1028: 10 Trends for Week 5

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1028 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings, thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first deposit of $5 or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code LATEROUND to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. In New York, call 8778-HOPE-NY. In Connecticut, call 888-789-7777. 18 plus in most states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Ends December 31st. See terms at draftkings.com/promotions.

It's a 10 Trends Day. Let's do it. Kendre Miller was almost a transaction on yesterday's show. But I went against it because it wasn't as pressing as some of the other things that I wanted to talk about. But Miller's an interesting player right now in fantasy football. Things are trending in the right direction for him. His snap shares have gone from 13% to 16% to 27% and then to 33% over the course of the season. And he's been slowly seeing higher running back rush shares in that same offense too. So far this year, he has pretty comparable success rate in yards over expected per rush numbers as Alvin Camara. Now I don't know if we're going to get a lot of usability from Miller without a Camara injury, but maybe you get some flex appeal in deeper formats. But that's really why I didn't talk about him. I don't know what this usability really might look like, but he at least is seeing a little bit more work, and that's noteworthy for this Trends episode. Another player I could have called out on yesterday's show is Isaiah Bond. Cedric Tillman's banged up, so Bond should get more run in this Brown's offense. Because of that Tillman injury, Bond ran around in 71 percent of Cleveland's drop backs in week four. He saw a career high 19 percent target share. He's now seen his route share, his targets per out run rate, and his target share rise every week this season. Bond was someone the ZAP model really liked, but he went on drafted because of off the field issues. He should be on your radar though because of this Cedric Tillman hammy.

Drake London finally had a big performance. He scored 25 PPR points against the commanders. He had a 38.5 percent target share. He did everything in that game. Some of you might be wondering if there was an actual change that took place for London, something that sparked this. And I would say yes, there was. Number one, he saw his highest average at the target of the season at 12.2 yards. That was good. But number two, he ran half of his routes in week four from the slot. In week three, his slot rate was 18.6 percent. That's according to PFF. The Falcons used London in the slot on 39 percent of his routes last season. That was a career high. He'd been in the 20 to 25 percent range during his first two years. And last year, London saw a 2.57 yards per route run rate out of the slot. When he lined up on the outside, that number fell to 2.15, which is still really good. But Drake London, he can work that slot area to our benefit. This is something to watch. It's really good to see them move them around after that really bad Falcons offensive performance in Week 3 Ja'Marr Chase is a Jake Browning problem. I mean, the entire Cincinnati Bengals offense does. When doing my rest of season rankings this week, I was shocked to see how high other rankers had Ja'Marr Chase. It's pretty clear he's not going to be close to the player that we drafted him to be. And really, it's not his fault. Jake Browning has now started 9 games for the Bengals dating back to 2023 Ja'Marr Chase has played in 8 of them. In those games, actually, you know what? Let me tell you about Chase outside of those games first. When he hasn't played with Jake Browning since 2023, Ja'Marr Chase has averaged 22 PPR points per game. He's an absolute monster. His target share per game rate is about 28% in those contests. Now with Jake Browning, 8 games with Jake Browning, his PPR points per game average goes from 22 points to 11.2. His target share falls to about 23.4%. I mean, guys, this is a huge problem. We knew it would be an issue, but it's become a legit issue. I don't think we can simply look at Ja'Marr Chase as something that we're starting no matter what, even if he's one of the best wide receivers in the game. At this point, you have to take it week by week.