1038: Mailbag - Rashee Rice's Return, Jerry Jeudy's Outlook, and More

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up everyone, it's JJ Zachariason, and this episode 1038 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with a first deposit of $5 or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code LATEROUND to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling Prom Call 1-800-GAMBLER, New York Call 8778-HOPE-NY, and Connecticut Call 888-789-7777. 18 plus in most states, eligibility restrictions apply, ends December 31st. See terms at draftkings.com/promotions.

It's a mailbag day, let's get to these questions.

The first question this week is from Twitter. It's from at web's gems FFL. It says, what type of process do you use for a player like Rashee Rice coming off injury and now suspension in terms of when to slot them into your lineup? Do you need a sample size or do players of this caliber warrant immediate play and fantasy? So I got a couple questions about Rice this week. I'll just throw some thoughts out there. I can't imagine anyone with Rashee Rice has like two or three better options than him this week. Genuinely, wide receivers is really weak across the board this season. There are like 10 to 15 wide receivers that we actually feel good about each and every week. And it's just the rest. Like, sure, we like Chris Alave more than we like DJ Moore. I'm just saying, from a true difference makers perspective, there aren't many wide receivers. And guys, Rashee Rice has a legit chance to be a true difference maker. This isn't a borderline talent and a borderline situation type of play. This is a good player who plays a great role in an offense that has an elite quarterback. Fire up Rashee Rice and enjoy the ride. This next question is also from Twitter. It's from at Urban Lab. It says, 13 targets for Jerry Jeudy? That's got to warrant some analysis. Okay, let's do some analysis. Jerry Jeudy had 13 targets against the Steelers. It still was just a 25.5% target share though. And I say just because you'd expect a higher target share with 13 targets. But the reason it wasn't higher is because Cleveland threw the ball a ton against the Steelers. Dylan Gabriel finished that game with 52 pass attempts. The week prior in his debut, he was at 33, in a much more neutral game script. To me, Jeudy only scoring 9.3 PPR points in an ideal game environment is pretty telling about him and this situation in general. That was without Cedric Tillman and with a banged up Davin and Joko. According to NextGen's stats, his catch rate over expected, which is just telling the story more than anything else. I'm going to be talking about these types of metrics in just a second, later in the show. But his catch rate over expected was minus 21% in that game. PFF had his catchable targets at 62%. On paper, sure, we would love this kind of usage in a different environment, no doubt. But Jeudy has topped out at 11.6 PPR points this season. That was in week one. He's still not producing much without Cedric Tillman in the lineup. I think he's fine this week given the matchup, although watch the weather in that game. But I don't think we're going to see consistent production from Jerry Jeudy this year, despite the fact that once again, he leads the NFL in Routes Run. It's just that as the kids would say, the offensive environment is Cheeks. Right? Did I get that right? Look, man, I'm a millennial. I'm starting to get old. But Jerry Jeudy is not a good enough player to overcome this situation.

This next question is from Patreon. It's from Rick. It says, Thoughts on the running back situation in both Jacksonville with Etienne and Tooten and Houston with Chubb and Marks. Etienne seemed to maybe slow down, and Big Week for Marks after The Weird One vs Baltimore. I think what's important with these situations is to follow usage over production. Production obviously matters, and good production can clearly lead to more work. I mean, look at the discussion happening right now in Carolina after Rico Dowdell's gotten nuts over the last two weeks. But usage is going to be more telling than actual production. Like for instance, you're saying that Etienne seemed to maybe slow down. But really, all that's been happening is some regression on the production side. This is why I was talking about him a couple of weeks ago as a cell candidate. He wasn't going to maintain his six yards per carry average, while scoring a touchdown every single game. But there's going to be more signal for us as fantasy players when we look at usage. Unless a player is just playing like egregiously bad or egregiously worse than his backup. And that's not the case for Etienne. What's funny is that over the last two weeks, when he hasn't been performing that well, Etienne has actually seen his best running back rush share and target share combos of the season. From weeks one through four, his target share per game rate was just 7.4%. Over his last two, it's been 14%. Weeks one to four, his running back rush share, 69% per game. Over his last two, it's been close to 78%. And then meanwhile, his snap share has basically been the same throughout. The thing that changed really is just some regression combined with tougher matchups. Now, I'm still holding Tooten because I liked him as a prospect, and at the very least, he's a high-end handcuff. This is an attractive rushing offense. And I'm still holding out hope that Etienne gives some of his work away as the season progresses. But it's clear right now today, Tooten is just a stash. Meanwhile, Woody Marks actually has some usability. I talked about this on The Sleeper Show yesterday. In a different game script, things would likely look a little bit different. But again, a lot of people seem to be looking at that game before the buy and getting concerned about Woody Marks, because Nick Chubb out-produced him. And yes, of course, we'd rather see Woody Marks out-produce Nick Chubb. But there can be instances where Nick Chubb out-produces Woody Marks. It doesn't mean that Chubb is a better running back. It's just that sometimes it's due to match-up. Sometimes things really clicked for that running back in that game. And despite that game script against Baltimore being the way that it was, Marks still had a better snap share than Nick Chubb. And Chubb's only running routes on like 25 to 30% of Houston's drop backs right now. I think what's going to be really important for fantasy managers like if you have Woody Marks is to not attribute some spike in Woody Marks' production this week to some post-buy bump. Because if that happens, if Woody Marks has a better game, it's more than likely going to have something to do with game script or just having a better game in general. I also don't think Marks is going to be like a full-blown bell cow in that offense. That's not how I viewed him as a prospect. He's someone that I like because we want receiving work with our running backs. And if he can find like a 50%, 60% running back rush share in that offense to go along with that receiving work, he could be an RB to in fantasy. Just because Nick Chubb is getting some work doesn't mean that it's all over for Woody Marks. Keep that in mind too.