1055: 15 Transactions for Week 12

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason, and in this episode, 1055 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. Hey, before I get to the transactions this week, I just want to remind you, you can get this transaction list sent directly to your email inbox every single week. This show comes from the newsletter that I send out on Tuesday mornings, so if you want to reference something, or if you want any of the other content that's sent out via that newsletter, make sure you head to lateround.com right now and sign up for free. It takes two seconds, and it really is a big help to the late round fantasy football business. That's lateround.com. Now, let's get to this week's transactions. Add Emanuel Wilson. So Josh Jacobs suffered a knee injury in week 11 He's likely going to miss a little bit of time. Although fortunately, it seems like that injury, it's not a long term one. But if Jacobs is out, Emanuel Wilson is the running back that you want from this Packers backfield. After Josh Jacobs left that game against the Giants in week 11, Emanuel Wilson had every single running back rush for the Packers. He out snapped teammate Chris Brooks 39 to 5 according to PFF. Now, Brooks is likely going to be in the mix more without Josh Jacobs. But we could see some really nice production from Wilson as long as Jacobs is sidelined. Just do be aware that the Packers get the Vikings, Lions, and Broncos in 3 of their next 4 games, depending on how long Josh Jacobs is out. Though again, it sounds like it's more day to day rather than week to week. But that gives them one of the tougher running back schedules over the next month or so.

By Brock Purdy. So if you listened to last week's Mailbag episode, then this transaction isn't going to come as a surprise. Brock Purdy returned to action in week 11, and he looked like his typical self. The 49ers offense looked great against the Cardinals, and Purdy had 19.3 standard fantasy points. Now, I'm not sure that we'd consider this like a by high moment, but you're going to want a piece of this 49ers passing attack for the fantasy playoffs. Whether it's a quarterback, a wide receiver, or George Kittle. In week 15, they get the Titans in San Francisco. Tennessee, largely due to volume, they've been a completely average opponent for quarterbacks by just the fantasy points allowed. But you know the 49ers, they're going to have a high implied team total that week. After that, San Francisco is going to face the Colts in Indianapolis. They get a dome game. The Colts are a top half matchup for quarterbacks by just the fantasy points allowed this year. And then in the final week of the fantasy season, fantasy championship week, they get Chicago. And that's in San Francisco. Chicago is the third best matchup for quarterbacks right now by just the fantasy points allowed. None of those opponents should scare us off of this passing attack, especially because two of those three games are going to be in the Bay Area. So this transaction really could have just been for the passing attack in general. But if you want to capture that passing attack, obviously you're going to go with the quarterback. And that quarterback is Brock Purdy.

Add Bayshall Tooten. We saw a career day from Bayshall Tooten in week 11, even with that unfortunate ankle injury. He carried the ball 15 times for 74 yards in the touchdown against the Chargers. Now, Travis Etienne, if you look at that box score, he did have more carries than Tooten. But that largely happened because of Tooten's late game ankle injury. Prior to that injury, Tooten was actually out attempting Etienne 15 to 12 And it doesn't sound like that injury is a serious one for Tooten. So we could see more of this split rest of season in that Jacksonville backfield. Not only did Tooten look really good in the Zapp model, but he now could have flex appeal with injury related upside. Before he was just a handcuff, but if he's going to get this kind of work, he might make it into your flex. And that kind of player, it's perfect to have rostered this time of year.

Add Michael Wilson. Look, I know that I had Michael Wilson on last week's Sleeper show, as did most fantasy analysts. It was clear he was going to get more opportunity with Marvin Harrison Jr sidelined with appendicitis. But never in a million years did I expect this, this kind of performance. That was ridiculous. He absolutely torched the 49ers, at least statistically. He finished the day with 18 targets, 15 receptions, and 185 yards. And for the record, Marvin Harrison Jr, he's never had more than 7 receptions in a game throughout his NFL career, albeit his brief NFL career. Now context is obviously needed here. Jacoby Berset threw the ball 57 times against the 49ers. He'd average about 39 pass attempts per game prior to week 11, or at least per start. He also completed 47 of those passes, which was an NFL record. That's not going to continue, but this is exactly why we look at peripherals. Michael Wilson had a really solid 32% target share. And if Marvin Harrison Jr. is out again in week 12, which is very possible, then we're looking at Wilson as a very reasonable starter against Jacksonville. And who knows, maybe this performance will lead to more work down the stretch. Sel Josh Allen. Josh Allen went absolutely nuts against the Buccaneers on Sunday. He not only threw for 317 yards in three touchdowns, but he ran six times for 40 yards and three more scores on the ground. Allen has the highest ceiling in fantasy football, period. And because of that, if you're feeling OK about your Allen-led team, I don't think this transaction is a necessary one to make. But if you need to introduce a little bit more variance in your team, that might be a different story. There's a very real chance that this is the most fantasy points that Allen is going to score this season. It's going to be hard to top 43 standard points. So from that perspective, you'd be trading him away at a high point. But the crux of this recommendation, it stems from the fact that the Bills are going to face the Browns in Cleveland in week 16, and then the Eagles in Buffalo in week 17 Those are two bottom five matchups for quarterbacks by Adjusted Fantasy Points allowed. Quarterbacks against the Browns, they're scoring about three and a half points below their season-long average. With the Eagles, it's about 3.1 points. We just saw what Cleveland did to Lamar Jackson. In Philadelphia's defense, they're playing lights out right now. You should only trade away Josh Allen, this kind of fantasy asset, if you can truly, truly sell high. But for teams wanting to cash in now for a playoff push, at least know that it might not be butterflies and rainbows for Josh Allen during the most important weeks of the fantasy football season. Add Chris Rodriguez. So I talked about Chris Rodriguez in the Sleeper Show, because in that Lions game in week 10, he was very clearly playing ahead of Jacori Kroski-Merritt. He just suffered a shoulder injury. But he was back in healthy in week 11, and in that game, he had 30 offensive snaps. Jacori Kroski-Merritt was at 18 Rodriguez had a 53.6% running back rush share. He even saw a target. That was his first target of the entire season. Now look, I'll be honest with you guys. The odds that Rodriguez is like a league winner this year, pretty slim. But Washington does have an okay rest of season schedule for running backs. Especially in the fantasy playoffs, where they get the Giants in week 15, and then the Cowboys in week 17 Those are two of the best matchups you're gonna find across the league. There's a chance for some usability there. Just be aware of the commanders. They do have a buy here in week 12 So you won't be able to use Chris Rodriguez right away. Buy Lamar Jackson. So you guys might be having a little deja vu. I had Lamar Jackson as a buy last week, and he completely S'd the B against the Browns. He posted his lowest fantasy total of his entire career in a game where he had at least 20 pass attempts. Now in my defense, I did talk about this matchup as being a not great one. In my write up, I said, quote, a matchup against Cleveland this week isn't great, so you could always wait on this transaction. So hopefully, fingers crossed, you waited. Now I typically don't double down like this, but with such a bad performance, Jackson becomes an actual buy low candidate. And moving forward, according to my numbers, no team has a better quarterback schedule than the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens get the Jets, Bangles, Steelers, the Bangles again, Patriots, and Packers to close out the fantasy season. As I said last week, the only team among that group that kind of scares me for Lamar Jackson is probably Pittsburgh. And that's just because they've played him well historically. And Green Bay is a bottom half matchup too. But that's a really good schedule. And we're talking about Lamar Jackson. I don't want to overreact to what happened in week 11 He faced a good Browns defense. They were at home where they play a little bit better, and it's a division rival. He should be much better rest of season. Add Luther Burden. So full disclosure, I try to not repeat transactions week over week. I know I just did it with Lamar Jackson, and now I'm doing it with Luther Burden. But when I do it, I try to do it with players where there might be questions. Like should you still be buying Lamar Jackson? Should you still be adding Luther Burden? For example, I'm not going to talk about Sean Tucker today, because I talked about Sean Tucker last week. And Tucker went absolutely nuts against the Bills. At this point, you know to add him off the waiver wire. But what about someone like Luther Burden? And clearly, my answer is yes. Burden may not have had unbelievable production in week 11, but his peripherals were the best of his season. Burden had a 61% route participation rate, which was a season high, and he ran 22 routes to Olamide Zaccheaus' 7 Burden had an 18% target share, which was also a season high. As you guys know by now, he was a ZAP model darling. The ZAP model loved Luther Burden, and he's looked apart so far as a rookie. In fact, no one on Chicago right now is really close to him in yards per outrun. According to PFF, he has a 2.39 yards per outrun rate, which is awesome. So I'll say it again. Even if this doesn't work out in 2025, this is the exact type of player that you once stashed this time of year. And now that he's getting more playing time, now it's even more obvious. Add Jaden Higgins. Entering the season, I did not think that Xavier Hutchinson was going to be the reason that Jaden Higgins didn't have production in 2025 But here we are. In week 11, for just a second time this season, Jaden Higgins had more routes run than Xavier Hutchinson. And it was three more routes run. That was the largest margin that we've seen between those two players. Which yes, if you're listening to that and you're hearing that, yes, it is wild. It is insane. I don't know why this isn't happening more frequently. Hutchinson's yards per route run rate right now is below one yard. It's 0.3 yards below Higgins. Higgins being a rookie. And you'd think the Texans would want to get their rookies some more run. This includes Jalen Noll. They've quite literally been better than the veterans that are ahead of them on the depth chart. But regardless, with this small change, I think Higgins should be more on your radar. The Texans don't have like a special rest of season schedule, but with better target shares of late, including an 18% one in week 11, Higgins might be usable. We know that some rookies are going to break out down the stretch. Don't lose sight of that as you add guys off the waiver wire. By Jared Goff. We're talking about a lot of quarterbacks this week, which isn't typical for 15 Transactions. But Jared Goff is coming off a really bad performance against the Eagles. He only scored 12 fantasy points, and his completion percentage over expected, according to next gen stats, was minus 25.4 percent. That was the lowest completion percentage over expected and among all qualified quarterbacks this year in a single game. Now Goff hasn't been the same type of fantasy asset that he was last year. This year, he's averaging 17.4 points per game. Last year, he was at 19.1, and that's standard fantasy points. But I'm calling him out today because of something I talked about in the 10 Trends episode just a couple of weeks ago. Moving forward, the Lions don't have a single game outdoors through the end of the fantasy season. In week 12, they get the Giants in Detroit. Then it's the Packers and the Cowboys, both also in Detroit. Then they get the Rams, they're going to be in LA., the Steelers are back in Detroit, and then the Vikings in Minnesota. All of those games are under a roof. That gives the Lions a much better scoring environment. And on top of that, according to my numbers, Detroit has a top 10 schedule for quarterbacks rest of season. Even if those games weren't in ideal conditions, they'd still be against beatable opponents. Now, I don't know if Jared Goff is going to light the world on fire down the stretch, but for quarterback needy teams, he's not a bad target right now. Add Darnell Mooney. Look, guys, I know no one wants to hear this. I have a very specific person in the Spotify comments section who definitely doesn't want to hear this. But with Drake London's sideline with his PCL injury, Darnell Mooney does become a waiver wire target. You don't need to like spend the rest of your budget on him, but he is a target. And I know the last time the Falcons played without London, Mooney didn't do a thing. The offense was horrible. And that was with Kirk Cousins, who's going to be starting moving forward because Michael Pennex is hurt too. But crazy things can happen in a one game sample. And Mooney has now seen targeters of 32% and 24% over his last two games. But look, I'm not going to sell this any further. Mooney has not been good this year. He's failed to reach double digit PPR points and in every single game that he's played. But he's worth an end of bench stash because he's Atlanta's top wide receiver right now. Add Kenneth Gainwell. We've seen Kenneth Gainwell get to a 20% target share or better three times this year. One of them was in a game where Jalen Warren missed back in week four against the Vikings. Then the Steelers had a bye and then they played Cleveland in week six. Jalen Warren in that game didn't see his typical workload. And that led to a 20.7% target share for Kenneth Gainwell. And then on Sunday, Gainwell stepped in for an injured Warren and saw a near 28% target share. Now, Jalen Warren claims that he could have gone back into that game against the Bengals in week 11 after he had that ankle injury. But players say that kind of thing all the time. He's not necessarily a lock to play in week 12 And they get the Bears, which is a good match up by adjusted fantasy points allowed. At the very least, there's a chance for more of a split backfield, similar to what we saw out of their week 5 buy. So that could make Gainwell usable in deeper formats.