1039: 15 Transactions for Week 8

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1039 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings, thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first deposit of $5 or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code LATEROUND to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. New York? Call 8778-HOPE-NY. And Connecticut? Call 888-789-77777. 18 plus to most states. Eligibility restrictions apply, ends December 31st. See terms at draftkings.com/promotions.

It's a 15 Transactions day. Let's do this thing.

Add Arande Gadsden the second. So I've talked about Arande Gadsden a lot on this show this year. He's been on this 15 Transactions list multiple times, including last week. But after a 7-catch, 164-yard, 1-touchdown performance against the Colts and also on my benches across my leagues, I'd be hearing from a lot of you if I didn't call him out again. Gadsden needs to be rostered. He's a first-year tight end, and he's already putting up these kinds of numbers. And he did it this past week with a healthy wide receiver room. Quentin Johnston was active, and Will Disley has now been back in back-to-back games for two weeks. Despite that, Gadsden has hit a 77% raw participation rate in both of those contests. He had 29.4 PPR points on a 17% target share this past week. Now, we're obviously not going to expect 30 PPR points every single week, but consider this, Gadsden now has 308 receiving yards in five career games. Since 2000, the only tight ends who have hit 300 or more receiving yards in their first five games of their career have been Brock Bowers, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Warren, and Aaron Hernandez. There have only been eight tight ends to do that since 1970 When rookies show us something, we want to be aggressive and act. We want to add them off the waiver wire, which is why I did that earlier in the season with Gadsden. But he's still out there in the majority of leagues. You gotta get him this week. Add Breschard Smith. Another player I've talked about on this show quite a bit this year is Breschard Smith. You guys know him as a sucker for receiving running back and one who has a lot of juice, and that's exactly what we have with Breschard Smith. Against the Raiders, he saw a season-high 36% snap share. That's really why I'm calling him out. He got more work this past week. He handled 42% of the team's running back rushes. That was another season-high. He had a 14.7% target share. Also a season-high. Now, some of you will rightfully point to GameScript as a reason why Breschard Smith saw the workload that he saw. He did see 10 of his 14 rush attempts in the fourth quarter against the Raiders. That was when the game was well out of reach. But four of his five targets came in the first half. He saw some work on the Chief's first drive. I think Smith should be rostered in way more leagues. He's a great stash and he's on a team that doesn't have a running back quite like him on the roster. Aside from him, of course.

By Rome Odunze. Rome Odunze started the season averaging 19.9 PPR points per game over his first four. Across his last two, he scored 5.2 and 5.1 PPR points. Now I talked about Odunze a bit on last week's 10 Trends episode. I mentioned that his catchable targets rate had been slipping. According to Fantasy Life data, 83% of Odunze's targets were deemed catchable in weeks one and two. That's when he had 15.7 and 31.8 PPR points. Since then, his catchable targets rate has been 42%. In weeks seven, it was 33%. So you might be wondering, how bad is that number? Well, pre-Monday Night Football, among 114 qualified wide receivers from weeks three through seven, Odunze's catchable targets rate is 112 out of 114 Now, a metric like that isn't everything. There's still some subjectivity to it. There's also necessary context that's needed, like the fact that Odunze has a 14.7 average depth of target during this time. Down the field looks are going to be more difficult on the accuracy front. Still, Marvin Harrison Jr. has the exact same A-dot during that period of time. His catchable target rate is 72%. Keep in mind, Rome Odunze is 42%. We can't sell this as a good thing. Now, I do think that we can look at this and say it'll probably regress. In 2024, for example, not a single wide receiver with 100 or more routes run had a catchable target rate below 44%. Remember, Odunze's has been below that since week two. And generally speaking, the volume is still there for Odunze. Post week two, if we want to continue with that split, he's had a solid enough 22% target share. Now, his first read target share has dropped post-buy, according to CBS Sports' Jacob Gibbs. That could explain the slight dip in target share overall. But it's not like he's not getting any volume. It's not like his target share is all of a sudden 15%. He's still seeing an okay piece of the pie. So in my opinion, Odunze is a good wide receiver, and he should see better targets moving forward, even if this is a Caleb Williams problem. It likely won't be this bad rest of season. And Chicago wide receivers have one of the best short-term schedules in all of fantasy football. They get the Ravens, Bengals, and Giants over their next three. So I think right now is probably the time to buy Rome Odunze. Add Kyle Menungai. So let's stick with the Bears, and let's look at Kyle Menungai out of that backfield. Now Deandre Swift, he's playing solid football right now. He's got a plus point four rushing yards over expected per attempt rate. That's according to next gen stats. That's about average. That's right next to Kyron Williams within that metric. His success rate, it's top 15 in the league. He ranks right next to Jonathan Taylor, and he's second in the NFL and 10 plus yard runs. This transaction is not really anti Deandre Swift at all. He's been fine. It's just that Kyle Menungai saw his best workload of the season in week seven. He had a 39% running back rush share and a 12% target share. And yeah, game flow, game script, that played a role. He saw four of his 13 carries on the final drive of that game. But he was getting touches throughout that contest against New Orleans, not just at the end. And he's been okay this year, all things considered. I don't think he's like a stud, but he's a solid running back. The Bears in general have a top 10 rushing success rate in football. They can get it going at times on the ground with Ben Johnson calling plays. So with favorable matchups upcoming against Baltimore and Cincinnati, Madungai might be a worthwhile bi-week filling. At the very least, he's a DeAndre Swift handcuff.