1045: Week 9 Sleepers

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1045 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings, thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions of prizes with a first deposit of $5 or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code LATEROUND to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. New York? Call 8778-HOPE-NY. And Connecticut? Call 888-789-77777. 18 plus in most states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Ends December 31st. See terms at draftkings.com/promotions.

I was pretty pleased with the results of last week's sleeper show. But there were definitely some misses. Matthew Golden was a pretty big disappointment. Kyle Menungai and Brichard Smith, they both didn't get it done. Sterling Shepard barely did anything. And the defensive streamers, the Falcons and the Bengals, were really bad. Fortunately, I talked about the Buffalo defense. They came through. And there were strong performances from Jackson Dart, RJ Harvey, who had three touchdowns, Woody Marks, Kamani Vidal, Kyle Pitts, Joe Flacco, Tajay Spears, Troy Freaking Franklin, Arande Gadsden, Isaiah Davis, Jalen Nol, and even Jerry McNichols. So there were definitely some misses, but it was a strong week overall. The result of the last few weeks have been great. I'm hoping to keep it rolling here into week nine.

We'll kick things off with a tier of players rostered in 50% to 80% of Yahoo! Leagues, and we'll go to a guy who no one usually feels great about, but he is under that 80% mark, and it's Kyler Murray, assuming he plays, of course. The Cardinals get the Cowboys this week. That game has a 53.5 point total, which is currently the highest on this week's slate, and six of the Cowboys' eight games have gone over this year, with both of those games being on the road and outdoors. Dallas is the best opponent for quarterbacks by adjusted points allowed. They have up 6.7 points above their opponents' average points per game. So if that hits for Kyler this week, we're looking at well over 20 standard fantasy points. It's a good spot for any quarterback to be in. I'm going to go back to Jackson Dart this week too, because like I've been saying, I'm going to use him until he tells us not to, until he gives us a reason to not throw him in our lineup. The Giants get the 49ers this week, which is a pretty average matchup on paper. But they've also allowed a QB1 performance in three of their last four, including one to CJ Stroud this past week. Dart has scored 19 plus points and four of his five starts. He's yet to fall below 15 standard fantasy points in a game. He's a solid play in a game where the Giants have a reasonable 23 point implied team total. Joe Flacco has a shoulder injury, but if he goes this week, he should be okay to score some fantasy points. The Bengals are at home, they get the Bears. That game has a total over 50 points. Chicago's defense is beatable too. According to PFF data, they had the second lowest pressure rate in football. And according to my data, they're the fourth best matchup by adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks. That points to Flacco being a pretty great play if he is healthy. Moving on to running back, there aren't many great matchups in this tier, but I do want to call out Aaron Jones. Detroit's a bottom five opponent for running backs by adjusted fantasy points allowed, but they've allowed the tenth highest adjusted target share to the position. And Jones just last week in his return had a 50% RAL participation rate. Jordan Mason was at 22%. That led to a 13% target share for Aaron Jones. With Minnesota having the very real potential for a negative game script as 8.5 point underdogs, Jones has the opportunity to see the field more this week. It profiles as more of a Jones game than a Jordan Mason game, if this game goes as we're projecting it to go. And if that's the case, there's some PPR usability for Aaron Jones. At wide receiver in this tier, I can't believe this, but Travis Hunter is rostered in 79% of Yahoo Leagues. Not only is there a chance for him to just see more looks out of the buy in this offense, for him to be featured more, but as we know, he's seen really strong route participation rates over his last couple of games. Now he gets a Vegas team that ranks as the eighth best matchup by Adjusted Fantasy Points allowed to wide receivers. He's definitely something that you can play this week. Jawan Jennings and the 49ers get the Giants. I'm currently assuming that Mack Jones is starting, but Jennings could still be in play. The Giants are a bottom 10 team at defending wide receivers by Adjusted Points allowed, and Jennings has seen respectable target shares of 30% and 23% over his last two games. He hasn't found the endzone since week 2, and he's only found the endzone once this year. But the usage, it's starting to get there for him. That's why he works this week. I'm unsurprisingly gonna go back to Wondell Robinson this week, but this week's matchup is better than last week's. Robinson saw a 75% slot rate last week with Darius Slayton back in the lineup. That marks the highest rate that he's seen in the slot since week 3 The Giants get the 49ers. San Francisco ranks third in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the slot, and they're third in adjusted wide receiver target share allowed to the slot. Basically, it's a great slot matchup, and with Robinson seeing consistently good target shares, he's a great play. Another slot matchup to exploit, it could be Cooper Cupp against the Commanders. Now, this is obviously far riskier than the other wide receivers in this tier, but he's hit about a 50% slot rate in all but one game this year, and Washington's another team that hasn't been great at stopping slot receivers. On the season against slot wide outs, they've allowed the fourth most fantasy points and the second highest target share, and that's adjusted for strength of opponent. Seattle has a good 24.5 point total in this matchup, so Cupp's kind of sneaky out of this buy. Let's move on to tight end now and let's start with Kyle Pitts, who's just kind of undervalued in fantasy football. The Falcons faced the Patriots this week, New England's allowed the tenth most adjusted fantasy points to tight ends this year. Pitts has seen target shares of 28% and 30% over his last two games. So even if Drake London's back, I think Pitts should be fine. I'm going to shout out both Ravens tight ends too. I talked about them last week, but with Lamar Jackson out, they obviously lost their sleeper appeal. But Jackson is back on Thursday night, and I think Andrews and also Isaiah Likely are reasonable enough plays. Miami ranks third and adjusted target share allowed to tight ends this year. They're 13th and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Andrews is probably the safer bet, but don't forget Isaiah Likely has run more routes than Mark Andrews in back to back games. So I would call him out as a deep sleeper, but since I'm talking about this now, I'll just shout him out here. Isaiah Likely is a deep play. The next one is pretty obvious, Arande Gadsden. He's a guy who will hopefully be playing most weeks at tight end. The Chargers get a Titans team that they may not have a super pass every script against. And Tennessee is a bottom 10 matchup for tight ends. But Gadsden has been a top 3 tight end in back to back weeks, and he had a season high 91% route share in week 8 Even in these not so desirable matchups, he's something you probably don't want to leave on your bench. And then finally, there's Zach Ertz. Even with Terry McLorin back last week, and he's out this week, but even with McLorin back for most of that game, Ertz saw a 20% target share. He's hit a 20% share in 3 straight games. And now he gets a Seahawks defense that's allowed the 4th most adjusted fantasy points to tight ends this year. So he's not a bad option.