1033: Week 6 Sleepers

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1033 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings, thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first deposit of $5 or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code LATEROUND to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. New York? Call 8778-HOPE-NY. And Connecticut? Call 888-789-7777. 18 plus in most states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Ends December 31st. See terms at draftkings.com/promotions.

I was actually pretty pleased with how last week's sleeper show went. I ranked Justin Fields as my QB2, and that was looking iffy at first, but Garbage Time Fields came through, and he scored 26 standard fantasy points. Trey Tucker had an okay outing, Sam Darnold was a great call, Matthew Stafford posted some ridiculous numbers, Rashad White was great, Darren Waller balled out, Rico Dowdle destroyed, Michael Carter was the right Arizona Cardinals running back, Theo Johnson had 21 PPR points, Mason Taylor had almost 18, Harold Fanon found the end zone, I mean, even Cade Otten, Cardio Cade, had 12 PPR points. We had some really big hits last week. Now, of course, there were also some misses. I had the right process with Jalen Tolbert, in my opinion, just given Ryan Flanoy's performance, but I picked the wrong Cowboys receiver. The Rams defense really, really choked. Woody Marks, 2.4 PPR points. Blake Corum, a horrible game. And Sean Tucker wasn't great either. But all in all, that was probably the best sleeper show of the season. I was feeling really iffy about it when I recorded it too. Let's keep things going into week 6

We're going to kick off this week's show the same way we kicked off last week's show, and that's with Matthew Stafford. You definitely have to be worried about the Rams getting conservative and not having to push things against this Ravens team. Because with Lamar Jackson banged up, and I'm assuming he's going to be out this week, though that's not confirmed right now. But this Ravens offense is not very good at the moment, without Lamar Jackson. That's why the Rams are 7.5-point road favorites. But we thought the exact same thing last week against the 49ers, and look what happened. The Rams are supposed to score some points this week, and that's what matters most. They have a 26-point implied team total, which is one of the best on the slate, and Baltimore is the second best matchup so far this year by adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Teams are throwing about 38 more yards on the Ravens compared to their season-long averages. Stafford's playing great football right now. He should be fine as a starter this week. Now, that's the only quarterback in this tier of players rostered in 50-80% of Yahoo! Let's move on to running back, and let's talk about Ramandre Stevenson. Antonio Gibson is out for the year with a torn ACL, and Traveon Henderson isn't quite ready yet. He's not quite ready to see the majority of the work in that New England backfield. Stevenson has a better cushion with his fumbling issues as a result. Stevenson's seeing the goal line work in that offense, he's had a respectable route participation rate of 55% and 47% over his last two games. Those aren't great numbers, but they're usable. We can work with that. The Patriots get the Saints this week. That game has the fastest pace score among all matchups this week. That's just my way of displaying which games might be faster paced. And New England has a 24.5 point implied team total. The Saints have also been worse at limiting rushing yards to running backs than passing yards to quarterbacks. I think Stevenson can be usable despite those fumbling issues. Michael Carter saw the right kind of matchup in GameScript for his skill set, or at least how Arizona sees his skill set in week five. He ended the day with a 72% running back rush here and a 17% target share. And his backfield teammate made a costly mistake. That could end up costing him more work in week six. That should only make you feel better about Michael Carter. Now Arizona doesn't have the greatest matchup in the world this weekend against Indianapolis, but it's just slightly below average on paper. Given the workload, I think Carter works. A backup running back I like more though is Rico Dowdell. Dowdell is in the absolute perfect spot this week, assuming Chuba Hubbard doesn't play. But even if Hubbard does, Dowdell would be considered more of a flex play given his performance last week and the matchup this week. Not only that, but Chuba Hubbard probably wouldn't see his normal workload. Dowdell gets a revenge game against the Cowboys this week. Dallas has been weak defensively this year, both against the run and the pass. They've allowed the second most adjusted fantasy points to running backs. So if Hubbard's out, Dowdell is legit a low-end RB1 in fantasy. Moving on to wide receiver, we'll see what's going to happen to the 49ers' pass catchers. But of the two, Jawan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall, it sounds better for Jawan Jennings this weekend. And I'm into him. Like I said in the 15 Transaction Show, Jennings has only had a route share above 80% in one game this year. And in that game, he scored almost 20 PPR points. The 49ers get a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that's allowed the 12th most adjusted points to wide receivers this year, and they've allowed the 6th highest adjusted target share to the position. So teams are throwing it to wide receivers when they face the Bucs. Don't sleep on Jennings. In that same game, but on the opposite side of the field, is Chris Godwin. Now, you may be questioning using Godwin based on the fact that he didn't come through last week. He actually saw his usage slip a little bit. That's true. But Godwin saw his slot rate rise to 53% in Week 5 San Francisco has been beat in the slot to start the year. When adjusted for strength of opponent, they will have the second most fantasy points and the second highest target share to slot receivers. In a game that could see an OK amount of scoring, I don't totally mind Godwin. It sounds like Darius Slayton is going to miss Thursday night's game against the Eagles, which means Juan Del Robinson is the clear top target in that passing attack. Which on one hand, pretty scary. On the other, he could be peppered with targets. And that's what this is really about here. Robinson is seeing the highest route shares of his career right now. He's dipped below an 18% target share just once this season. His match against the Eagles is no cakewalk. But if a player is probably going to see a 20 to 25% target share, if not higher, then he's going to be called out on this show. I'll throw Romeo Dobbs and Matthew Golden out there this week, too. The Packers may not throw the ball a ton this week against Cincinnati, but the Bengals are a top five team for wide receivers this year by adjusted fantasy points allowed. And Green Bay has an implied team total of 29 points, the highest on the week. There's touchdown potential for these pass catchers. Now Romeo Dobbs is probably the preferred choice. The last time we saw him, he scored 27 PPR points. He's running the most routes on the Packers, too. But it's not the worst spot in the world either for Matthew Golden. At tight end in this tier, I got one for you, it's Darren Waller. The matchup this week against the Chargers, not nearly as good as it was last week against the Panthers. But Waller saw an uptick in RAL participation last week, going from 36% in his debut to 68%. He's seen end zone targets in both games he's played this year. That touchdown upside is gonna be there each week for Waller. And that's why at this moment, I have him ranked as a tight end one in fantasy rest of season.