1051: 15 Transactions for Week 11

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up everyone, it's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1051 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. I won't bore you with anything to open up today's show. It's a super important time of year, trade deadlines are about to hit, and we've got to get these rosters ready for the fantasy playoffs. So, let's talk 15 Transactions for Week 11 And Luther Burden. Olamine Zaccheaus has run ahead of Luther Burden for most of the season, despite the fact that he's dead last on the team by a wide margin in yards per outrun. Luther Burden, according to NextGen stats, he's gaining a full yard of separation per target over Zaccheaus this year. His yak over expected profile is better too. Burden's a young explosive wide receiver who scored really, really well in the ZAP model. I really hope the Bears start to give him more work, and they might, because DJ Moore suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday against the Giants. In turn, Burden had his highest route share of the season, which was 49%. That's still not high enough. There's no doubt about that, but it's moving in the right direction. Burden ended up catching all three of his targets for 51 yards. If DJ Moore were to miss some time, Burden would get more run in that offense. There's no doubt. But even if he doesn't, both data and the eye test suggests that Burden should be playing more than Olamide Zaccheaus right now. Burden is the right type of player to have on your bench this time of year. Buy Lamar Jackson. Understandably, the fantasy football world, they're gonna tell you to buy Derrick Henry this week. He hasn't scored a touchdown in a couple of games, and he was vulture by Justice Hill in week 10 That touchdown, that came on a hurry up play. Hill just happened to be the running back that was on the field at that time. So if you can truly buy low on Derrick Henry, that's not a bad idea. You can go for it. Just don't forget about Lamar Jackson. Jackson hasn't done his typical insane things since returning from his injury a couple of weeks ago. He's averaged 25 rushing yards per game over his last two, which are two games after that injury. Before the hamstring injury, he was averaging 41.5 rushing yards per game. But think about this for a second. Did we really expect him to run that much coming off the injury in week nine? He was just getting up to speed. And then this past week, he faced a reasonable Minnesota front, and he also rushed for 36 yards. He just only found the endzone once through the air. Baltimore's rest of season quarterback schedule, it's arguably the best one in fantasy football. A matchup against Cleveland this week, it's not great. So you could always wait on this transaction if you want. But then, they get the Jets, Bengals, Steelers, Bengals again, Patriots and Packers to end the fantasy season. The only team that really scares me there maybe is Pittsburgh, maybe. But that's only because the Steelers have played Jackson well in the past. And that game doesn't come in the fantasy playoffs either. If the Jackson manager in your league is feeling a little bit iffy after that QB2 outing in week 10, maybe you can get them in a nice price.

Add Alec Pearce. So I shouted out Alec Pearce on a couple of episodes last week. The 10 Trends episode talked about him, the Sleeper Show talked about him. And because of that, I probably just should have talked about him on the 15 Transactions show. After his week 10 performance though, he definitely deserves a shout. Pearce now has 35 targets over the last four weeks. Michael Pittman, a player that everyone should like in fantasy football, is at 32 during that same stretch. Pearce is averaging almost 15 PPR points per game over these four games. Now the Colts are on by this week, and then out of that by, they have two rough matchups against the Chiefs and the Texans. But after that, things do open up a little bit more. And with Pearson by, maybe he's a little bit cheaper than he otherwise would be. Sell Marvin Harrison Jr. So like I talked about on last week's Mailbag episode, this move to Jacoby Burset for Arizona, it's a really good thing for Marvin Harrison Jr. overall. And we've seen that over the last couple of games. Harrison Jr. is at target shares of 34.5% and 27.3%.

Those are the two best target shares of his entire season. He scored 22.6 and 14.3 PPR points over those two games. Now, with all that being said, it was a little bit alarming to see Marvin Harrison Jr. catch just three of 12 targets on Sunday. And we can't forget that he did play against the Packers with Jacoby Burset the week prior to this two game stretch. He had an 18% target share in that game and 7.8 PPR points. Harrison Jr. has now scored in back-to-back games. One of those games, like I talked about last week, was against the best opponent for perimeter wide receivers in the NFL. Moving forward, specifically in the fantasy playoffs, his opponents are not going to be nearly as bad. In week 15, the Cardinals get the Texans. That's a bottom matchup for wide receivers. In week 16, it's Atlanta. That's a team that's been generally good at stopping the pass. And then in week 17, it's Cincinnati. As good of a matchup as the Bengals are, they've been okay against top wide receivers because of cornerback DJ Turner. So if you have Marvin Harrison Jr. and you're eyeing the playoffs, this could be a chance to sell high. Only if you can truly, truly sell high. Buy Trey Benson. Now, I've alluded to Benson being a buy candidate on this podcast over the last couple of weeks. Let's just make it official. We still don't know exactly when he's going to be back and on the field, but he suffered that knee injury back in week four, and the original timetable was that he was going to be back in four to six weeks. We're basically there now, and it comes at a good time. Bam Knight suffered an ankle injury in week 10 against the Seahawks. That backfield, it's Amari Demarcado and Michael Carter right now, which by the way, if Trey Benson doesn't go this weekend, those running backs not bad ads off the waiver wire. But look, in that game where Trey Benson was hurt, he had a 73% running back rush share and a 12.5% target share. Those are really good peripherals. Let's just say that he comes back and he sees that kind of workload. In week 16 and 17, the Cardinals get the Falcons and the Bengals. Atlanta slowly become a top 10 matchup for running backs by JJP allowed. Cincinnati is the best matchup. And that's during championship week. So if you're planning ahead and you want to have a player who has a shot to rise dramatically from a value perspective, even if his current situation is up in the air, I think Benson could be your guy. Add Tyler Algier. Bijon Robinson has not scored a rushing touchdown since week 6 Tyler Algier has 3 of them. As I said in the newsletter this week, the Falcons seriously just hate us. That's the only explanation. But realistically what's going on here is that Algier has 5 carries within the opponent's 10 yard line during this time frame. Bijon Robinson has 1 Now clearly, Algier is not going to be an easy player to trust week in and week out. But the Falcons over their next 3 games, they get the Panthers, Saints and Jets. Those each have the potential for favorable run-heavy game scripts. So at the very least, if you get Algier, you're handcuffing one of the best running backs in fantasy football. But there is some potential that he could find your flex.