1041: Week 8 Sleepers

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason, and this is episode 1041 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first deposit of $5 or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code LATEROUND to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 100GAMBLER. In New York, call 8778HOPENY. In Connecticut, call 888-789-7777.

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You know, I went into last week's sleeper show not feeling that great. It was a really tough week, but I came out of it feeling pretty decent about the picks. Now, there were obviously some bad ones. As deep sleepers, the Rams wide receivers weren't usable at all. Pat Bryant, he didn't get the love that I thought could be possible. And Isaac Teslaw, he didn't catch a pass. Kendray Miller and Kareem Hunt were misses, with Miller obviously tearing his ACL. But, like, last week had some awesome hits that I'm really happy about. On Thursday night, there was Aaron Rodgers, Noah Phan, and Joe Flacco all giving good performances. Stafford was awesome in London. Ramandre Stevenson was the right call. Woody Marks scored. Romeo Dobbs had 13 PPR points. So did Kyle Pitt, Zach Ertz, and Cade Otten. Wondell Robinson got it done again. Tess Johnson scored almost 16 PPR points. Alec Pierce had 15 Kyle Monungai scored 17 And then Arande freaking Gatston had almost 30 And then there was the defenses. The three defenses that I called out last week were Cleveland, Carolina, and Chicago. Those three defenses ranked in the top six of the position last week. Considering what I was working with, I think last week might have been the best sleeper show of the season. I'm proud of the work. Let's hope things don't regress here in week eight.

Now, there are a lot of buys this week, which means we have fewer players to pick from, which means I'm stuck with another tough week, but that's okay. We can still find some gems. The first tier of sleepers consists of players rostered in 50 to 80% of Yahoo Leagues, and we've got one quarterback here and it's Jackson Dart. As I said in the 10 Trends episode, Dart is something you basically have to just keep starting until he shows you otherwise. Only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson are averaging more standard fantasy points per start this year. And Dart's giving fantasy managers a nice high floor with his legs. He's hit 54 rushing yards in three of four games. He scored a rushing touchdown in three of four games as well. With that being said, I'm definitely at least a little bit nervous about this rematch against the Eagles this week. The Giants are in Philadelphia this time, and they have an implied total of just a little over 18 points. The Eagles are also a top five team against quarterbacks this year by just a points allowed. I do think you can play them, but this isn't exactly like a smash spot. I just think darts at the point where he has a high ceiling each week, so I'm going to call him out. Moving on to running back, Kamani Vidal has seen running back rush shares of 75% and 90% over his last two games to go along with about a 10% target share. He's been the Chargers' go-to in that backfield, and now Hassan Haskins isn't expected to play on Thursday night. That could raise Vidal's potential even more. He gets a Vikings matchup that on paper really isn't that bad, or at least not as bad as people might think. The Vikings are a fringe bottom 10 team for running backs and adjusted points allowed, but they've actually played below expectation in running back rushing yards allowed. And they also rank 11th in adjusted target share given up to the position. So Vidal is definitely in play, and I think Woody Marks is again this week too. As I said on the 10 Trends episode, Marks had his best peripherals of the season last week. Or I guess it was on Monday night, so technically this week. He had a 67% running back rush share. He saw a lot of looks through the air too. Houston's line and that offense in general, it's messy for sure. In this matchup against the 49ers for Woody Marks, it's average to below average. But here's the thing. San Francisco ranks first in adjusted target share allowed to running backs this year. They're 32nd dead last in adjusted target share allowed to wide receivers. We know that Marks is the pass catching back in that backfield. Maybe more looks are going to go his way this week through the air. If you want sort of a deeper play out of this tier, this could be a decent week for RJ Harvey. And I know a lot of you are just looking for something at running back this week. Now, Harvey's unfortunately not seen much of an uptick in snap share over the last few weeks. He was at just 25% last week. Tyler Bade ended up playing just as much as RJ Harvey. But prior to last week when Harvey had a 5% target share, his target shares were 14%, 13%, 9%, and 16%. Those are strong. And the Broncos are in a potentially high scoring environment this week because they get Dallas. That's a team that can't stop that much defensively. They've also given up the third highest adjusted target share to running backs. Look, Harvey's very risky, but I could see a scenario where he gets like five or six targets in a full PPR environment. That might be enough given all these bi-weeks. Now, moving on to wide receiver, I might just have a segment every week where I talk about the Green Bay Packers wide outs. Romeo Dobbs and Matthew Golden. Dobbs is the play over Golden. He's seeing more consistent looks, but the Packers get the Steelers this week. Did you see that Steelers secondary in week 7? Pittsburgh's now allowed the second most adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers this year, and teams are targeting wide receivers when they face the Steelers. Pittsburgh's allowed the fifth highest adjusted target share to wide outs. It's a beatable defense and Golden and Dobbs should be able to take advantage. And honestly, let's throw Wondell Robinson into a weekly segment bucket too because I'm going to call him out again. Now, Philly's actually been arguably the toughest matchup for slot receivers this year, giving up the second fewest adjusted points and target share to the position. Robinson's playing all over the field right now, though, because all those wide receiver injuries for the Giants. So that's at least good. But the bottom line with him is that he's seen at least a 25% target share in all but two games this year. Without Malik neighbors, his target share per game rate has been 27%. And what could end up being a pass heavy script for the Giants? I think Robinson should have a decent enough floor. Now moving on to tight end, there are a lot of tight end plays this week, so buckle up. Now look, I'm definitely a little bit nervous about Mark Andrews because he ran fewer routes than Isaiah likely the last time we saw the Ravens. But I think Andrews can work this week. Chicago's been an above average matchup for tight ends this year and adjusted fantasy points allowed, and only the Bengals have seen a higher adjusted target share to the position. Baltimore has a 28.5 point implied team total with Lamar Jackson likely back, and the Bears have allowed 20 passing yards over expected to be thrown on them per game this year. That's a bottom 10 number in football. So you can look Andrews way and kind of hope for a touchdown. And rather than bore you later on in the show with the exact same information, I do think Isaiah likely works as a deeper sleeper. Kyle Pitts is coming off his highest target share in well over a year, and the Falcons get a Miami defense this week that's been average to above average for tight ends this season. We know Miami is horrible against the run, but they've been pretty friendly to running backs just in general. They've allowed the sixth highest adjusted target share to that position, but they're also fourth and adjusted target share allowed to tight ends. With Pitts seeing the relatively consistent work that he's seeing, he makes sense this week. I haven't called out this name in a while, but Evan Ingram is intriguing in that potential high scoring affair against the Cowboys. Ingram actually saw a season high 66% route share in week seven. He hasn't dipped below a 15% target share since week two. Granted, he's been between a 15% and 20% share each week, but that could yield a decent amount of volume against Dallas. There's a chance for a pass heavier script. Teams are also targeting their tight ends at a higher rate when they face the Cowboys compared to wide receivers. Dallas has actually allowed the second lowest adjusted target share to wide outs this year, but it's eighth highest to tight ends. So maybe Evan Ingram will be okay. And then finally, my guy Cardio Kade, Cade Otten. All the way up in this tier, he started from the bottom, now he's in the top tier in the sleeper show. The Buccaneers wide receiver room is super banged up, and that's helped Cade Otten over the last few weeks. He always has a high route participation rate, but his target shares have finally caught up. They've been at 16%, 26%, and 18% over his last three. The Saints are a slightly below average matchup for tight ends this year, but Tampa Bay has a 25.5 point implied team total, so Otten's not a bad play.