fifth most adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers this year. The volume alone should make Watson usable. Pat Bryant passed Troy Franklin last week in usage, and that could continue into week 14 and beyond. So spoiler alert, I was going to call out Pat Bryant later on in the show. But both Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin work this week because they get Vegas. That's a team that's allowed the tenth most adjusted points to wide receivers. And Denver, they have a solid 24 point implied team total. And then the last guy in this tier at wide receiver, Alec Pearce. The Colts get the Jags this week, and Jacksonville has been a below average team when it comes to adjusted points allowed to wide receivers. They're a below average matchup for wide outs. However, they've been specifically good against slot receivers. They've been well below average at guarding the perimeter. And Pearce plays on the outside at a very, very high rate. He's also seen seven targets per game over his last six. So on paper, things are looking good for him. At tight end in this tier, Kyle Pitts has seen target years of 25% and 26% over the last two weeks without Drake London. Now the Falcons get a Seattle team that's obviously great defensively, but they've allowed the six most adjusted points to tight ends this year. So I think Pitts is a pretty usable player in week 14 Now if Dalton Kincaid goes this week, you have to play him. Cincinnati has been historically bad against tight ends this year. They've given up 9.6 PPR points per game to team tight ends above expected this year. No other team is higher than 3.3 when looking at adjusted points allowed that way. So yeah, quite simply, if Dalton Kincaid is back, he should probably be in your lineup. And then finally, I'm going to keep up with this Jags theme. I'm going to go with Brenton Strange. The Colts are a top five matchup for tight ends by adjusted fantasy points allowed. Parker Washington could be sideline, and Strange now has back to back top 10 performances on about a 16.5% target share. Man, I'm really sorry about my voice, guys. I really wish I was healthy. I know how hard this is to listen to. Trust me. It's just as hard to do this podcast. But anyway, Brenton Strange, really good spot.