1037: Week 7 Sleepers

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1037 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings, thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first deposit of $5 or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code LATEROUND to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. In New York, call 8778-HOPE-NY. In Connecticut, call 888-789-7777. 18 plus in most states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Ends December 31st. See terms at draftkings.com/promotions.

Last week wasn't that bad for this sleeper show, but it wasn't as good as week 5 On the bad side, Mason Taylor barely did anything. I called out Kamani Vidal, but I liked Hassan Haskins more based on reports. Jawan Jennings had more injuries than I realized. Ramandre Stevenson was absolutely terrible. Taekwon Thornton, he didn't come through as a desperation play, and Matthew Stafford failed to score 10 points. On the good side, though, the Vegas defense was a great streaming choice. Harold Fannin scored over 15 PPR points. Wondell Robinson posted a 20-burger in PPR leagues. Bryce Young had 18.5. Sam Darnold was at 20 Kendrick Bourne had another strong outing. Rico Dowdle crushed his old team. Michael Mayer was a great streaming choice. And Jake Tungus and Kate Otten both had double-digit PPR points. It wasn't a bad sleeper show. I'm not totally upset with those results. But I'll tell you guys what. Week 7, incredibly difficult week. Let's see what we've got.

The quarterback and defensive streamers this week are terrible. And there's really not that much depth in the waiver wire outside of tight end. Tight end, low-key has been there for us this year. But we'll kick things off with players rostered in 50 to 80% of Yahoo leagues. And I've got one quarterback in this tier for you. And it's a guy who's been here the last couple of weeks, Matthew Stafford. Yes, he had a bad outing last week, and yes, I don't expect Pukinakua to play. But this match against Jacksonville, it's not a bad one. The Jags have given up the 13th most adjusted points to quarterbacks this year, so they're a slightly above average matchup from that perspective. They also really haven't gotten to the quarterback this year, according to PFF data. When looking at pressure rate allowed versus pressure rate given, Stafford and the Rams have an above average matchup there this weekend. And he's been a fringe top 10 quarterback this year, and quarterback rating from a clean pocket. The Jags have also allowed 27 quarterback passing yards over expected per game. That makes them one of the more favorable matchups from that standpoint. So to me, this is an above average matchup all around. It's not elite, but it's above average. And Stafford still has other weapons in that offense, specifically Devontae Adams. So he's still an okay play. At running back, Woody Marks is back off his buy, and I'm interested. I'm not super interested, but I'm interested. The last time we saw the Texans, they were going up against the Ravens. Baltimore, as we know, they've struggled defensively, and they didn't have Lamar Jackson in that game, creating a nice positive game script for Houston. That's going to favor Nick Chubb more than Woody Marks. But even in that game, Marks played more snaps, and he ran more routes than Nick Chubb. Chubb, according to FantasyLife data, hasn't played any long down and distance or two-minute snaps for the Texans this year. Woody Marks, since week two, has played almost 60% of their long down and distance snaps and 88% of their two-minute snaps. They get Seattle this week, in Seattle. The Seahawks are 3.5 point favorites, so we're likely going to see more of a neutral or negative game script. Now Seattle's done an easy matchup. They've been good at limiting running back yardage, and they're the 21st best matchup by adjusted points allowed. But I do think that Marks could see volume in this game, making him viable enough for teams needing a flex or a bi-week fill-in. Ramandre Stevenson is making this list again too, and it's entirely based on this matchup against Tennessee. It's a juicy one. The Titans have actually been a bottom five matchup by adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks this year, but they're top five for running backs, thanks to game script, of course. But Stevenson, he's coming off a game where he saw almost 60% of New England's running back rushes, and he saw a season-high 71% snap share. Now, of course, he wasn't effective on his rushes, but in this matchup, that volume can score fantasy points. Moving on to wide receiver, I'm going to go back to the Packers guys, who are still under that 80% mark on Yahoo. And by Packers guys, I'm referring, of course, to Matthew Golden and Romeo Dops. This week, they get a Cardinals secondary that's been totally average against wide outs this year by adjusted points allowed. But Arizona, they've allowed 23 passing yards over expected per game to be thrown on them. Green Bay has a great 25.5 point total. I've got Dobbs ranked ahead of Golden because he just keeps playing the wide receiver one role on the team. He's coming off a game with a 35% target share, but both of them should work against the Cardinals. Wanda Robinson doesn't have a great matchup this week against Denver. The Broncos are the fifth toughest matchup for wide outs by adjusted points allowed, but oddly, they rank first in adjusted target share allowed to the position. And they've been worse against the slot than they have the perimeter, which makes sense given their defensive personnel. Denver's 20th in adjusted slot points allowed to wide receivers. So it's a little bit more advantageous there. Robinson's still running around 65 to 70% of his routes from that area of the field. He's just running more routes in general since Malik neighbors went down. And he's dipped below an 18% target share just once this year. He's been below a 25% target share just twice. So I do think Robinson is still kind of a floor option, even in a tougher matchup. At tight end in this tier, I've got Kyle Pitts. He only saw a 13% target share last week, but that was a season low for him. He still had a 94% route share. That's more or less what he's seen most of the season. He's out there running a lot of routes, which is always what we want to see. The Falcons get the 49ers this week. San Francisco is the 11th best matchup for tight ends by Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed. They've allowed the 5th highest adjusted target share to the position. So Kyle Pitts should be fine. Zach Gertz is the last player to finish up this tier. That Dallas-Washington game, it profiles as a shootout. It's got the highest total on the week by far, and I want every piece I can get of that game. Dallas has technically been better against tight ends than any other position, but they're still the 14th best matchup for that position. And they've actually allowed the 9th highest adjusted target share to tight ends. Gertz is coming off a strong outing against Chicago. He's now fallen below a 78% route participation rate just once this year, so he's a decent option this week.