1025: Week 4 Sleepers

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1025 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings, thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first deposit of $5 or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code LATEROUND to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. New York? Call 8778-HOPE-NY. And Connecticut? Call 888-789-7777. 18 plus in most states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Ends December 31st. See terms at draftkings.com/promotions.

I said last week that I'd get back on track with the quarterback streamers, and that was mostly the case in week 3 I say mostly because CJ Stroud kind of s'd the bee, if you get what I'm saying. He scored just a little over 10 points. And Aaron Rodgers, he wasn't nearly as good as I thought he would be either. But Caleb Williams was a shallower sleeper. That was a spot-on call. Danny Dimes and Sam Darnold were fine. And Marcus Mariota, he saved a ton of my teams last week. I hope that was the case for you guys too. Elsewhere, Keenan Allen came through with another great day. Calvin Austin was a solid deep sleeper. And then there were solid plays like Kyle Pitts and Jawan Johnson. And then the defensive streamers, they were pretty good overall too. But I won't lie, there was plenty of disappointment. Wondell Robinson didn't have an encore. Troy Franklin, he had the usage but not the production. Josh Palmer saw his route participation rate drop. And the Packers wide receivers didn't do anything against Cleveland. Honestly, last week, I give it a 3 out of 10 It's been an up and down start to the year, which is to be expected because we have such little information. I'm ready for a big week 4 So let's get to these sleeper picks.

We'll kick off the show by looking at players rostered in 50-80% of Yahoo! leagues, and I've got one quarterback in this tier, and it's Justin Fields. This is of course assuming that Fields clears concussion protocol, which hasn't happened at the time of this recording. But Fields gets a Miami secondary this week that has not been good this year, and they've now allowed the ninth most adjusted points to the quarterback position. Now as we know, Fields has a lot of upside every single time he sees significant plays. Since his rookie season in games where he's thrown the ball at least 15 times, Fields is averaging almost 20 standard fantasy points per game. And for the record, if Fields is back this week, and if he looks good, after Miami, the Jets get Dallas, Denver, Carolina, and Cincinnati. So that's a possible four really solid matchups in five games for Justin Fields. At Running Back, there's just one for you this week. He's at 80% and it's Trey Benson. The Cardinals play on Thursday night against the Seahawks this week, and if I'm being totally honest, I don't really love this game on paper for fantasy purposes. The Cardinals have a 21-point team total. The pace of this game projects to be kind of slow. In Seattle, they have a pretty good defense. But the Seahawks have been better against the past this year than the run for fantasy purposes. And I fully believe that the Cardinals are going to use Trey Benson as their bell cow. That volume alone should make him an RB too. Packers wide receivers disappointed last week, but get ready. I'm going to be talking about a ton of them this week. Matthew Golden is the first one. We saw him run around on 84% of Green Bay's drop backs last week by far a season high. That route participation rate has gotten larger and larger each week so far this year. That turned into a season high 16% target share. The Packers get the early favorite as the best matchup for passing attacks in Dallas. I talked about this on the 10 Trends episode, but Dallas is giving up by far the most adjusted passing yards in the league at the moment. No team has allowed more adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers either, and only two teams are giving up a higher completion percentage on deep balls. I think Golden should have his best outing of the season this week. Quentin Johnston still isn't over that 80% mark, and it's hard to leave him off of this list. His route participation rates have been well over 90% over the last two weeks. He's seen at least a 20% target share in all three games this season. That's in an offense that number one is good, and number two has been first in pass rate over expected to start the year. This matchup against the Giants is a good one too. LA has an implied total over 25 points, and the Giants are the sixth best matchup for wide receivers and early adjusted points allowed numbers. So QJ is good to go. Keon Coleman came out hot in week one, and he's done very little since. That's sort of what we get with his Buffalo offense. Unfortunately, he's probably a better and best ball type player. With that being said, I like him against the Saints this week. New Orleans has seen the second highest percentage of wide receiver targets against them go to the perimeter this year, meaning teams have attacked the outside against New Orleans so far. Keon Coleman is a perimeter player. He's run about 12% of his routes from the slot this year. Meanwhile, the Bills have a ridiculous 32.5 point implied team total, and the Saints have been a top 10 matchup for wide receivers so far this year and adjusted points allowed. Coleman may not see the 11 targets that he had in week one, but he's not a bad play if you're in a pinch. It wouldn't surprise me if he finds the end zone this week. Now, on the other side of the field in that same game is Jawan Johnson, someone I'm going to keep bringing up on this show until his percent roster number gets over 80%. Johnson has seen 11, 9, and 8 targets in his first three games. He's had a target share per game rate of 24%, and he gets a Bills team this week that should force the Saints into another pass heavy script, so he's an easy volume play. Hunter Henry is coming off a really strong game against Pittsburgh, where he found the end zone twice, and I like him again this week. His route share could be higher, admittedly. He's maxed out at a 76% route participation rate this year, when we really want our tight ends to be consistently over the 80% mark. But he's had target shares of 18%, 13%, and 31% over his three games, and the Patriots get a Panthers defense that's had trouble against the position over the last year. New England has a decent 24.5 point implied team total, and Hunter Henry could help him get there.