1031: 15 Transactions for Week 6

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason in this episode, 1031 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first deposit of $5 or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code LATEROUND to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. New York? Call 8778-HOPE-NY. And Connecticut? Call 888-789-7777. 18 plus in most states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Ends December 31st. See terms at draftkings.com/promotions.

Let's get to these 15 Transactions.

Add Michael Carter. So when I did this 15 Transactions show last week, we had no idea that Trey Benson was about to go on IR. We barely knew that he was hurt. We just knew he was a little bit banged up. Now, fortunately, on the Sleepers episode last week, I talked about the Cardinals' backfield. I talked about liking Michael Carter more than Amare Di Marcato, and I discussed it with Late-Round Fantasy Football patrons as well. So hopefully anyone consuming my content already has Michael Carter. But regardless, if you don't, he's probably the number one priority this week off the waiver wire. Now, I'll be honest, that Arizona backfield split, it could have gone in a different direction. In situations like that, we don't know exactly what's going to happen. I'm not on the Arizona Cardinals' coaching staff. I'm just using context clues to try to get us the best answer. And that answer in week five was Michael Carter. He played 20 more snaps than Amare Di Marcato, and despite Di Marcato being that third down back, Carter still ran eight more routes. Michael Carter ended that game with a 72% running back rush share and a 17% target share. Those are kind of awesome numbers. And then as we know, Amare Di Marcato had that costly fumble in the game. That only makes me feel more bullish about Michael Carter's workload moving forward. Trey Benson's injury is supposed to sideline him for four to six weeks. We realistically could get another month of solid Michael Carter production.

Buy Trey McBride. So let's stick with the Cardinals here and let's shift our focus to Trey McBride. He's basically doing what he did last year, except just a little bit worse. In 2024, his target share per game rate, 29.9%. This year, it's closer to 27%. Last year, he averaged 15.9 expected fantasy points per game. That's in PPR formats, and that's according to PFF's model. This year, he's at 13.9. But this season, McBride's playing further below expectation. He's averaging 12.5 PPR points per game, despite getting 8.4 targets per contest. And as I just said, he has 12.5 PPR points per game, he should be closer to 14, just based on where he's seeing his targets. There might be a frustrated Trey McBride manager out there. I know that some people in the Late-Round Fantasy Football Discord, they've been kind of frustrated with them. And maybe this is just what he is this season. He's just a high floor, low ceiling tight end. But I do think he's more buy than sell. The Cardinals have a favorable rest of season schedule for tight ends, he's playing below expectation, like I said, and over the last few weeks, only Jake Ferguson is averaging more expected fantasy points per game than Trey McBride is. That's at the tight end position. And it doesn't hurt that Marvin Harrison Jr. has not taken that next step this season. He has a 20% target share. This is admittedly a transaction that I wouldn't go nuts over. Like, definitely don't pay draft day costs to get Trey McBride. But if you want a little bit more stability at the tight end position, and you know the manager in your league is a little bit frustrated with this production, then why not send an offer? Add Kendray Miller. So I talked about Kendray Miller a couple times on last week's show. And in week 5, we saw his snap share get even better. His snap share was 39%, it was 32% in week 4 And that resulted in him hitting a season-high 55.6% running back rush share. Now the issue with Kendray Miller, and I talked about this last week, is gonna be his pass catching. Alvin Kamara is still in that backfield. We've yet to see Miller get to a 5% target share in a game this year. And his route participation rates have all been below 30%. And then the other obvious thing here is that Kendray Miller is gonna work better in positive game scripts. In New Orleans, they're not gonna see many positive game scripts, and that offense is not very good. They were fine against the Giants this past weekend, fine. But any poor game script is gonna lead to more Alvin Kamara, not Kendray Miller. According to Fantasy Life Data, Kamara has played about 80% of the team's long down and distance snaps this year. So it's fine to have Kendray Miller rostered. It's a really weak waiver wire week. If he's still out there, go ahead and add him. Workloads can shift, injuries can happen, trades can happen. But at this moment, he's more like a random bi-week fill-in than a true top 30 running back. Sell Ja'Marr Chase So the Bengals offense was able to move the ball a little bit better against the Lions this past weekend. I talked about that with James Coe on last week's Late-Round Perspectives episode. It was good to see that come to fruition. But guys, this Cincinnati offense is still not very good. That Detroit defense is pretty banged up, and it still took garbage time for the Bengals to compile fantasy production. Ja'Marr Chase was the one who benefited most. He scored 29 PPR points. He had a 25% target share. And trust me, guys, this transaction has nothing to do with Ja'Marr Chase the player. He's obviously a fantastic player, one of the best in the league, if not the best. I'm just not convinced he's back from a fantasy perspective. Entering the week, I talked about this on last week's 10 Trends episode. Entering the week, Chase had played eight games with Jake Browning under center. He averaged 11.2 PPR points per game in those contests. Outside of those games, since the start of 2023, Chase was at 22 PPR points per game. He was a totally different wide receiver in fantasy football with and without Jake Browning, which is not that surprising, but those splits are pretty glaring. Now, that 29-point outing is going to help that average, but we're still looking at a player, an unbelievably talented player, who's likely going to see some valleys with his peaks this year. And honestly, the only reason why I'm calling out Ja'Marr Chase is because of rest-of-season rankings. Entering week 5, Fantasy Pro's rankers, they were still listing Chase as a top 10 player in fantasy football, ahead of players like James Cook, ahead of CD. Lamb, ahead of Devon A. Chan. I was well below the market, even knowing that he could have a great week 5 performance. And he had that great week 5 performance, so what's going to happen to his rest-of-season ranking? It's more than likely going to rise. But I'm still concerned. The Bengals in that spot against the Lions, they still finished outside the top 20 in total yards and EPA per play. They were bottom half in the league and rushing success rate. They allowed a top 5 pressure rate. This offense is probably not going to be very good as long as Jake Browning is under center. Like I could sit on this podcast and easily call out T. Higgins. But no one's buying T. Higgins right now. Given the rankings that I'm seeing though, people might be buying Ja'Marr Chase still. And if you can get them for a price of a top 10 player, I would do that. Add Darnell Mooney. It's been a pretty weird season for Darnell Mooney. He was banged up throughout training camp and in the pre-season, and he wasn't able to find the field until week two against the Vikings. But if you remember that game, the Falcons had a pretty run-heavy script because they were leading. So he only had four targets, but he had a 19% target share in that game. And then in week three, the Falcons couldn't do anything offensively against the Panthers. Mooney still saw 11 targets and a 27% target share. And then in week four, the last time we saw Atlanta, Mooney got hurt again. But the team seems optimistic that he's going to be able to play this weekend. And given what I just said, if we're just being totally objective here, we haven't really seen a normal situation for Darnell Mooney this year. And yet, his fantasy managers have been dropping him. He's only rostered in 33% of Yahoo! Leagues right now. Last season, he was one of the best deep ball players in the NFL. He only trailed George Pickens, DK Metcalf and Justin Jefferson, and 20 plus air yard catches. He had a 21% target share in that Falcons offense. There's really no reason that he should be sitting on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues. Atlanta has a top 10 rest of season schedule for wide receivers, according to my Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed numbers too. So you should be adding Darnell Mooney if he's out there. Add Kendrick Bourne. I have no idea at the time of this recording, how healthy Ricky Pearson and Juwan Jennings are. But what I do know is that Kendrick Bourne had a great week five. He tied for the team lead in target share against the Rams. He ended up catching 10 of 11 targets for 142 yards. I think if one of Jennings or Pearson don't go this weekend, Kendrick Bourne is probably going to operate as a number two receiver. He's going to be rewarded for how he performed on Thursday night. You would think. It seems like that connection with Mack Jones was very, very real. But I will say he technically did run fewer routes than Demarcus Robinson. But I'm still adding Kendrick Bourne given that performance.